Week 3 Discussion

[jd08]

Dallas has played two of the worst teams in the league and made their offenses look halfway competent. They have yet to play a team with a defense as dominating as the Bears. I'd be surprised if the Bears defense surrenders more than 10 points at home. They will also create multiple turnovers which should give Grossman the field position that he needs to at least get enough field goals to lead the Bears to a 7 point win.

As far as the Atlanta thing, I'd stay far away from them. Joey Harrington??? Sure the Panthers looked like **** against Houston but if you follow the Panthers you know that they haven't won a home opener since 2003 and historically have a few "WTF" games every now and then. The weakness of the Panthers D is in their secondary. I greatly question Harrington's ability to exploit this weakness. The Panthers run D is pretty good and wasn't even that bad last week. They shut down Jackson in week 1 and should have no problem containing Dunn and Norwood.

The Panthers have also handled Atlanta the last two years on the road. They have had some of their best rushing success against the Falcons D, with Foster rushing for 150 two years ago in a 44-11 rout in the Georgia Dome, and last year they threw the ball a total of 7 times and won the game by utilizing a ball control offense splitting carries between Foster and Williams.

If they can establish a running game yet again, the offense will open up for Steve Smith to torch Deangelo Hall. The Falcons gave up a ton of yards to Adrian Peterson two week ago. I predict a similar effort this week and the Panthers will win this game by 10.

[CuseFan10]

Did you read what I wrote or did you stop at the first sentence and then write an A + B = C response. In roulette the outcome of the last turn of the wheel has no effect on the outcome of the next spin, however in football the lines are driven significantly by public perception so if the public begins betting dogs based on the outcome of the week before then the lines will reflect that giving more value to the favorites. The key word is value I didn't say every favorite was going to cover. Without all those dogs covering last week I put the Indy line to open at a touchdown and the San Diego line to open at atleast 6. Now there is value on the favorites, see what I am talking about? Hey are you one of those guys that gets two sentences into a post and reacts too quickly posting a reply that is off base and acusitory without factual substantiation.

Yea, but the public doesn't do things that like. They are the public, and for the most part, they are uninformed people who consistently will lose. The general betting public has no clue that so many dogs covered last week. No clue whatsoever.

Also, the Indy line is 6/6.5 so what is the point there if you thought it would be 7? Vegas knows they can't set it above 7 because knowledgeable bettors will probably hammer that realizing that Houston is better (especially on the D Line). Also, Andre Johnson's status is uncertain (if not out) so that also suppresses the line. As for your San Diego/Green Bay point, maybe Vegas just realizes that Green Bay is pretty good and San Diego is lost with Norv Turner at the helm (like every team he's coached has been)? The Packers finished great last year and are building on that now with an up and coming defense while the Chargers are still trying to figure out how to replace every coach they had.

I wasn't trying to insult you, my point was (And UDoggie agreed) that what happened lats week doesn't have much effect on this week - in my opinion.

[Underdog88]

Some favs I'm looking into are:

Balt-8
Chi-3

Another road dog i like is jax+3. This line also moving in favor of denver despite the heavy picks on denver. Cutler has been turning the ball over more than i expected this yr and it doesnt get any easier going from oakland to jax defense. Their front 7 are great and thats what you need to stop denver who loves to run. The jags ground game will need to get going, but i think they can churn out a win in the mile high city.

Agree with all for pretty much the same reasoning. The Ravens were goofing off last week late... I think they put a real hurting on the Cards this week. That may be in a 2 teamer with the Bills for me. Romo on the road in a hostile environment/big stage vs. a defense. At the same time the argument can be made for Dallas with how piss poor the Bears Offense has been. i don't like having to rely on the sprecial teams to generate offense LoL. I still think Dallas has a bad secondary, but it's more of a question of whether or not Rex makes the throws. What's the status of CB Newman? As long as he's out I'm sceptical of the Dallas secondary.

Jax could be live- Denver escaped two games with GW field goals. Would usually be a momentum builder, if those 2 teams weren't Buffalo & Oakland. Denver nearly loses their first 2 despite having the most yds gained in the NFL @ 455? Jax has the D at times to really wreak havoc, & Garrard looked good vs. ATL. For some reason I'm thinking this could sail over, anyone remember when Jax went into Wash last year & it was touted as a defensive battle? Game ended up totalling in the high 60's...

[kidtrax18]

whatever

I wasn't trying to insult you, my point was (And UDoggie agreed) that what happened lats week doesn't have much effect on this week - in my opinion.[/QUOTE]


What happened last week doesn't have an effect on what happens this week (Derek Andreson threw for 6 TD's), but its a fact that what happened last week effects the lines, and not only effects them but effects them substantially. If you are the type of guy that treats sports betting like roulette (a 50/50 coin flip) then fine. If you want to remain ignorant to line movements and the publics belief then that is also fine. If you want to guess blindly with your bets or be informed, that is also your perogative. Actually its not worth it to argue with you. You obviously wanted to insult me (which is fine) or you wouldn't have posted that its cool good luck with your bets I am confident in my knowledge and don't need to keep this feud up with posts. Have a good season. Best of Luck.

