Tweet
Connecticut and Portland Prediction, Play, and Analysis on the Total
I like choices, but too many choices makes my handicapping head hurt. There are five games on the card and I have EIGHT spots that qualify for plays using my unique handicapping systems.
Not exactly sure which one(s?) I'll play, but I'll take you along as I go through my handicapping thought process.
Let's look at all eight spots.
Phoenix (Rd at NY) qualifies for a WF1 play.
WF1 is 2-1, 0-1 on Hm teams, 2-0 Rd teams.
Not a lot of data at 2-0, but undefeated is undefeated, 100% is 100%, so Phoenix looks like a possible today.
But New York is in an offensive slump lately and any one of these days they're going to break out and go back to scoring again.
Could tonight be the tonight?
Toronto (Rd) and Seattle (Hm) qualify for WF2 plays.
WF2 is 6-5, 1-3 on Hm teams, 5-2 on Rd teams.
Looks like a solid Fade of Seattle and a good spot to play ON Toronto.
Looking at my two models for choosing totals, I have nothing for T2, which is 13-8 on the season, strangely all Unders.
And for more strangeness, ALL five games today qualify for my T1 model.
ATL/Min, Phx/NY and Washington/Sea qualify as Overs, Chi/Tor and Con/Port qualify as Unders.
T1 has a record of 8-3, a combined 73%.
The breakdown is 4-1 Ov, 4-2 Un, so both models are hitting at 67% or better early this season.
So what to do, which spots to play?
All the records above are league-wide stats, based on all teams.
Maybe I can find some help choosing what to play by checking the team specific stats - how have these teams performed in these spots if they've been in them already this season?
Starting with the WF spots.
Phoenix at New York - no games qualified.
Toronto at Chicago - no games qualified.
Washington at Seattle - no games qualified.
Well, it looked good in theory anyhow, but in application it was no help at all.
Maybe I'll have better luck on the totals.
Atl/Min - no games qualified.
Phx/NY - no games qualified.
I'm beginning to think this is an exercise in futility.
Chi/Tor - Hah! I finally have one.
On 5/13, Toronto qualified for a T1 Under spot.
The total was 168, the game landed on 159.
That makes Toronto 1-0 in this spot.
But wait, there's more.
I found another one.
On 5/21, Toronto qualified as a T1 Under.
The total on the game was 174.
The game landed on 172.
Toronto is 2-0 in this spot.
Con/Port - on 5/22 Con qualified as a T1 Under.
The total was 166.
The game landed on 136.
That's a whopping 30 points fewer than the number the books offered on the game.
And on 5/25 Portland qualified as a T1 Under.
The total was 178.
The game landed on 155.
That's 23 points fewer than the number the books offered on the game.
Wash/Sea - no games qualified.
With both teams at 1-0, and by wide margins, Con/Port Un looks like my best candidate for a play tonight.
The game opened at 169.
The common number is now 166'.
One of my general rules on betting totals is if I miss the opening line and the new number is a movement of three points or more in the wrong direction, I lay off the game.
This one barely squeezes by with a differential of 2'.
I'm on it.
My play:
Con/Port Un 166'
Recap: 0-1
Record: 4-6
Review: On Monday 5/25, I used the Over in the Liberty's game because they were in the B2B spot.
I dropped by The PredictEm Forum to leave a note.
"There's been a 6' line move on the total.
A 6' drop is not the norm. I'm going to check the injury report to see if there's late news."
There was no late injury. Word leaked out that New York head coach Krista DeMarco was going to rest Ionescu because she recently returned from an injury, and he was going to reduce the minutes of some of his starters because they played the night before.
Going into the game, New York was averaging 92 PPG.
On Monday they scored just 74.
That's 18 points fewer than their norm.
And that's why I add notes in my database and on my calendar.
On July 12th, New York will be in Game Two of B2B's again. And my notes will remind me that Demarco is likely to rest his starters again, so factor that into the total if I'm going to bet it.
Keep a database of your plays.
Make notes.
