WNBA for Tuesday June 3

[RBD]

Homepage column submitted using Seattle tomorrow with a "Wait to Buy" notice on it.

Bad read on my part, the line was Sea -8'.
I didn't think it would go up but it did.
I lost a point by waiting, -9' is the common number now and I just saw the first -10 pop up.

Although I think the number was too high even when it was at -8' I'm not willing to wait to see if it drops back down tomorrow.
Grabbed it just now at 9 and the hook.

[RBD]

Insomnia Boy checking in.
In my article that'll be up on the homepage tomorrow morning I talk about the WNBA tiebreaker rules for the Commissioner's Cup.

In the CC each team plays the other teams in its conference once.
WNBA posted tiebreaker rules are as follows:
1) Head to Head record
2) Point Differential
In the article I said it doesn't make sense to have a point differential tiebreaker when the winner for each conference will be decided by the team with the best record and the tiebreaker is Head to Head, and they play the other teams once.

The rule looked like it didn't make sense and it was bugging me, but here's where the point differential comes into play.
The second tiebreaker isn't for division play, it's for the championship game.
If the conference winners from each division have an identical record the team with the better point differential gets home court advantage for the CC Championship game.
Duh!

Based on the numbers posted in my CC article I'm going to do something different. For the 17 days of the tournament I'm going to play every Fav. (I think. Unless I start to lose my ass, or a CC play conflicts with one of my regular systems.)
Aside from the usual - trying to have a little fun - my goal for this endeavor is 57%. But I'll be happy with 54%.

The plays and record I post for any sport (except NASCAR which is pretty much dart throwing and self-indulgent bets on Caution Flags Over) are based on handicapping models of some sort that I have developed over the years. While my CC play isn't dark throwing it's not based on any of the models that I use either.
So I'll keep a separate record for it.

I'm not varying the size of my bets (I rarely do), CC unit size will be the same as my other WNBA play, I just want to separate it out for tracking purposes. And so I can refer to it next season if I want to try it again.

Missed out on the best numbers by not starting this yesterday as the Favs have all gone up a little.
Record-wise, the Seattle play will count for the article I used it in and here as a forum play.

(If none of the above makes sense, like I said, Insomnia Boy here. My brain's not working at 100%.)

CCF (Commissioner's Cup Favs) plays:
Ind -4'
Min -11'
Sea -9'

[RBD]

Good morning?

Oooookay, that was some late night rambling up there, eh?

Good moves as far as the buys go though as two of the three Favorites have gone up.

What looked like a bad buy on my article pick, Seattle -9' (because I didn't grab the opening -8') looks pretty good now as the Storm are now laying 10'. And there's added juice to that number so it may go even higher.

The Lynx went from the -11' I got bought them at last night to -12', with -13 starting to show up at a few places.

Only the Caitlin-less Fever stayed the same at -4'.

Today's handicapping homework - dig into those CC stats from last season, specifically that 19-11, 63% record on Favs.
I want to know:
Were there any road Favs and if there were what was their record?
What about BIG Favs? I want the records of teams favored by seven or more and by double digits or more.
I'm off to do some number crunching, if I see anything of value I'll post it here.

Update:
While digging deeper into last year's CC games I spotted something interesting. First, some basic stuff:
DD (Double Digit) Favs of 10 or greater were 4-1 at Hm, 0-1 on the Rd.
Semi interesting there, 4-1 is worth keeping an eye on.
But here's what looks really interesting - five of those six games went Over.

This is where I add my standard reminder - "What worked last season may not work this season."

But 4-1 on DD Hm Favs and 5-1 to the Over are certainly worth keeping an eye on in this year's CC.

The first games were played on Sunday, June 1st.
There were two DD Favs.
The Hm Fav was NY -18'.
They won by 48.
The game stayed Under 164 because Connecticut only scored 52 points.

The other was a Rd Fav, Minnesota -13.
They won SU by 11 points but lost ATS.
The game went Over 158 by 3 points.

LY, DD Rd Favs were 0-1.
This year they're also 0-1.
Might want to lay off of those if there are any more.

The Over is 1-1 in games with a DD Fav.

Out tonight's card we have two DD Favs, Sea & Min.
Min total opened at 156' and is now 159.
Seattle opened at 163' and is now 166.
BOTH totals have gone up by more than two points.
If I didn't already miss out on getting the best numbers I would have bought both games over based on last year's 5-1 on games with DD Favs.

Just some stuff to keep in mind for betting on games during this year's CC.

[RBD]

Day one of the Commissioner's Cup Favs experiment went well, 2-1.
Good thing the totals went up and I didn't buy them as they both stayed Under.

No games today, back tomorrow when we have a DD Rd Fav, which were 0-1 LY and 0-1 this year, too.

[RBD]

Record (regular plays) 2-3
Record (CCF's) 2-1

The "I'm going to bet all the CC favs" plan ends after one day.
There are two tonight.
One has a DD Rd Fav, a spot that was 0-1 LY and 0-1 this year so I'm not going to play that one.
The other is Phoenix and they have too many injuries (McConnell, Mack, Thomas, Copper) for me to lay them as a -6 Fav against a scrappy expansion club like GS.