[rjp]

I agree with everything you are saying however the fact that so many dogs covered last week brings value back to the favorites.

You have six posts and you feel you can call out other posters with garbage like this?

Go pickup a real book on probability theory and you'll realize how misguided you are.

Also, pickup a book on psychology while you're at it. The average Joe is more likely to feel the favorites are "due", thus the odds are such that the underdogs are still a good bet because the favorites will be heavily backed again by Joe square.

The Patriots line is a perfect example of this.

[Kevin]

There is some great info in this thread.

It would be golden if people didnt recommend others to read certain books or learn certain stuff.

We're never gonna all agree on games, thats whats so great about this place.

Lets talk opinions, facts and hypothesis and keep the personal shots down please.

You guys are some of the best posters on this board.

I think you all make some great points! Take the gloves off and talk it out. Great info in this thread!

[Kevin]

BTW,

It pains me to say it, but I think ATL gets a win this week.

[Larry]

There is some great info in this thread.

It would be golden if people didnt recommend others to read certain books or learn certain stuff.

We're never gonna all agree on games, thats whats so great about this place.

Lets talk opinions, facts and hypothesis and keep the personal shots down please.

You guys are some of the best posters on this board.

I think you all make some great points! Take the gloves off and talk it out. Great info in this thread!

This is why he is the leader of the forum. Great point Kevin.

[Q-Unit]

If I've learned anything, its that probability has little to do with anything in regards to sports betting.

it can be argued, and maybe I am way off, but can you measure:

a) outside influence such as, injuries, teams choking, referee calls that affect outcomes be it intentionally or human error, or the right call.

b) simply a bad coach being dominated by a better coach

c) players who are human, just playing out of their minds, beyond their average talent level, or players who suck it up, playing substantially below what they are capable of. It's a different story if we are judging numbers, robots, or physical things that are mostly controllable. However the fact is that there is no way anyone can predict player A will snap and step on player B's nuts, drawing a 15 yard penalty that ends up ultimately costing Team A of Player A a shot at a TD, and they settle for a FG which results in a loss, or a loss ATS.

d) that brings it lastly to emotion. when you deal with sports and human beings, emotion is the one thing almost impossible to predict and "measure" how it will affect player(s) and their teams. its a big factor, but certainly not the only variable in determining the outcome of a game.

I really think its a combination of everything: stats, player/team attributes, the history, emotion, and really just luck.

you cant just rely on one thing, but actually the sum of the parts.

doesn't mean I can pick winners :beer2: just can only hope! LOL

[kidtrax18]

Wrong thread I guess. I just wanted to talk about the week thats ok, I'll post somewhere else. Its very convienient to be tough online. I'll move my opinions else where and post my picks on sunday. Like I said good luck with your picks and have a good weekend

[gladgarbage]

In the Dallas/Chicago game, I think Lovie is a better coach than Phillips and he will throw many different looks at Romo and confuse him. Remember what Chicago did to Seatlle last year in a primetime game and that comeback vs Zona on Monday Night. I think Lovie gets up for these games and showcases his coaching talents. He has the ability to make adjustments and will find a way around injuries and like udogg88 said the Dallas secondary is suspect and I think Rex will have a good game(he usually plays well 1 in 3 LOL)

[Stifler's Mom]

I hope no one takes offense that I'm about to side with a "newbie", but I agree with this guy for the most part.

He is 100% CORRECT in stating that the lines ARE affected by alot of dogs covering last week, and that things like Cleveland scoring 51 points and how the public will react to it are most certainly taken into account when the lines are made. Unfortunately for them, they fail to take into account that Cleveland also gave up 45 or whatever it was.

That is the entire problem and is a huge reason why the public will always lose. Overreaction to one game....good or bad, and not taking ALL factors into account....just the ones they WANT to see.

But the oddsmakers know they'll do it, time and time again, and they post lines accordingly.

There is also evidence of this in that the public is on:

Detroit - 80% ATS and 85% ML as a +6 or so road DOG, because they're 2-0 and Philly has looked bad. When the hell did the public EVER play this big of a road dog at 85%?

Arizona - 73% ATS and 71% ML as a +7.5 dog. Again, when does the public EVER back road dogs like that? Especially ones getting over a TD?

Cincinnati - 76% ATS and 91% on the ML as a +3.5 road dog. This team gave up 51 pts last week to a Browns offense that has been hapless for years, and in week 1 was VERY LUCKY to win at home against a Baltimore team that had 6 turnovers, and still had forced OT had it not been for a horrific offensive pass interference call in the end zone? Now they're expected to go into Seattle, who also never loses at home, and regroup to pick up the "W"? Are you kidding me?

Cleveland - 69% ATS (ML n/a) as a +3 dog at Oakland. A team scores 51 on a bad defense, and all of a sudden they're gonna pick up the road win against a team who played real tough at Denver last week and should have won SU? Did the public forget the Brownies gave up 45 points last week and got the bejesus kicked out of em in week 1 by the Steelers?

