***Week 5 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

Last week we had great discussion, & I think most guys here fared well. Let's put out heads together for some more winners! The Homedogs are scarce this week...


Chiefs+2 vs Jags

Rams+3.5 vs Cards

49ers+3.5 vs Ravens

Bills+10 vs Cowboys



The Chiefs are off a road win as 14 pt dogs, now dogged at home to the Jags. Curious to see who the public will back. Tough call, not sure I want to go against the Jags.

Niners without Alex Smith this week, so backing the homedog would mean backing Dilfer. Ravens off a loss @ Cleveland, not really sure what to make of that team right now, I think they are better than they have played, but injuries on D haven't helped. SF's offense is in shambles, but the Ravens haven't won a road game. I won't be backing the Niners, & road chalk with the Ravens right now is a no no....maybe an under play.

The Rams are horrible, Jackson out right?. Pretty bad when the Cards are road chalk to anyone. However, it's usually not a good idea to play on a road team that's favored after a su win as dogs. This would be a very tough play, but I think the Rams could be live....

Bills are the best homedog IMO. A MNF game here for the first time in 13 years (I was at the last one). Dallas in a sandwich spot, as they are facing the Patriots next week. Possible look ahead game. However, Romo could potentially throw for 350+ vs Buffalo's secondary. More thoughts on this game to come. Right now my other leans (without having looked too deep into the games)

Falcons+9

Saints-3

Steelers-5.5

Jets ml


Have to go to work, just wanted to get some chatter started. Who are you guys looking at?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I'm looking at the Chargers to (finally?) have a good performance, and get the win as a slight dog in Denver...two struggling teams, but SD has more talent...and with LT, I think they get it done against Denver's horrible, horrible run defence (181 yds p/g!). Travis Henry also looks to be hobbled for Denver...one bright spot in their loss at Indy.

I'm also on the Cards laying points on the road. Bought it today at -3. Yup, that's right....with all the problems in STL, I think this line is a gift actually, regardless of Zona's road history. Actually, Zona has covered both numbers on the road this year, and won outright as a 6.5 dog in STL last year...and these are two different teams this year (Cards better, STL way worse). Also like the fact that Warner is getting some playing time, looking good, and will be returning to the "turf" where he was the greatest show on. I think him, Bolden & Fitzgerald go off on that secondary.

Sorry, UD...but I will likely be on the road fav once again on MNF with Dallas. I just don't see how Buffalo's secondary will be able to keep Romo under 400 yards. Nice little win by the Bills against NYJ last week, but I don't see how the can stop the Dallas offence, and the Cowboys have shown the ability to cover big numbers against mediocre teams, I know, I've cashed all 4! I see more of the same. I realize eveyone here will be on Buffalo as a sexy homedog, with a million reasons why, but not me....Dallas rolls big. lol.

Also looking to back Atlanta (hope to get 10) against maybe the slightly overated Titans...thinking that number should be more like 6.5, and I'm also looking closely at the Steelers, back home in the friendly surroundings of Heinz Field...I think they are still an elite team, but were in a bad spot travelling to Zona last week. I think they put a licking on the Seahwaks playing away from their crazy fans in the Northwest.


Anyway...those are the 5 games I am looking at this week so far....2 dogs, 3 favs..., and I'll also look at the Sunday nighter, as I always like to have at least a small play on that one...Thanksgiving weekend up here this weekend, so I'll likely be partying for that one...definitely want some action. Most likely Packers minus a FG, or the Under....we'll see.

[dananderson32]

the one that jumped out to me the most is new orleans -3 at home against carolina especially if jake is out for carolina.....

[Stifler's Mom]

Once again, the home dogs are all good plays.

JML - Why would you want to back SD right now? I mean I'm not exactly thinking Denver is any good, but SD is in shambles, and it's looking like some of them are quitting on the season already, judging by body language (on field) and interviews and such. No way I would back that mess right now. And, I don't know what you mean about everyone seeing Buffalo as a sexy home dog. There's 93% on Dallas right now, and I think the consensus around the country is that Buffalo sucks, and isn't even worthy of being on the same field as Dallas. I don't see anything over 20% backing BUF this Monday night.

As far as the home dogs:

The Ravens just aren't very good from what I've seen. Their D isn't doing crapola, and their O is probably worse. They should not be a road fave against anyone right now. Neither is SF any good, but Dilfer with a week to prepare brings more to the table than Alex Smith IMO, who hasn't done jack **** since entering the NFL. I can't help but wonder how many super bowls Baltimore may have won had they KEPT Dilfer instead of all the dillholes they had at QB the last few years....

Arizona should be a road chalk....um, NEVER. And like you said Udog, playing a road chalk that won last week as a home dog is NFL suicide.

KC makes a good home dog every time IMO. They don't lose at Arrowhead too often, and certainly not often enough that you couldn't just blindly play them as a home dog every time they are such and come out ahead. In addition, it seems they're coming together a little.

I like the spot for the Bills, not the match up, but I see no way that they can't possibly be looking ahead to NE next week, and the only teams that seems to be able to blow out Buffalo at home in the last few years are PIT and NE, for whatever that's worth.

Others:

I like the Aints off the bye week. CAR is just plain horrible. Joe Pub is all over the Aints right now though....but I think they might be right on this one.

Falcons +9 looks nice too. TEN is a nice team, but I think asking them to lay 9 points is a bit much at this point.

I don't know how you can like the Jets on the ML. I must be missing something there that you're seeing. They suck.

