NBA 2/25

[RBD]

As mentioned in my article today, I have games tonight that fit the same profile as Dal/Brook last night.
The main play, T1, is now 30-15 on Overs.
And the subcategory that I also track is now 16-6 on Overs after updating my records this morning.

The two spots are GS/Mem and Sac/Hou.

To dig a little deeper I looked at the individual record for these four teams when they're in the T1 Over spot.

Memphis is 0-2, GS is 5-1.
Sac is 0-1, Hou is 3-1.

Ov/Un records:

GS 34-24 all games, 15-13 Rd
Mem 27-29 all, 15-13 Hm

Sac 29-30 all, 15-15 Rd
Hou 23-33 all, 8-18 at Hm

Those Houston numbers are pretty ugly for anyone looking at the Over.

The Warriors/Grizzlies game opened 226, now down to 225.
The Kings/Rockets opened at 222' now at 221'.

I wish the games were staggered so I could do an "IF" bet, but there's only about 45 minutes between tip-off times.

I can't use Houston in an Over, may take the GS spot though.
Want to look at some recent play from both teams and injury reports.

Will update here if I buy one of them.

Side note - I didn't get the best number on Detroit tonight but I didn't get the worst, either.
They opened at -5, were at -6 when I started doing the write up, and -7 when I finished. They're -10 now.

[RBD]

I've been looking at both of the games that fit the 30-15 spot and though it's hard to lay off a play that's hitting at 67% with 45 games accumulated in the data I can't see a 2-0 night for it. And anything less means I'm losing money.

The other choice is to pick one of them, but which?

Houston is a lousy team to use in an Over (8-18 at Hm) but, as I always say, "Over time, all stats eventually level out."
So maybe tonight?

If it was just one game that qualified I'd play the Over and take a chance.
Decisions, decisions...

Ah, what the hell.
Why go through all the work of handicapping and getting strong numbers if you don't use them?


GS/Mem Ov 224'
Sac/Hou Ov 221'

[RBD]

Also for tonight keep this in mind, from my article dated 2/17 on second half stuff to look out for:

Sacramento Kings in B2B’s
Game two:
SU 2-8
ATS 3-7
Ov/Un 7-3

AGAINST the Kings in Game two is a 70% ATS play.

And you have the same 70% advantage taking the Over in Game two.

This points to a team that is not very deep on the bench. And tired legs on the starters (a losing group of players even with fresh legs) leads to high scoring losses in Game two spots.

Next opportunity:
Thur 2/26 at Dal