Tweet
Recap: 0-1
Record: 7-6
Review: Took the L train with the Under in the Chi/Atl game on Sunday.
I may have to stop using Atlanta, sides and totals.
I lost with them again last night, and remembered I lost with them in my first pick of the season, too.
I'm going to make time to go back over my plays this year, articles and in the forum, to see what my record is on Atlanta.
I may not have a good read on them this season and my numbers may be off.
KNOWING YOUR OWN RECORDS is as IMPORTANT as knowing the record of any team or trend that you look at.
Yet, so few betters track it.
Mistake.
I used the NY/GS game tonight for a play in my article today, with a "Wait to Buy" notice on it. The common number was 161', still is at many houses but one of our sponsors just put up 161 and I grabbed it.
In the article I said I'd share some stats on DD Favs.
I tracked these during the Commissioner's Cup.
When the Cup games ended I decided to look at DD Favs for the entire season, pre and post CC.
Here the numbers, ATS and on the Over:
DD Favs Pre CC:
4-6 ATS
Subcategory Hm/Rd
Hm 2-6 Rd 2-0
Ov 3-7
Hm 2-6, Rd 1-1
DD Favs CC Games:
7-7 ATS
Hm 6-2, Rd 1-5
Ov 5-9
Hm 1-7, Rd 4-2
Combined:
11-13 ATS
Hm 8-8, Rd 3-5
Ov 8-16
Hm 3-13, Rd 5-3
Looks like there's some pretty good spots that we could take advantage of.
For example, on totals we have a 67% Fade on the Over, at 16-8.
And it's even better Fading home teams on the Over at 13-3.
But, remember, jumping on trends is not a way to win at sports betting, although it's a method that a large number of bettors attempt to use.
Now let's add DD Favs, post CC games:
DD Favs Post CC:
2-4 ATS
Hm 1-2, Rd 1-2
Ov 5-1
Hm 3-1, Rd 2-0
All of a sudden, the Over doesn't look like an automatic Fade.
It's gone 5-1 since the CC games ended.
Here's the combined records, pre-CC, CC, and post CC:
13-17 ATS
Hm 9-10, 4-7 Rd
Ov 13-17
Hm 5-14, Rd 8-3
For the season it's still a losing play backing DD Favs at 13-17, a profitable Fade at 56%.
And, coincidentally Fading the Over gives you the same numbers and profit, 17-13, 56%.
Fading DD Favs on the Rd is even more profitable at 7-4, 63%.
Fading the Over on DD Fav Hm teams is 14-5, 73%.
Playing ON the Over when you have a DD Fav on the Rd is the strongest play at 8-3, 72%.
The question is will those numbers hold or will reversion toward the mean begin?
Tonight we have one game that qualifies and possibly a second.
The Las Vegas Aces are -19 at Hm against Connecticut.
The Liberty are -9' at Golden State but one or two books have it at -10 and all the places at 9' have extra juice on the Fav so by tip off time this one might also qualify.
I looked at both games looking for a play.
I already have a play on the total in the NY/GS game.
I'll be looking closer at the total in the Con/LV game, as well as the sides in both to see if there's anything else I'm going to buy. Looking at props too.
I'll have at least one more play today. Will post it ASAP.
Update: Most books now have NY at -10 so I'll add this game to my DD Fav chart.
Update, adding:
Natasha Cloud Ov 8' pts -109
Natasha Cloud Ov 3' rebounds -136
I'll be back with prices and numbers / stats for the play.
New York center Jonquel Jones missed the last two games and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. Natasha Cloud is a guard but she's seen increased minutes in those two games without Jones.
Her P/R lines were 8/3 and 5/5.
Only one of those would have been good enough for a win at today's number, the five rebounds she pulled down in their last game, at Seattle.
She hasn't had more than eight points in her last 10 games but before that she scored 16, 18, and 22 points
And the minutes I expect her to get tonight will likely surpass the minutes she's been on the floor for almost every game this season.
As for rebounds, she's surpassed tonight's number in just 6 of 13 games but if I'm correct about her seeing extra minutes tonight the 3' should be the easier of the two numbers I need to hit. Looking for a split at worst case with a good shot of hitting both.
