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Records:
Regular plays 2-3
CC Favs 2-1
Total 4-4
I've got a couple of stats backing a play on the Golden State Valkaries today.
First up, they're a Double Digit Dog.
Overall this season during Commissioner's Cup play Double Digit Favs are just 3-4 ATS.
But it becomes an even more profitable and playable Fade when the DD Favs are on the Rd.
During Commissioner's Cup play, Double Digit Rd Favs were 0-1 last season.
This season there have been three Double Digit Rd Favs thus far in the Commissioner's Cup.
ALL THREE have failed to cover the spread, including last night's game where Atlanta went into Connecticut as 11-point Favs and lost SU 76-84.
The Las Vegas Aces are 4-2 SU on the season, 3-3 ATS.
They have been a Double Digit Fav twice and are 1-1, but both games were at home.
The Golden State Valkyries are just 2-5 SU but 4-3 ATS.
They've been Double Digit Dogs four times already this season, in just seven games, BUT they're 3-1 ATS.
So I've got two spots there that say take GS tonight, the league-based trend that says to play AGAINST DD Favs on the Rd, and the team specific trend that says the Valkyries are a value play when getting 10 or more points.
Looks good for Valkyrie buy, right?
I was all ready to put in my play but then I finished handicapping.
And I saw this:
WF2 says Golden State should be the Fav tonight.
Yeah, I had to double check those numbers but they're accurate, WF2 says a Double Digit Dog should be the Fav.
And WF1 says LV is the correct Fav and the point differential between the two qualifies it for an asterisk play.
This is only the second time this season I've had an asterisk spot in the WNBA. Back on Tuesday May 27th Connecticut qualified as the Fade.
They lost by 22 points.
So I've got a conflict here, a league base trend AND a team-based trend that say take the Double Digit Dog, but the play that's been the most profitable for me across all sports over the last 12 months says take the Fav.
So what am I going to do?
I'm going to take the Over.
I normally side with my models over league and team based trends but I have no gut feel on either team here to aid me in making my buying decision.
What I do have is a play from one of my systems for picking totals that says this one goes Under. It has a record of 6-8, telling me to Fade and go Over.
I also have a sub-category within that play that has a record of 1-2 on Unders this season.
The line opened at 159' but I see it as high as 161'.
Our sponsor Betonline has it at 161.
My play:
LV/GS Ov 161
Regular plays 2-3
CC Favs 2-1
Total 4-4
I've got a couple of stats backing a play on the Golden State Valkaries today.
First up, they're a Double Digit Dog.
Overall this season during Commissioner's Cup play Double Digit Favs are just 3-4 ATS.
But it becomes an even more profitable and playable Fade when the DD Favs are on the Rd.
During Commissioner's Cup play, Double Digit Rd Favs were 0-1 last season.
This season there have been three Double Digit Rd Favs thus far in the Commissioner's Cup.
ALL THREE have failed to cover the spread, including last night's game where Atlanta went into Connecticut as 11-point Favs and lost SU 76-84.
The Las Vegas Aces are 4-2 SU on the season, 3-3 ATS.
They have been a Double Digit Fav twice and are 1-1, but both games were at home.
The Golden State Valkyries are just 2-5 SU but 4-3 ATS.
They've been Double Digit Dogs four times already this season, in just seven games, BUT they're 3-1 ATS.
So I've got two spots there that say take GS tonight, the league-based trend that says to play AGAINST DD Favs on the Rd, and the team specific trend that says the Valkyries are a value play when getting 10 or more points.
Looks good for Valkyrie buy, right?
I was all ready to put in my play but then I finished handicapping.
And I saw this:
WF2 says Golden State should be the Fav tonight.
Yeah, I had to double check those numbers but they're accurate, WF2 says a Double Digit Dog should be the Fav.
And WF1 says LV is the correct Fav and the point differential between the two qualifies it for an asterisk play.
This is only the second time this season I've had an asterisk spot in the WNBA. Back on Tuesday May 27th Connecticut qualified as the Fade.
They lost by 22 points.
So I've got a conflict here, a league base trend AND a team-based trend that say take the Double Digit Dog, but the play that's been the most profitable for me across all sports over the last 12 months says take the Fav.
So what am I going to do?
I'm going to take the Over.
I normally side with my models over league and team based trends but I have no gut feel on either team here to aid me in making my buying decision.
What I do have is a play from one of my systems for picking totals that says this one goes Under. It has a record of 6-8, telling me to Fade and go Over.
I also have a sub-category within that play that has a record of 1-2 on Unders this season.
The line opened at 159' but I see it as high as 161'.
Our sponsor Betonline has it at 161.
My play:
LV/GS Ov 161