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Recap: 1-0
Record: 7-5
Review: My last play was back on 6/17.
Had Min -13.
They won by 14.
Next!
Today I have a couple games that qualify for the systems that I use but I have conflicts within them (example - one has a winning record for the Over in a game and the other has a winning record for an Under in the same game; conflict, no play.)
I'm looking at the Chicago vs Atlantic game.
Chicago played last night.
Last year these were a profitable spot for the Over, going 17-6, 73%.
But remember what I always say - "What works one season may not work the next."
This year we've had four spots.
The first two stayed Under.
The last two went Over.
So which way will the trend go?
Does the Over in the last two spots mean this is still a strong play for the Over and the first two games this year were just flukes?
I'd like to think so but hopefully not in today's game because I'm taking the Under 159'.
These are teams that are used to playing on weekday evenings. There's just something about Sunday games that tends to see them stay Under the posted totals.
Here's the record this season on Sunday games:
Overs 5, Unders 10, one push that could have gone either way depending on the number you got.
That stat favors Unders by a 2-1 margin.
That's a league based trend.
Let's look at the numbers when it's team specific.
Chicago has played two Sunday games, one Ov, one Un.
Atlanta has played two Sunday games, both stayed Under.
Three out of four stayed Under the posted total.
This Chicago team is a mess.
They're one game away from having the worst record in the league.
They're the second worst scoring offense in the league at just 76 PPG.
They have the worst defense in the league at 88 PPG but that's offset by the fact that Atlanta plays at the slowest pace in the league which should help keep the scoring down in this one.
This one open at 160'.
It's down to 159' now and that's where I bought it at.
Off to look at some props, we'll add to this post if I buy anything.
Update: For anyone looking for angles on the Chicago/Atlanta game there's this: as I mentioned above there have been four games with teams who played the night before (Gm 2 of B2B's.)
Those teams are 4-0 ATS.
At 4-0 I'd like to take a shot on Chicago but like I said they're just a mess right now, hard to trust them even at +16'/17 points. In their nine losses this year six have been by more than today's number.
My play:
Chi/Atl Un 159'
Record: 7-5
Review: My last play was back on 6/17.
Had Min -13.
They won by 14.
Next!
Today I have a couple games that qualify for the systems that I use but I have conflicts within them (example - one has a winning record for the Over in a game and the other has a winning record for an Under in the same game; conflict, no play.)
I'm looking at the Chicago vs Atlantic game.
Chicago played last night.
Last year these were a profitable spot for the Over, going 17-6, 73%.
But remember what I always say - "What works one season may not work the next."
This year we've had four spots.
The first two stayed Under.
The last two went Over.
So which way will the trend go?
Does the Over in the last two spots mean this is still a strong play for the Over and the first two games this year were just flukes?
I'd like to think so but hopefully not in today's game because I'm taking the Under 159'.
These are teams that are used to playing on weekday evenings. There's just something about Sunday games that tends to see them stay Under the posted totals.
Here's the record this season on Sunday games:
Overs 5, Unders 10, one push that could have gone either way depending on the number you got.
That stat favors Unders by a 2-1 margin.
That's a league based trend.
Let's look at the numbers when it's team specific.
Chicago has played two Sunday games, one Ov, one Un.
Atlanta has played two Sunday games, both stayed Under.
Three out of four stayed Under the posted total.
This Chicago team is a mess.
They're one game away from having the worst record in the league.
They're the second worst scoring offense in the league at just 76 PPG.
They have the worst defense in the league at 88 PPG but that's offset by the fact that Atlanta plays at the slowest pace in the league which should help keep the scoring down in this one.
This one open at 160'.
It's down to 159' now and that's where I bought it at.
Off to look at some props, we'll add to this post if I buy anything.
Update: For anyone looking for angles on the Chicago/Atlanta game there's this: as I mentioned above there have been four games with teams who played the night before (Gm 2 of B2B's.)
Those teams are 4-0 ATS.
At 4-0 I'd like to take a shot on Chicago but like I said they're just a mess right now, hard to trust them even at +16'/17 points. In their nine losses this year six have been by more than today's number.
My play:
Chi/Atl Un 159'