As the saying goes, "Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it."
I like choices, but too many choices makes my handicapping head hurt. There are five games on the card and I have EIGHT spots that qualify for plays using my unique handicapping systems.
Not exactly sure which one(s?) I'll play, but I'll take you along as I go through my handicapping thought process.
Let's look at all eight spots.
Phoenix (Rd at NY) qualifies for a WF1 play.
WF1 is 2-1, 0-1 on Hm teams, 2-0 Rd teams.
Not a lot of data at 2-0, but undefeated is undefeated, 100% is 100%, so Phoenix looks like a possible today.
But New York is in an offensive slump lately and any one of these days they're going to break out and go back to scoring again.
Could tonight be the tonight?
Toronto (Rd) and Seattle (Hm) qualify for WF2 plays.
WF2 is 6-5, 1-3 on Hm teams, 5-2 on Rd teams.
Looks like a solid Fade of Seattle and a good spot to play ON Toronto.
Looking at my two models for choosing totals, I have nothing for T2, which is 13-8 on the season, strangely all Unders.
And for more strangeness, ALL five games today qualify for my T1 model.
ATL/Min, Phx/NY and Washington/Sea qualify as Overs, Chi/Tor and Con/Port qualify as Unders.
T1 has a record of 8-3, a combined 73%.
The breakdown is 4-1 Ov, 4-2 Un, so both models are hitting at 67% or better early this season.
So what to do, which spots to play?
All the records above are league-wide stats, based on all teams.
Maybe I can find some help choosing what to play by checking the team specific stats - how have these teams performed in these spots if they've been in them already this season?
Starting with the WF spots.
Phoenix at New York - no games qualified.
Toronto at Chicago - no games qualified.
Washington at Seattle - no games qualified.
Well, it looked good in theory anyhow, but in application it was no help at all.
Maybe I'll have better luck on the totals.
Atl/Min - no games qualified.
Phx/NY - no games qualified.
I'm beginning to think this is an exercise in futility.
Chi/Tor - Hah! I finally have one.
On 5/13, Toronto qualified for a T1 Under spot.
The total was 168, the game landed on 159.
That makes Toronto 1-0 in this spot.
But wait, there's more.
I found another one.
On 5/21, Toronto qualified as a T1 Under.
The total on the game was 174.
The game landed on 172.
Toronto is 2-0 in this spot.
Con/Port - on 5/22 Con qualified as a T1 Under.
The total was 166.
The game landed on 136.
That's a whopping 30 points fewer than the number the books offered on the game.
And on 5/25 Portland qualified as a T1 Under.
The total was 178.
The game landed on 155.
That's 23 points fewer than the number the books offered on the game.
Wash/Sea - no games qualified.
With both teams at 1-0, and by wide margins, Con/Port Un looks like my best candidate for a play tonight.
The game opened at 169.
The common number is now 166'.
One of my general rules on betting totals is if I miss the opening line and the new number is a movement of three points or more in the wrong direction, I lay off the game.
This one barely squeezes by with a differential of 2'.
I'm on it.
My play:
Con/Port Un 166'
Recap: 0-1
Record: 4-6
Review: On Monday 5/25, I used the Over in the Liberty's game because they were in the B2B spot.
I dropped by The PredictEm Forum to leave a note.
"There's been a 6' line move on the total.
A 6' drop is not the norm. I'm going to check the injury report to see if there's late news."
There was no late injury. Word leaked out that New York head coach Krista DeMarco was going to rest Ionescu because she recently returned from an injury, and he was going to reduce the minutes of some of his starters because they played the night before.
Going into the game, New York was averaging 92 PPG.
On Monday they scored just 74.
That's 18 points fewer than their norm.
And that's why I add notes in my database and on my calendar.
On July 12th, New York will be in Game Two of B2B's again. And my notes will remind me that Demarco is likely to rest his starters again, so factor that into the total if I'm going to bet it.
Keep a database of your plays.
Make notes.
As the saying goes, "Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it."
Comment