Dallas - 67% ATS and 91% ML as a +3 dog at Chicago. All of a sudden the Bears suck so bad they can't win a home game against a team with a questionable defense, and the Dallas offense is just so damn good they're going to light up the scoreboard at Soldier Field?

St Louis - 62% ATS and 73% ML as a +3.5 to +4 point road dog. Now just what he hell are they thinking here? St Louis is 0-2, while Tampa played Seattle relatively tough on the road and spanked the Saints at home. I can't see how this pick isn't a direct result of the public swinging to dogs rather than faves, unless 0-2 is suddenly good?

Minnesota - 60% ATS and 91% ML as a road DOG, because KC has looked bad in 2 road games, one vs the 2-0 Texans and one vs last year's NFC champion....so lets just go ahead and fade them now at home, where they rarely lose against a team known for it's struggles outdoors and on the road.

So there's 7 road dogs the public is ALL OVER this weekend. When has that EVER happened before.

Bet just all 7 of those faves and i bet the worst you get is 5-2. The public is gonna get drilled again this weekend IMO, but not because they're playing all the faves for a change, but because they're over reacting to last week's games.

[emv01]

That's one hell of a write up Stif..Good info..

[Stifler's Mom]

Thanks :thumbs:

I'm not saying every one of these faves will cover....but my point is that it's clear that the public is over reacting to #1 all the dogs covering last weekend, and #2 they're failing to take everything into account when making their picks.

The Rams game is a clear example. The public obviously thinks they're still a good team because they won the super bowl like 8 years ago or something like that, LOL, or they're just thinking that this is the year of the dog. Either one is pretty bad thinking, and unless you have a better reason than "TB sucks", playing on the piss poor Rams isn't a good idea either.

The oddsmakers aren't dumb. They knew they were going to get lopsided public action on these lines, and on many of them it's offset by sharp action on the other side.

Seattle/Cincinnati is the best example. Line opens at CIN +2.5, public drills the **** out of them as a dog, and it moves to +3.5? Think there might be sharp money on the Seachickens?

Take a line like SD/GB. I don't think the books were sure how the public would side on this one with GB being 2-0, and SD getting their lunch handed to em on SNF by NE, even though SD is always a public fave for the most part...so they opened it at SD -3.5. Just 66% are on SD, but the line has moved to SD -5.5. I often see games where there are far more than 66% on the fave, and the line doesn't move that much. Either there's sharp money on SD or they've just moved the line to a point that's drawing more even action for them. Either way, it's pretty obvious there's no sharp money on GB this weekend, cause there's been no "buy back", which is the public driving the line to a certain number, then the sharps knocking it back down once they get the number they want, which did happen with Indy/Hou. Indy got driven from -5.5 to -6.5 by the public, and now it has dropped back to -6 because at every book but the mega square ones like Bodog and SIA, sharp money bought Houston +6.5 back to Houston +6 at the ones like Pinnacle, Olympic, Bet Cris and 5dimes.

No, the sharp money isn't always right, and I never said any of these plays were guaranteed to win or lose (everyone here knows me better than that), but I'd certainly rather be with it than against it, and I'd sure as hell rather be with the sharp money than the public money, lol

[homedawg]

Thanks :thumbs:

I'm not saying every one of these faves will cover....but my point is that it's clear that the public is over reacting to #1 all the dogs covering last weekend, and #2 they're failing to take everything into account when making their picks.

The Rams game is a clear example. The public obviously thinks they're still a good team because they won the super bowl like 8 years ago or something like that, LOL, or they're just thinking that this is the year of the dog. Either one is pretty bad thinking, and unless you have a better reason than "TB sucks", playing on the piss poor Rams isn't a good idea either.

The oddsmakers aren't dumb. They knew they were going to get lopsided public action on these lines, and on many of them it's offset by sharp action on the other side.

Seattle/Cincinnati is the best example. Line opens at CIN +2.5, public drills the **** out of them as a dog, and it moves to +3.5? Think there might be sharp money on the Seachickens?

Take a line like SD/GB. I don't think the books were sure how the public would side on this one with GB being 2-0, and SD getting their lunch handed to em on SNF by NE, even though SD is always a public fave for the most part...so they opened it at SD -3.5. Just 66% are on SD, but the line has moved to SD -5.5. I often see games where there are far more than 66% on the fave, and the line doesn't move that much. Either there's sharp money on SD or they've just moved the line to a point that's drawing more even action for them. Either way, it's pretty obvious there's no sharp money on GB this weekend, cause there's been no "buy back", which is the public driving the line to a certain number, then the sharps knocking it back down once they get the number they want, which did happen with Indy/Hou. Indy got driven from -5.5 to -6.5 by the public, and now it has dropped back to -6 because at every book but the mega square ones like Bodog and SIA, sharp money bought Houston +6.5 back to Houston +6 at the ones like Pinnacle, Olympic, Bet Cris and 5dimes.

No, the sharp money isn't always right, and I never said any of these plays were guaranteed to win or lose (everyone here knows me better than that), but I'd certainly rather be with it than against it, and I'd sure as hell rather be with the sharp money than the public money, lol

I agree 100% :goodjob:

Stif, you should write a book...:chaching: