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  • WEEK 15 Discussion Thread >>>

    Starting this out, as UD is probably too busy watching tall men putting orange balls through metal hoops. lol.


    Love Houston PK on Thursday. The Broncos smoke the awful Chiefs at Mile High....great, but that doesn't change the fact that this is still not a very good road team, and is a team that had lost on the road to the horrible Raiders and Bears right before their easy home win. Now they head back on the road to play against a Texans team that plays well at home (4-2), and are coming off a solid home win over the Bucs. Denver sucks on the road with 2 wins...one over the crappy Chiefs, and a lucky early season win over the Bills. Early bets coming in look to have the public backing Denver pretty hard, and I think this is one of those times, (like Stif likes to point out) that people are taking too much stock into last week's performance....with the Broncos putting up 41 points and marching up and down the field all day. But in reality....most teams should have had that result at home against KC, and the Texans win is probably more impressive with a solid result over a Bucs team in the thick of the playoff race. This also has to be the first time Houston has hosted a prime-time NFL game since the Oilers days... and that city, stadium, and locker room should be pumped Thursday. Schaub or Sage...Home team wins this one by 10+ points, IMO.

    Probably laying off the Saturday game. Not sure I could lay 8.5/9 points with the public-backed Bengals on the road where they stink, going 1-5....but there's also no way I could back the Niners in any situation where I'm not getting 20+ points! lol! SF could have the worst offence of the past 10 years...which means Cincy might only need 2 TDs to cover the number! Even though it's a rare Saturday game...I think I'm finally going to be smart, and layoff a horrible situation where there is no clear-cut smart play, IMO. But gun to the head, I'd (gulp) have to take Shawn Hill and the Niners.
    NO-PLAY! I'll be watching Hockey Night in Canada anyway...lol!
    Last edited by JohnnyMapleLeaf; 12-11-2007, 10:14 AM.

  • #2
    Detroit Lions on the road? Usually suicide...but they might get my money this week. Chargers escape a win last week, where they looked horrible all game....have serious problems at QB, and now lose LT's right hand man, and the hole-opening FB Lorenzo Neal. Detroit's weakness all year has been pass defence...but that should not be exposed against SD...and the Lions have actually been decent stopping the run this year (save the game against powerhouse Minny). Take away that Minny game, and Detroit's recent losses have actually been close against top teams like Dallas, GB & NYG. Yes, SD is on a 3 game win streak, but everyone knows they should have lost last week, and their two previous wins were against the weak Ravens and Chiefs. Chargers are an over-rated team...and should not be laying 10.5 to the dangerous Lions in this spot. Star linbacker Merriman's injury doesn't hurt Detroit's chances either! It's tough to back Detroit on the road...especially out west...but I might have too...as I think they matchup well against the Chargers...and should give them a game...

    Pats/Jets OVER 47 Not going to take a stab at the side in this one...but I do like the Over. People are saying the Spy-gate thing could motivate the Jets, but I think it's going to work the other way, and that prick Belichek is going to run up the score as much as he can on Mangini for being a snitch. I expect the Pats to put up at least 40 on that 28th ranked Jets defence, but I also think the Jets will be able to score on that over-rated Pats defence, who have been exposed the past 3 weeks. The Pats run defence has been struggling lately, and the Jets do have a good 1-2 punch in the backfield with Jones/Washington. Looking at a 44-20 type game in this one.
    Last edited by JohnnyMapleLeaf; 12-11-2007, 11:15 AM.

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    • #3
      i agree all around jml. texans are the play imo. fans are still behind the team even with the playoffs looking doutbful, and sage isnt a big drop from schaub anyway. cant lay that many with bengals on the road, and cant lay on the niners period. sd is overrated but its just hard to pick spots to play against them, bc they havent played anyone as of late. they seem to have that bears 06 factor, where they find ways to score other than just offensively, which makes it hard to play against them as well. no merriman this week helps. regarding jets/pats over, pats games have gotten atleast 44 every wk, so why not take that over? and you gotta think the pats will be motivated for this one as well.

