***NFL Week 6 Discussion***

[DevilsAdvokt]

Question for you stifff.....


since your big on public sways and stuff


one line this week is bet 77% for cleveland to cover spread

and 71% on dolphins to win straight up


public money on the money line value or on the cleveland spread???


only line this week where a underdog is bet to win and favored to lose to spread?

[Stifler's Mom]

I think this is a situation where most will be looking for Seattle to bounce back big.... but a Saints win is possible. This line is screaming for Seahawks money IMO. The Saints have lost by 31 @ Indy, 17 @TB, 17 at home to the Titans, & by 3 to a bad Carolina team (or at least nowhere near as good as years past). Tell me why the line shouldn't come out -8.5 here? If vegas thought a home blowout was likely, don't you think they would make the bettor eat a little more chalk than 7?

For the last couple years I've done fairly well fading the Hawks on the road & betting them at home. I stayed away from the SF matchup because of SF's lack of offense, & stupidly left Pitt off my card last week though i liked them. I am not impressed with the Seahawks defense at all this season. They get a decent pass rush, but also give up a ton of yards. Take away the SF game & look at the last 3 vs. competent offenses.

The Steelers rushed for 163 vs them (4 ypc). Big Ben was 18-22 206 1td. I won't put too much stock on this as Seattle was definitely in a bad spot froma situational standpoint.

@ home vs. Cincy- Seattle's D gave up 412 yards! 328 through the air/84 rushing. 4 turnovers there is the only reason Seattle escaped with a win.

@ Arizona- 431 yards allowed! Zona averaged 5.1 ypc & they threw for 299.


The Saints have been a disappointment so far this season, but they are a high powered offense. Too much talent on that team IMO to not find the endzone sooner or later. Brees will have no choice but to air it out, & Cincy/Zona both faired well doing so vs. the Hawks. NO D i9s awful, but they did hold the Panthers to 243 total yards.

One thing I think that could be overlooked is the retirement of Mack Strong. Aside from the great O-line Alexander had, you can thank Mack for all those big seasons. Behind every great rb is a damn good FB (Lorenzo Neal, Tony Richardson. Daryl Johnston, etc). I think Mack's retirement could be a huge loss for Seattle. Also, Branch is day to day with a sprained right foot.... Could be a nice spot for the Saints, when everyone has given up on them :thumbs:

You got it....everyone will be looking for Seattle to bounce back big, but in order to do so, you have to have a good team. Pittsburgh bounced back against Seattle last week because PIT is a great team who was nothing more than off a bad situational loss.

Seattle just doesn't IMO....and the guys they do have are banged up.

General rule of thumb....one big year makes you a great team in the public's eyes for at least 1 more, and often 2 more if you can pull off a few covers for them here and there. Seattle is in year #2 since their super bowl run...and IMO it's a great time to hop on the Seattle fade train.

Oddly enough, the Aints are right off their big year last season, and look where their lines have been so far. That's what worries me a bit here, although the public is so down on the Aints at this point, I think they've forgotten about last year already, and their lines have already adjusted back to closer to what they should be.

It's all about getting line value IMO...and if you can get +7 against a team who hasn't been able to get out of their own way on defense, that's gotta be a good value. One you figure should win unless N.O. turns the ball over like crazy.

Now if the Aints could get their heads out of their asses....that's my worry. The way they handed a W to CAR last week in a game they dominated was just sickening.

On a side note, Houston appears to be a big giant set up as well at +6.5. JAX should beat them by DD rather easily IMO, and I'll be the first to admit I underestimated JAX last week in taking KC.

KC sure as hell looks like a sweet play this week though getting +2.5 or +3 at home vs the Bungles, who from what I've seen, aren't nearly on the same plane as JAX :beerbang:

[BlazerAndy]

I was listening to Colin Cowherd yesterday, and it was funny IMO how all of a sudden, he thinks GB is the real deal, but last year He was bashing Joe public and their obsession with Favre. He said Favre, like Vick, are way overrated. It's amazing what a good O-line gives you. Or lack thereof. I am gonna be all over GB and leaning towards under 40.5. IMO this game will get really ugly fast, kinda like the Phi/GB game.

definitely lay off the colen coward show

[Daws1089]

i believe cincy's CB jonathan joseph is also out for suspension?

[Underdog88]

I'm pretty sure i'm going to have to play the Chiefs & over this week. Cincy still has LB problems, & LJ off a bad week.... I have to believe he comes out on fire vs. a bad run D. Also Cincy RT Willie Anderson is out for the game.....

[Furashu]

I agree with this analysis. Also, I think people need to be careful if they are relying on the home field advantage. Let's not forget that New Orleans absolutely embarassed Dallas last year at Texas Stadium.

lol, look at cheifs @ arrowhead, last week 7-17 !

[HoosierDaddy]

:thumbs:

Im telling ya that Juron threw **** at Romo that he was not familiar with. Billicheat is great at stealing what other people do and exploiting it. If you remember last year when Minnesota had the great rushing defense and the ****ty passing defense, the team Minn played the week before exploited it (passing defense) to a certain extent. The following week NE threw the **** out of the ball and manhandled that defense.

