question regarding lines

[yomonte]

In week one, two games opened withnfav's at -2 1/2. One moved to 3. Both fav's covered open and close. There has not been one game where the team did not cover open and closing lines. An exception for week three where I was out of town and did not record closing lines could have been Min@KC, Cle@Oak, Cin@Sea, Indy@Hou, Mia@NYJ where 3 pushed opening. Hopefully Stif can send me the closing lines from SI cause those were the only games that came into play on open and close. Lines of 2 1/2 or less, the fav is 4-1 with three being home fav's. An away dog covered a line of 1 1/2. The under was 3-2 in those events. Doesn't look like a buy is in order and past history has been the same. Sure it will come into effect, but rare.

There is alot of good info in this thread. Grab a couple of beers and a doob and do yourself a favor LOL

[Fish2006]

Stif makes astute points all the way around.

Fish, that half point buy on the golden gophers last week wasn't an astute recommendation. It was a we're drunk in Vegas, I could see that game landing around 14, dont get caught on the wrong side, oh and you can afford the extra ten bucks to lay lol.

If I was gonna do this right and be super stingy and try to be as sharp as possible, I would lay -3 never buying a half point and on any dogs +2.5 or less down to a pickem I would play the moneyline.

I believe thats what true sharps do.

lol - I was so drunk last weekend I would have bought the half-point on the breakfast buffet if they offered it!

Thanks for the clarification Kevin - maybe there should be an article on the site about the perils of buying the half-point, if there isn't already.

[Kevin]

BTW,

I am glad to see your eyeballing dogs hodown.

I think the public is in for a real fricken bloodbath this week. These lines are nasty.

[Kevin]

Stif makes astute points all the way around.

Fish, that half point buy on the golden gophers last week wasn't an astute recommendation. It was a we're drunk in Vegas, I could see that game landing around 14, dont get caught on the wrong side, oh and you can afford the extra ten bucks to lay lol.

If I was gonna do this right and be super stingy and try to be as sharp as possible, I would lay -3 never buying a half point and on any dogs +2.5 or less down to a pickem I would play the moneyline.

I believe thats what true sharps do.

[rjp]

Just wanted to throw a little data in here:

If the true odds are +2.5 +100, then an equivalent price is roughly +3 -120. Just a quick check shows that buying from +2.5 to +3 at Bookmaker can be done for -135! A ripoff, for sure. :thumbs:

[rjp]

The problem with buying points is that 99.9% of all books make you pay too much. There are some exceptions, like the number 17, but rarely are lines this high so most shops don't seem to care if you buy through 17 or not.

Buying +2.5 to +3 to increase push rate doesn't provide you with a better bet as you're going to be charged too much.

[Stifler's Mom]

I also think too many overlook the importance of +4 as being a "key" number....possibly even more so than +3, and definitely more important than +7.

[Stifler's Mom]

On balance, I would go with whatever Stif is saying - as he actually knows the stuff (versus me anyway). I am as novice when it comes to capping as you get.

Kevin was the culprit in telling me to buy the half point to get to 14 on Minny/Perdue last weekend (which, of course, I ended up doing, but accidentally getting 14.5, and accidentally winning). Is the half point something you just do on big dogs at 7 intervals?

Basically what I was saying that while I think it's wise to try and get the half point.....I just don't think it's worth it financially, as in it won't help you cash often enough in the long run to justify paying extra money to get it.

If i were to buy a point, it would be ON to a push (+2.5 to +3 for example), not the other way around, since a push doesn't hurt me.

Just my opinion.

[Stifler's Mom]

please dont tell me you are on the giants then this week stif.

LOL, I will be....but when you look at my record this far, I don't think it much matters :puke:

[Fish2006]

On balance, I would go with whatever Stif is saying - as he actually knows the stuff (versus me anyway). I am as novice when it comes to capping as you get.

Kevin was the culprit in telling me to buy the half point to get to 14 on Minny/Perdue last weekend (which, of course, I ended up doing, but accidentally getting 14.5, and accidentally winning). Is the half point something you just do on big dogs at 7 intervals?

[hodown]

all this is helpful, and i understand that diferent people have different view points. obviously the best cash here is to take the +2.5 dog ml. having multiple books is a great idea, but its just hard as hell getting money in at some of these places, and my bank is especially difficult to deal with concerning direct deposit. theres not many worse feelings in the world than when you lose a game by 0.5 pts, especially if you didnt buy the extra point, but i understand that most games dont fall on the line. i noticed that many games this wk are standing at -2.5 and wanted to get some extra info from you guys on this. thx, and gl this wk

[Daws1089]

please dont tell me you are on the giants then this week stif.

[Stifler's Mom]

I think buying OFF a push is worthless. Pushing doesn't hurt you any, and it is going to cost more when you lose.

I personally think buying points is worthless period though, so I guess that would stand to reason. The only reason books let you do it is because, like everything else (mainly teasers and parlays), it benefits THEM....and if you have multiple books (especially a "square" book like Bodog, SIA, BetUS, etc) you can nearly always get the half point you want on that dog, and sometimes even more, for "free" (meaning at -110 or better). I think failing to have multiple books and not getting the best line at the best price available is one of the biggest mistakes many people make, if not the biggest.

Also, an extremely abnormal amount of games landed on the number in the NFL last week. This is the exception, not the norm. If that was the case, you could just teaser every game, every week, any way you wanted, and squash the books.

With that being said, I also feel faves of -2.5 are normally bad plays to begin with. In MOST cases, if the oddsmakers felt the -2.5 fave was a strong play, the line would be -3, and the -2.5 is just there to entice people to play the -2.5 fave and deter others from playing the dog at +2.5, since they'd see a better chance of winning at +3.

How many times have you heard "I'd like it more at +3, or I'd play it if it was +3, but it's a no play at +2.5?"

And at the same time "I got it at -2.5, but I wouldn't have played it at -3"

Exactly how they want you to think.

As a rule of thumb, I avoid -2.5 faves like the plague in the NFL, and often bet the other side....unless I have a real good reason not to.

[gladgarbage]

If you like a +2.5 dog to win maybe look into taking some ML action seeing that a dog that covers 2.5 most probaly wins SU.

[Fish2006]

I watched a very astute sports investor catch at least 2 times by buying that ever famous 1/2 point last weekend, smack in the middle of the largest sportsbook in the country.

I hope you are not talking about my performance at the LV Hilton last weekend... while I would love to say it was pure skill (happened twice, once taking Minny buying off 14 on the Minny/Perdue game, time 2 buying to -2.5 from -3 on KC) - it has nothing to do with skill - the 14.5 I got was by accident - I thought I was buying from 13.5 to 14, and like a dumbass, didn't see the line move. The next two times I did it were from pure superstition :glass: - the second time, accidentally buying from +3.5 to +4 on JAX when, again, I wasn't paying attention - the last one clearly being a class "a" **** up.

That said, I can see where you do it - generally, buying off a 3, 7, 10, or 14 is probably a good idea - buying to a push probably isn't.