Wednesday - a bunch of plays

[RBD]

Recap: 2-0
Record: 11-11
Review:
My two plays were. . .
Gabby Williams Over 12' points -104 (she scored 16)
Gabby Williams Over 4' rebounds, -157 (she snagged 7)


I'll be coming in and out of this post all day with updates, reasons, records etc.

Kids Day in the WNBA, which means a lot of early starts.
First up is 11:00 a.m. EST, about an hour and a half from now.

Kids Day also means is an unknown factor for handicapping these games, one that I have no data on - WNBA teams do not usually play games at 8:00 or 9:00 in the morning.
I'll use the records that I have for these plays but none of these records include that extra factor.
Still, as always, I'll stick with my numbers.

8 AM game Seattle at Connecticut

Seattle and Indiana qualify for a subcategory I just started tracking this year where there's a big differential between my number and the books.
Overall record is 12-8 on Favs but 3-4 on Rd teams.
No edge for Rd teams.
Update: forgot to add, Big edge on home teams at 9-4.
The game also qualifies as an Under and one of my models, T2.
T2 record is 7-2, 5-2 on Overs.
Playing an Over in a game with Connecticut it's not something that sounds appetizing but when you look at their record their 8-9, just one game under .500.
Seattle is 11-8 to the Over.
These two met late last month and combined for 178.


Also taking the Fever.
WF2 says Golden State should be the Favorite.
WF1 disagrees and the point spread differential qualifies this as . . . an * spot.
For more info on the asterisk spot for WNBA games check my article from Monday on the Atlanta game.


I'll be back with more...


My plays:
Sea/Con Ov 155
Indiana -6'

More to come

[RBD]

Was so pressed for time with all these morning games on the schedule that I left something out of the post above.
Seattle was a Double Digit-digit Rd Fav.
Double Digit Favs are 17-22 ATS.
When there a Rd team they're 5-9.
Another reason to not take them, along with the play with the 3-4 record I mentioned above.
And . . . The Storm just lost.
SU.
As -17' Favs.
To the Sun.
The 2-16 Sun.

Also, for future reference, DD Favs are:
17-23 on Overs. Doesn't look like there's much of an edge when you look at 17-23 but break it down, dig deeper.
DD Hm Favs are 8-18 on Overs.
DD Rd Favs are 9-5 on Overs.
Suddenly, what looked like little value becomes extremely valuable, Fading Double Digit digit Hm Favs (69%) and betting ON the Over when they're on the Rd (64%.)

Seattle just lost as a DD Rd Fav AND the game went Over making those numbers now:
DD Rd Favs are 5-10, a 67% Fade.
DD Rd Favs Ov 10-5, 67%.


Both early games still going but the Seattle game is coming home a W; the Clarks are down by 9 at halftime.

Next up, Minnesota and Phoenix, 12:30 p.m. EST

WF1 says Phoenix should be the Fav.
WF1 is 14-10, 6-3 on Hm teams.

WF2 says Phoenix should be the Fav.
WF2 is 11-8, 6-4 on Hm teams.

When I have a match, both methods choosing the same Wrong Fav, the record is 3-0, 2-0 on Hm teams.

My play:
Phx +7

[recovering77]

Came back to say my oh my, has there been a correction in the WNBA since my comment a few weeks ago that favorites cover every game.

Underdogs have really started to even that out the past few weeks, especially on Sundays. I think underdogs covered every game on Sunday 2-3 weeks ago, and followed up with only 1 loss the Sunday after.

The oddsmakers themselves must be having a hard time setting lines for these games, because they're so off all the time. Like how does a 2-16 team beat a 12-7 team by 10, outscoring them by 18 in the 4th quarter as a 17 point underdog?

How does a Valkyries team win outright for the 8th time this season as a big underdog? Hats of to them for having a really solid team as an expansion team.

I haven't seen an expansion team this good like ever. The Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars were really good, but that was in their 2nd year, not their first.

Until Monday, GS had not lost consecutive games ATS all season. Such a cash cow. - But it's also the second time I've bet on them this season and they've blown a cover pretty badly.

Golden State also handed me the worst beat I've ever had in almost 25 years about a month ago. GS was +6.5 at Phoenix. They were WINNING by 8 with 3:26 left. Somehow lost by 9!

WNBA is such the wild wild west. I thought Euro ball was bad, but WNBA no lead is ever safe.

[RBD]

Recovering77,
Thanks for stopping in!

Just a heads up on expansion teams.
The WNBA is adding two next year, Portland and Toronto.
I'm sure some sorts bettors will look back to this season, and the success Golden State had, and look to factor it in on Regular Season Win totals if they're going to bet Portland and/ or Toronto.

But this season, Golden State was the only team added to the league so they had the available player pool all to themselves.
Portland and Toronto will have to split it.
Something I'll keep in mind when I'm looking at Regular Season Win totals next year.
I'm going to win my Golden State Regular Season Wins Over but will likely break even because I took Washington Un and they're playing better than expected. Also, I based that bet on the coach talking about the style of play he was going to employ, but he abandoned his "fastest pace in the league" strategy early on.