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I had a write up all ready to go on the Atl/NY game to go over.
Then right before I submitted it I checked one more stat that I forgot about and it took me off the play.
In case anyone's looking for info here's some more stuff to consider.
From the article:
"Let's look at some numbers from the opening weekend of the playoffs. Favs have a solid lead over Dogs at 6-2.
Even more substantial, the Under has provided backers a solid profit as Overs are just 7-1. (CORRECTION 1-7)
Double digit Favs are 3-0.
Considering that the Over is 1-7 it's not surprising to see that all three of today's opening totals have gone down.
As for my own handicapping models, I've been a little bit late to catch on when it comes to totals.
T1 is 4-5; 2-5 Over, 2-0 Under.
T2 is 3-11, all plays Over, no Unders qualified.
I'm leaving Monday on the table by not fading those T2 Over spots.
And I have two today, Tor/Cle and ATL/NY.
Which puts me in that spot I hate - jumping on and already established trend.
Looking at the two spots I see that Tor/Clev is the only game that went Over this past weekend, so I'm not liking that play. And the game landed on 239, SEVENTEEN points over the posted total of 222.
Today's game opened at 224' and it's been bet down to 222'.
I'll pass.
Atlanta/NY opened at 217' and you can still get that number but some houses have already dropped the hook, some are as low as 216.
Game one of the series was 218, landed on 215.
Under but not by much.
I'm not liking it much, but let's see if I can find other reasons to support the Under in New York tonight.
Game one saw Atlanta shooting standard averages, but New York shot above their typical numbers hitting 48% on FG's and from the 3-point line. Odds are that's not going to happen again.
Let's take a look at the regular season meetings, where did they come in using today's total of 217'.
The first meeting came in at 253.
NOT what I'm looking for when trying to assess the Under tonight. That game was 35' points higher than tonight (and no, it didn't go into overtime as I hoped.)
The second game landed on 210.
But in that game the Knicks hit just 36 of 97 shots for 37% on FG's, and a horrid 9-42 from three point range.
Despite that terrible shooting the game still only landed six points shy of the number you'll probably be able to get tonight when it settles around 216.
The third and most recent contest landed on 213.
On the final shot of the game it looked like CJ McCollum hit a buzzer beating, game tying three pointer that would have put the total at 216 going into overtime but after review the shot was ruled too late, no basket.
Based on head to head performances over the course of the season I have to lean Over on this one, despite what my models and recent trends say.
But, as noted above, I've been ignoring the rules and going with my gut feel of the last week or so and I've done okay."
That was with the article ended and I was going to put it in my pic on the Over. But something was bothering me and I went to check my notes from last season.
I'll put what I found in the reply to this post.
Then right before I submitted it I checked one more stat that I forgot about and it took me off the play.
In case anyone's looking for info here's some more stuff to consider.
From the article:
"Let's look at some numbers from the opening weekend of the playoffs. Favs have a solid lead over Dogs at 6-2.
Even more substantial, the Under has provided backers a solid profit as Overs are just 7-1. (CORRECTION 1-7)
Double digit Favs are 3-0.
Considering that the Over is 1-7 it's not surprising to see that all three of today's opening totals have gone down.
As for my own handicapping models, I've been a little bit late to catch on when it comes to totals.
T1 is 4-5; 2-5 Over, 2-0 Under.
T2 is 3-11, all plays Over, no Unders qualified.
I'm leaving Monday on the table by not fading those T2 Over spots.
And I have two today, Tor/Cle and ATL/NY.
Which puts me in that spot I hate - jumping on and already established trend.
Looking at the two spots I see that Tor/Clev is the only game that went Over this past weekend, so I'm not liking that play. And the game landed on 239, SEVENTEEN points over the posted total of 222.
Today's game opened at 224' and it's been bet down to 222'.
I'll pass.
Atlanta/NY opened at 217' and you can still get that number but some houses have already dropped the hook, some are as low as 216.
Game one of the series was 218, landed on 215.
Under but not by much.
I'm not liking it much, but let's see if I can find other reasons to support the Under in New York tonight.
Game one saw Atlanta shooting standard averages, but New York shot above their typical numbers hitting 48% on FG's and from the 3-point line. Odds are that's not going to happen again.
Let's take a look at the regular season meetings, where did they come in using today's total of 217'.
The first meeting came in at 253.
NOT what I'm looking for when trying to assess the Under tonight. That game was 35' points higher than tonight (and no, it didn't go into overtime as I hoped.)
The second game landed on 210.
But in that game the Knicks hit just 36 of 97 shots for 37% on FG's, and a horrid 9-42 from three point range.
Despite that terrible shooting the game still only landed six points shy of the number you'll probably be able to get tonight when it settles around 216.
The third and most recent contest landed on 213.
On the final shot of the game it looked like CJ McCollum hit a buzzer beating, game tying three pointer that would have put the total at 216 going into overtime but after review the shot was ruled too late, no basket.
Based on head to head performances over the course of the season I have to lean Over on this one, despite what my models and recent trends say.
But, as noted above, I've been ignoring the rules and going with my gut feel of the last week or so and I've done okay."
That was with the article ended and I was going to put it in my pic on the Over. But something was bothering me and I went to check my notes from last season.
I'll put what I found in the reply to this post.
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