NBA Notes for Friday 3/13

[RBD]

Had a good night last night, all three T1 Over spots came home winners.

And three more games qualify tonight.

The question is - do I press and hope to stay hot
or
take a well deserved night off (translation - I have conflicting stats that put me off the games tonight.)

I'll be digging deeper and making some decisions but in the meantime in case anyone's looking at these games here are the three that qualify for T1 Over, now at 43-22, a hair under 67% with 65 games charted.

Cleveland at Dallas
New Orleans at Houston
Minnesota at Golden State

I'll be back with an update and some more info later today.
No buys for me right now.

[RBD]

I'll be going back and forth between my logbook and stats in the Forum, passing along information bit by bit.

Looking a little deeper at the three plays tonight, let's check for matches first.
When both T1 and T2 pick the same game the record on Overs is 9-4.
Only one game matches tonight, the first one on the card, Cleveland/Dallas.

Next, I'll look at the subcategories I track.
There are two main ones I use.
One is now a 28-12.
The other is 8-2.

NO/Hou qualifies for the first one (28-12.)
Min/GS does, too.

Cleveland/Dal qualifies for the second one (8-2.)

Dallas played last night.
In Game two of B2B's Dallas is 5-6, edge to the Under.

And then there's this: Dallas has gone Under in eight straight games.

And . . .
All eight games have been Under the number the books put on tonight's game.

Yes, you could say that trend is due for a course correction but you could say the same thing about T1's record also.

The stats noted above are enough to keep me off that game.
Of the other games, if I play them both there are three possibilities:
Win both
Lose both
Or split.

I lose money on two of those three possible outcomes.

Yes, I said I'm not going to make the same mistake I made Tuesday when I should have bet all three spots.
And I did bet all three last night.
Just going on gut feel tonight, and not betting any of them.

Good luck with whatever you play tonight...

[RBD]

Everything is easy in hindsight, but . . .
I listened to my gut instinct that said "take the night off."
T1 goes 2-1 again.

I talk to myself off buying the Over in the Dallas game based on standard stats. And I didn't think the other two games would go 2-0 so I didn't buy the T1 spots.

I was correct about the other two spots going 2-0 but I was wrong about Dallas, who before last night had gone Under in eight straight games.


Now I'm dreading handicapping in the morning because I don't want any games to qualify because it puts me in that ugly position of having to buy a game on a trend I stayed off of the night before, and it won.

I hope someone read post number one in this thread, saw the place and the record, and their gut told them differently, and you picked up a profit on this play.

[RBD]

[QUOTE=RBD;n550131]Everything is easy in hindsight, but . . .
I listened to my gut instinct that said "take the night off."
T1 goes 2-1 again.

I talked myself off buying the Over in the Dallas game based on standard stats. And I didn't think the other two games would go 2-0 so I didn't buy the T1 spots, expecting a 1-2 day.

I was correct about the other two spots not going 2-0 but I was wrong about Dallas, who before last night had gone Under in eight straight games.

Now I'm dreading handicapping in the morning because I don't want any games to qualify for T1 because it puts me in that ugly position of having to buy a game on a trend I stayed off of the night before, and it won. And I sure as hell am NOT going to lay off it again.

I hope someone who's been riding this T1 spot along with me read post number one in this thread, saw the plays, and their gut told them differently, and you picked up a profit on the night.