Plays;
NY/GS Over 161
Cloud Ov 8' points
Cloud Ov 3' rebounds
Record: 7-6
Review: Took the L train with the Under in the Chi/Atl game on Sunday.
I may have to stop using Atlanta, sides and totals.
I lost with them again last night, and remembered I lost with them in my first pick of the season, too.
I'm going to make time to go back over my plays this year, articles and in the forum, to see what my record is on Atlanta.
I may not have a good read on them this season and my numbers may be off.
KNOWING YOUR OWN RECORDS is as IMPORTANT as knowing the record of any team or trend that you look at.
Yet, so few betters track it.
Mistake.
I used the NY/GS game tonight for a play in my article today, with a "Wait to Buy" notice on it. The common number was 161', still is at many houses but one of our sponsors just put up 161 and I grabbed it.
In the article I said I'd share some stats on DD Favs.
I tracked these during the Commissioner's Cup.
When the Cup games ended I decided to look at DD Favs for the entire season, pre and post CC.
Here the numbers, ATS and on the Over:
DD Favs Pre CC:
4-6 ATS
Subcategory Hm/Rd
Hm 2-6 Rd 2-0
Ov 3-7
Hm 2-6, Rd 1-1
DD Favs CC Games:
7-7 ATS
Hm 6-2, Rd 1-5
Ov 5-9
Hm 1-7, Rd 4-2
Combined:
11-13 ATS
Hm 8-8, Rd 3-5
Ov 8-16
Hm 3-13, Rd 5-3
Looks like there's some pretty good spots that we could take advantage of.
For example, on totals we have a 67% Fade on the Over, at 16-8.
And it's even better Fading home teams on the Over at 13-3.
But, remember, jumping on trends is not a way to win at sports betting, although it's a method that a large number of bettors attempt to use.
Now let's add DD Favs, post CC games:
DD Favs Post CC:
2-4 ATS
Hm 1-2, Rd 1-2
Ov 5-1
Hm 3-1, Rd 2-0
All of a sudden, the Over doesn't look like an automatic Fade.
It's gone 5-1 since the CC games ended.
Here's the combined records, pre-CC, CC, and post CC:
13-17 ATS
Hm 9-10, 4-7 Rd
Ov 13-17
Hm 5-14, Rd 8-3
For the season it's still a losing play backing DD Favs at 13-17, a profitable Fade at 56%.
And, coincidentally Fading the Over gives you the same numbers and profit, 17-13, 56%.
Fading DD Favs on the Rd is even more profitable at 7-4, 63%.
Fading the Over on DD Fav Hm teams is 14-5, 73%.
Playing ON the Over when you have a DD Fav on the Rd is the strongest play at 8-3, 72%.
The question is will those numbers hold or will reversion toward the mean begin?
Tonight we have one game that qualifies and possibly a second.
The Las Vegas Aces are -19 at Hm against Connecticut.
The Liberty are -9' at Golden State but one or two books have it at -10 and all the places at 9' have extra juice on the Fav so by tip off time this one might also qualify.
I looked at both games looking for a play.
I already have a play on the total in the NY/GS game.
I'll be looking closer at the total in the Con/LV game, as well as the sides in both to see if there's anything else I'm going to buy. Looking at props too.
I'll have at least one more play today. Will post it ASAP.
Update: Most books now have NY at -10 so I'll add this game to my DD Fav chart.
Update, adding:
Natasha Cloud Ov 8' pts -109
Natasha Cloud Ov 3' rebounds -136
I'll be back with prices and numbers / stats for the play.
New York center Jonquel Jones missed the last two games and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. Natasha Cloud is a guard but she's seen increased minutes in those two games without Jones.
Her P/R lines were 8/3 and 5/5.
Only one of those would have been good enough for a win at today's number, the five rebounds she pulled down in their last game, at Seattle.
She hasn't had more than eight points in her last 10 games but before that she scored 16, 18, and 22 points
And the minutes I expect her to get tonight will likely surpass the minutes she's been on the floor for almost every game this season.
As for rebounds, she's surpassed tonight's number in just 6 of 13 games but if I'm correct about her seeing extra minutes tonight the 3' should be the easier of the two numbers I need to hit. Looking for a split at worst case with a good shot of hitting both.
Plays;
NY/GS Over 161
Cloud Ov 8' points
Cloud Ov 3' rebounds