      lots of big lines this wk, but in a pick the winner situation i like seattle and nyg. could be a letdown spot for seattle, but if they can handle their business they should cruise to 12-4 heading into the playoffs. decent spot for the jags as well moneyline

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      • #4
        Another game that stands out is the Bills +6. This young Buffalo team is not getting much press, but they are on a serious roll, going 7-3 in their last 10...with the 3 losses coming against Jax, NE & Dal. Not too bad. I like the Browns, but they have such a weak defence, that I don't think they should be laying 6 points too often...especially to a confident Bills team on the upswing. Without those 2 early last-play losses to Dal & Den...this is a 9-4 Bills team....and that is how I am capping them. This really feels to me like a very close game...with the Bills winning with special teams and turnovers...so the 6 points seems like alot. Browns a good home team, but I might take my chances on these young Bills. Looks like the public is all over the Browns...and if I get an even better line by gametime, it's a definite play. the only thing that scares me is the good Browns passing game exposing the Bills secondary. It's a maybe play....curious to see what Stif and UD think about the Bills this week...
        Last edited by JohnnyMapleLeaf; 12-11-2007, 11:32 AM.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by hodown View Post
          lots of big lines this wk, but in a pick the winner situation i like seattle and nyg. could be a letdown spot for seattle, but if they can handle their business they should cruise to 12-4 heading into the playoffs. decent spot for the jags as well moneyline
          Hadn't really looked at that Giants game, hodown....and probably won't until Sunday. might be a no-play, as I have a hard time capping any team in that division except the Cowboys... it seems like everytime I play a Phi/NYG/Was game, I am on the wrong side. lol

          I had looked at the Seattle game briefly and I still might add it....as the Panthers really blow, and will be starting Matt Moore....but the Seahawks on the road always makes me nervous...and the public is hammering Seattle to the tune of 78%. They are probably right in this situation though. Carolina has been awful at home with only 1 win all year...and that against was against the Niners, so it really doesn't count! lol.

          Probably laying off the Jax/Pit game....good matchup, but it's one of those marquee games where I am not too confident on...I like the Jax team, but Pit is money at home, and might be looking to put on a good show after the NE road loss...


          GL! :thumbs:

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          • #6
            This time of year is a good time to start lookin' at the teams that are in(nothin' to play for) & teams on the bubble:

            Following are the current NFL playoff standings:
            NFC
            1. Dallas (12-1) - Cliched Division
            2. Green Bay (11-2) - Clinched Division
            3. Seattle (9-4) - Cliched Division
            4. Tampa Bay (8-5)
            5. New York Giants (9-4)
            6. Minnesota (7-6)


            Top Six Teams Qualify

            7. New Orleans (6-7)
            8. Washington (6-7)
            9. Arizona (6-7)
            10. Detroit (6-7)
            11. Carolina (5-8)
            12. Chicago (5-8)
            13. Philadelphia (5-8)


            Eliminated:
            14. Atlanta (3-10)
            15. San Francisco (3-10)
            16. St. Louis (3-10)



            AFC
            1. New England (13-0) - Clinched Division and Bye
            2. Indianapolis (11-2) - Cliched Playoff Berth
            3. Pittsburgh (9-4)
            4. San Diego (8-5)
            5. Jacksonville (9-4)
            6.Cleveland (8-5)


            Top Six Teams Qualify

            7. Buffalo (7-6)
            8. Tennessee (7-6)
            9. Denver (6-7)
            10. Houston (6-7)


            Eliminated:
            11. Cincinnati (5-8)
            12. Kansas City (4-9)
            13. Oakland (4-9)
            14. Baltimore (4-9)
            15. New York Jets (3-10)
            16. Miami (0-13)



            :beer2:

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            • #7
              Great point, HD...thanks for the info!! :thumbs:


              hmmm....does Seattle have anything to play for? The 2nd seed I guess...
              Last edited by JohnnyMapleLeaf; 12-11-2007, 11:18 AM.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf View Post
                I had looked at the Seattle game briefly and I still might add it....as the Panthers really blow, and will be starting Matt Moore....but the Seahawks on the road always makes me nervous...and the public is hammering Seattle to the tune of 78%. They are probably right in this situation though. Carolina has been awful at home with only 1 win all year...and that against was against the Niners, so it really doesn't count! lol.
                Carolina has been getting smoked by everyone except SF....and actually lost to the Atlanta F'ing Falcons....IN Carolina....that right there makes it a play on Seattle -7 for me. lol. I don't care if 105% of the public is on the hawks...they are playing solid football on both sides of the ball, and will take care of the Panthers easily. This feels EXACTLY like the Minny win over SF last week....easy pickins for a team on a roll...
                Last edited by JohnnyMapleLeaf; 12-11-2007, 11:24 AM.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf View Post
                  Great point, HD...thanks for the info!! :thumbs:


                  hmmm....does Seattle have anything to play for? The 2nd seed I guess...
                  yes, 2nd seed... they have an easier road ahead than greenbay....

                  I dont understand the line, I guess the linesmakers are still on strike????

                  the line should shoot upward.....

                  not sure what the tiebreaker is for same records, but it appears that dallas hasn't clinched the bye with 12 wins??? greenbay might need to get to 13 wins & dallas will get 13!
                  Last edited by homedawg; 12-11-2007, 11:44 AM.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by homedawg View Post
                    yes, 2nd seed... they have an easier road ahead than greenbay....

                    I dont understand the line, I guess the linesmakers are still on strike????

                    the line should shoot upward.....
                    yeah...line has started to move already....it'll probably end up at 9.


                    You're right...Seattle still has a chance...

                    Seattle: @Carolina, Baltimore, @Atlanta

                    GB: @STL, @Chicago, Detroit

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by homedawg View Post
                      not sure what the tiebreaker is for same records, but it appears that dallas hasn't clinched the bye with 12 wins??? greenbay might need to get to 13 wins & dallas will get 13!
                      I think it's divisional record? :dunno:

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                      • #12
                        sea has been respectable on the road this yr. if mccallister and rolle play, i gotta think balt is a decent play as well. i can understand people not wanting to lay on balt on the road, especially because the pub is all over them, but how can anyone lay on miami???

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                        • #13
                          first, I'd like to say some things...

                          when exactly are the linesmakers going to get off their asses and give these dogs some better lines? Seems like every week, if you take the ridiculous 70% or 68% public play you cash. Whatever happened to the homedogs that get no love who win outright? Seems like we can go ahead and kiss home field advantage good bye this season for any game.

                          Next, disreguard everything I say because I haven't been more wrong in my entire life about anything than nfl football in 2007.

                          Now to the discussion,

                          I like the under 46 in the browns/bills. I think this will be a tight one where the defenses of these teams, not the offenses will determine the winner. I can see some ball control drives and high perentage throws (something the bills do always), but i think this game will have a playoff feel to it and the number could be a few too high.

                          I think tennessee -4 is a good one too. KC has packed it in, and if they havent already they will after sunday. That loss to denver last week might have just about done it. Tennessee needs this one to remain in the playoff hunt. pick the winner with the -4 spread and I think tennessee gets it done.

                          I know they may not have a whole lot to play for, but please tell me if you can see oakland staying within 11 of indy? Indy is still playing for the 1st rd bye and i can see a repeat of last week's debacle. Will we see jemarcus russel? or better yet maybe andrew walter? i gotta back the colts.

                          cowgirls/birds under 48.5

                          eagles have revenge on their minds. yea their playoff hopes are just about overwith, but that doesnt change this rivalry. Jim Johnson has seen what the cowboys do offensively and will be prepared for it this week. Eagles defense has been the reason why they were in or won any game this year. I think the eagles give the cowgirls a little more than they bargained for in this one, but probly lose. which makes me like the pts too, but not enough to bet it. But i see this one staying under maybe a 27-17 game.

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                          • #14
                            nep only needs 14 wins to have hf throughout the playoffs... do they lay down, after 14-0??? :hide:

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf View Post
                              I think it's divisional record? :dunno:
                              i believe the tiebreaker for teams with the same record is their in conference record which puts new orleans at the top of all those 6-7 teams.

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