NBA series bet and other play(s?) for Wed 5/21

[RBD]

Record (games): 18-14
Record (series): 0-1

After a disastrous 0-2 Tuesday night on article picks I'm a combined 33-33 for articles and forum plays, which means overall I'm down 3.3 in juice with a minimum of 11 games left in the season and a possible maximum of 21.

In other words, not a lot of time to bank some units and beat the NBA this year.

In other words, I have to be extra choosy with my picks.

Despite this, I'm going to indulge my, "I detest all New York sports teams" feelings and take the Pacers in this series.
Adding to my natural loathing of all teams New York is the fact that I laid -120 on Boston in round two, bringing the "I want revenge Factor" into play in round three (hopefully I won't have to carry it over into the next and final round.)

I'd like to play a side or total in tonight's game but I've got conflicting stats so I have to take a pass on them. So for my action tonight I went hunting for props to play. Still doing a little bit of work, I'll be back in a bit with whichever prop I decide on and the price on Indy after I do little shopping.

Update: I got +140 on Indy at our sponsor Betonline.
May have to pass on props tonight, couldn't get the number I wanted to get a bet in on AGAINST Brunson points scored.
I'll take another half hour to hunt around and see if I find something I like, I want action and tonight's game damn it!

Update #2: I'm going back to Nesmith points scored tonight.
His posted total is 12'.
He's gone over this number in 3 of the Pacer's last 5 games (one game he missed by a hook, came in at 12.)
He's got over this total in 9 of their last 15 games.

The Knicks are going to have to make a bit of an adjustment in this game coming off a series vs Boston, who play at one of the slowest paces in the league and have one of the NBA's best defenses.
No juice on this one, Dog odds are available.

My buys:
Indy series +140
Nesmith Ov 12', +102

[RBD]

In my home page article today I did a write-up on
"To hedge or not to hedge?"

I started writing it here in the forum because it relates to the post above and my bet on Indiana to win the series.
But as I was writing it I liked the way it came out and saw it as advice for others who might be considering a hedge so I submitted it for the home page.
As explained in the article, I'm hedging my play on Indiana in the series.

For accounting purposes I keep separate records for article plays and the ones here in the forum (even though it's all part of the same bankroll.)
Why?
Because I'm a record keeping nut and track everything!
In this case though I'm curious as to which picks will have a higher W %. It should be the forum plays because I have more time to handicap them whereas articles have a morning submission deadline that has to be met.

The Pacer's pick was posted here in the forum so that's where I'll count it. The Knicks hedge was in an article so that's where I'll account for the hedge.

Side note for anyone looking for edges on tonight's game.
The Pacers qualify for WF1.
WF1 Rd teams were 47-32 in the regular season, 59%.
Postseason they're at 8-3.

I'm not making any additional plays on the game unless I spot a prop I really like.
I've been rooting for Indiana for the first four games but because I now have a higher payoff on New York I have to switch allegiances and root for the Knicks ( rooting for ANY New York team is not something I like to do, but . . .)

[RBD]

Game five scenario played out as suspected (suspected, not expected) - NY got a Hm win.
They no longer have to win three in a row, just two.

Last night one of the TV announcers said, "The pressure reverts to Indiana now after tonight's loss."
Wrong.
There's added pressure for the Pacers 'cuz they didn't get it done last night, but NY is the one facing elimination in game six - THAT'S pressure.

I like my position here.
I'm guaranteed a profit no matter who wins.
I have a better chance for a larger profit today than I had going into game five.
I have a larger payoff with a NY team that is 6-2 ATS on the Rd this post season. If they steal gm 6 on the Rd they'll have ALL the momentum going into gm 7, AND they'll be playing a Pacer team on the verge of collapse, AND in front of their hometown NY crowd.

Nothing's a given in sports betting but IF NY takes game six then I go into gm seven with a play on a $-line Fav of approx -300 at a price of +450.
And I can hedge my hedge a little bit to increase my guaranteed take.
Life is good.

[RBD]

Game five scenario played out as suspected (suspected, not expected) - NY got a Hm win.
They no longer have to win three in a row, just two.

At the end of game five one of the TV announcers said, "The pressure reverts to Indiana now after tonight's loss."
Wrong.
There's added pressure for the Pacers 'cuz they didn't get it done in game five but NY is the one facing elimination in game six - THAT'S pressure.

I like my position here.
I'm guaranteed a profit no matter who wins.

I have a better chance for a larger profit today than I had going into game five.

I have a larger payoff with a NY team that is 6-2 SU on the Rd this post season.

If they steal gm 6 on the Rd they'll have ALL the momentum going into gm 7, AND they'll be playing a Pacer team on the verge of collapse, AND in front of their hometown NY crowd.

Nothing's a given in sports betting but IF NY takes game six then I go into gm seven with a play on a $-line Fav of approx -300 at a price of +450.
And I can "hedge my hedge" a little bit to increase my guaranteed take.
Life is good.

[RBD]

NY wasn't able to get another road win in game 6 and the series ended (just like Thibodeau's job.)

I pick up 1.4 on my Pacers series bet and give back one unit on the Knicks at +450, netting .4
I went into game 6 at -2.3, article and forum plays combined, so I enter the championship series at -1.9.

Normally that amount is recoverable but there are at most only seven games left, which means it's unlikely that with such limited choice I'll get any plays that fit the systems I use.
So my chances of beating the NBA this year are slim.
And I'll have to rely on props to do so.

I won't let my bankroll dip more than 5 NBA units so I've got some work to do if I want to keep playing.
Props take too long to handicap so I won't be able to get any in by my morning submission deadlines, so I'll be posting them in the forum if I play any.