I think WASH pounds DET too, and wouldn't be surprised to see CHI "upset" GB and Miami "upset" HOU.

I guess that's about it for now, lol, as I haven't really looked into anything much yet. These are just off the top of my head thoughts.

[Daws1089]

i'm liking the bears and steelers this week. Steelers are primed to put a whoopin on seattle after their poor showing in az. Seattle on their 2nd straight road game could be in trouble.

The public is loving this small number at home for gb. i think chi might be up for this one as this is one of the best rivalries. If griese can limit the INTs inside the freakin 5 yd line, chicago could sneak out with a w.


i also am considering washington and kc.

[rjp]

Browns

Hopefully the starting QB doesn't go out on the first play of the game this time. :gulp:

[Horfin]

I can't help but wonder how many super bowls Baltimore may have won had they KEPT Dilfer instead of all the dillholes they had at QB the last few years....

Stif,

You say a lot of smart things, week in and week out, but .....That is ABSOLUTELY the smartest thing you have ever said.

I have felt the same way for years.

Horfin

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

JML - Why would you want to back SD right now? I mean I'm not exactly thinking Denver is any good, but SD is in shambles, and it's looking like some of them are quitting on the season already, judging by body language (on field) and interviews and such. No way I would back that mess right now. And, I don't know what you mean about everyone seeing Buffalo as a sexy home dog. There's 93% on Dallas right now, and I think the consensus around the country is that Buffalo sucks, and isn't even worthy of being on the same field as Dallas. I don't see anything over 20% backing BUF this Monday night.

Yeah...SD seems in trouble...I just think SD runs up and down on them all day, and at a pick'em, I like the chances of a close win. The Bolts have the running game with LT, and Denver is absolutely terrible against the run. I see SD keeping it simple, and getting it done. There's no way they should be down, or "quitting" IMO...and I hope the coaches drill that into them, because with the division they are in....3 weak teams ahead of them by one game at 2-2? Please. Plenty of time to turn it around and win that division, easily. 4 Games does not a season make...especially in the weakest division in the NFL.

As for Buffalo, I was sort of referring to this site, and this thread, lol... and the traditional dog players here, not the public...yes, they will be hammering Dallas all week I'm sure.

Arizona should be a road chalk....um, NEVER. And like you said Udog, playing a road chalk that won last week as a home dog is NFL suicide.

Not never....once, and only once. lol. In STL against the worst team in the NFL, with the former Rams QB pumped to start, only giving a measly 3. All the rest doesn't matter to me. Second best line of the year behind last nights NE line, IMO.

I like the Aints off the bye week. CAR is just plain horrible. Joe Pub is all over the Aints right now though....but I think they might be right on this one.

Like the Saints as well, but wasn't sure....Carloina does look bad though....I've fell for them twice the past two weeks, thinking they would show up, but nothing....like NO with a second chance to play well at home.

Great stuff, Stif...I'll be looking at NO, SF & KC...like your initial angles on those...and as you know, we never agree on anything NFL. lol. I'll most likely be adding them to my 5 original plays after further looks through the week.

:beerbang: :beerbang:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Browns

There's an epic surprise! lol.

GL.

[bookiekilla]

Haven't looking too much into all the games yet but here's what I'm liking at first glance...

Liking the falcons once again..not sure if they'll win SU or not but 9 is way too many points for the Titans to lay right now. The falcons offense have made improvements every single game so far, and I think with their offense clicking the way it is right now, they'll be able to stay within this number.

Also like Washington at home vs Det. Detroit looked better than they really are against a Bears team that's a mess. I don't see them going to Washington and winning this one straight up and I don't mind laying the small number with the redskins. This line should be around -6 IMO.

I don't know why, but I'm leaning towards the Bears on Sunday night......GB can't really continue to stay undefeated..can they???

Also leaning towards the Buff +10 at home on Monday Night. One of the only home dogs I like this week. Like Udoggie said, possible look ahead for Dallas. I also don't think that Dallas is not in the same league as NE and Indy just yet. They shouldn't be laying double digits on the road at this point.....

One last one...IMO the saints get a W this week against a Carolina team that ain't that good. I'll probably lay the 3 pts and take the saints at home...not sure yet..


Just my early leans right now..

[Stifler's Mom]

How did I miss the Browns getting +17? I probably have to play that one. I know I sound like a broken record here, but once again, the Brownies will be the best team NE has played so far.

I do realize NE isn't a fluke, but on the same hand, they can't blow everyone out, can they? I sure as hell don't expect an outright CLE win, but +17 is a ton of points to give a team that's looked pretty good. I can't see for a minute how that line isn't in their favor.

As far as ARI, the Rams are bad, but ARI really isn't that good either. They've got alot more to prove to me before they are deserving of being a road chalk. Kurt Warner hasn't been on the Rams for how many years now? And those 2 teams face off twice a year. I don't think that's going to be a motivating factor at this point, and while he has looked good, I can't help but remember the Warner that was turnover prone for the last few years, basically every time he entered a game until this season...

[hodown]

hd's live once again. my count is 14-7 on the year. why not take them all every wk???

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

yeah...NE is finally a no-play for me this week, but I won't be on the Browns either...not in NE anyway...if it was in Cleveland, sure....

I hope Cleveland hits though...

[bookiekilla]

One more i'm liking more and more...I think I like SD to win against Denver as well...like JML said above..Denver run D is giving up a lot of yardage and if Norv Turner wants to save his job, he's going to do what is so fkcn obvious...keep feeding LT!!!

[Skinsfan]

regression to the mean is going to step in here soon i fear....