Same thing here, Juron threw various defenses at romo that he was not familiar with. Billicheat will copy that and bring it to another level with the increased talent that he has. I really doubt romo throws 5 interceptions, but he'll be forced to run, get nailed, take sacks. The Dallas offense should be shut down. This is not a factor of Dallas sucked against Buffalo and therefore they are not a good 5-0 team, this is a factor of the game, the coach and the situation (short week for Dallas with travel off an emotional monday night win)

I agree with this analysis. Also, I think people need to be careful if they are relying on the home field advantage. Let's not forget that New Orleans absolutely embarassed Dallas last year at Texas Stadium.

[Horfin]

NE will cover this.

:thumbs:

Im telling ya that Juron threw **** at Romo that he was not familiar with. Billicheat is great at stealing what other people do and exploiting it. If you remember last year when Minnesota had the great rushing defense and the ****ty passing defense, the team Minn played the week before exploited it (passing defense) to a certain extent. The following week NE threw the **** out of the ball and manhandled that defense.

Same thing here, Juron threw various defenses at romo that he was not familiar with. Billicheat will copy that and bring it to another level with the increased talent that he has. I really doubt romo throws 5 interceptions, but he'll be forced to run, get nailed, take sacks. The Dallas offense should be shut down. This is not a factor of Dallas sucked against Buffalo and therefore they are not a good 5-0 team, this is a factor of the game, the coach and the situation (short week for Dallas with travel off an emotional monday night win)

[Queen]

Sun 10/14 225 New England Patriots -5.5 -106 -235 OVER 53 -105
01:15 PM 226 Dallas Cowboys +5.5 -102 +215 UNDER 53 -105

Well it's starting to even out now. This early money on NE. Well lets just watch this and see. Now I have come to the conclusion that. Well I've been sucked in before I learned alot. Use to be when GB was getting points at home and winning then everybody and their brother would play GB getting the points. I think this is like one of those games. They have took sharp money early and now the public will off set that sharp money. Making you think everybody has NE and are on the wrong side. The public betters on Sunday will bet Cowboys at this price.

Results a correction from yesturday on my part.

NE will cover this. But we will wait and see. Reason Public bets Cowboys because they dont think they can lose at home.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

.

Are you nuts??? I disagree 100%, and think you should sit down, and re-think things for a couple days, as this point is way off the mark.

:beer2:

[Ming the Merciless]

TEN/TB

DAL has homefield though, and NE is IMO STILL untested.

I'll be rooting for DAL, but I don't know if they get my money come Sunday.



And WTF with Washington/GB? Joe Pub is all over WASH +3 (68%). How quickly they give up on Favre I guess. I wouldn't be shocked to see more GB backers file in as the week goes on though, and I'm not completely sold on either side of that game....yet. More research needed. I was just noting how Joe Pub jumps off the bandwagon (or on in some cases) so easily.

I was listening to Colin Cowherd yesterday, and it was funny IMO how all of a sudden, he thinks GB is the real deal, but last year He was bashing Joe public and their obsession with Favre. He said Favre, like Vick, are way overrated. It's amazing what a good O-line gives you. Or lack thereof. I am gonna be all over GB and leaning towards under 40.5. IMO this game will get really ugly fast, kinda like the Phi/GB game.

[Ming the Merciless]

Hoosierdaddy pretty much hit it as far as I'm concerned. Being on the road for New England really does not evne seem to phase them. They are extremely focused right now, and also very confident (but not to the point where they will take a game lightly).

AFC/NFC disparity, yes. The point about NE winning by 3 or dallas blowing them out is bullocks... I'll be out of my mind if Dallas blows them out. I hate new england, like hoosierdaddy (probably cause of the colts :p )... but I am pretty confident about NE winning by a touchdown. Dallas is a very good team, but as seen last night, they can break down mentally (and should've lost). If Dallas turns the ball over against NE as much as they did against Buffalo,its going to be a lonnnnnng night for them.

good point. I think Cowgirls will look to run more and play ball and clock control and not let Brady pass all day long. Last week it seemed like every time they had a possession it was 20+ yards to Watson, Stallworth, or Welker. Gotta keep them off the field. I am a homer, but they don't call it "BIG D" for nothin', even though I agree with Q that Dallas' D has problems(not more than the Donkeys, though!LOL! Everyone I talked too was like F this game before the 3rd qtr. The crowd was chanting "Let's GO Roc-Kies! LOL. BTW Rockies will make the World series and it will be snowing here in Denver.

[Furashu]

Dallas good luck

with man-on-man horsecollar coverage on Randy Moss.

im not betting on this game, but i have a feeling dallas will open up in the first half.

btw, has brady even faced a 'blitzing" defense yet?
SD was supposedly, but he stood there for about 10 hours.

[Underdog88]

.

[BlazerAndy]

Dallas good luck

with man-on-man horsecollar coverage on Randy Moss.