week sixteen

[homedawg]

If your desk looks like this:
















and your fridge looks like this:












You just might be a warlord!


:drunk:

[homedawg]

I guess 2005, Xmas was on Sunday. Were the 2005 games on Saturday. That ****s starting to bug me out alittle LOL :beer2:

WEEK 16
Saturday, Dec. 24
Atlanta 24 at Tampa Bay 27 (OT)
Buffalo 37 at Cincinnati 27
Dallas 24 at Carolina 20
Detroit 13 at New Orleans 12
Jacksonville 38 at Houston 20
N.Y. Giants 20 at Washington 35
Pittsburgh 41 at Cleveland 0
San Diego 7 at Kansas City 20
San Francisco 24 at St. Louis 20
Tennessee 10 at Miami 24
Philadelphia 21 at Arizona 27
Indianapolis 13 at Seattle 28
Oakland 3 at Denver 22
Sunday, Dec. 25
Chicago 24 at Green Bay 17
Minnesota 23 at Baltimore 30
Monday, Dec. 26
New England 31 at N.Y. Jets 21

[yomonte]

Thanx HD, I thought I was going out of my mind

[Billy Barooooooo]

NFL Football Scores - Box Scores

Looks like only 2 favs covered last year!

[Billy Barooooooo]

:thumbs: Thought you would like this and maybe had the time to figure out the plays!!!!

Late Season NFL Team Records & Systems
By: Steve Makinen - StatFox
Published: 12/19/2007 at 4:02:00 PM

The last two weeks of the regular season can be some of the most difficult of the season to handicap, as in addition to the normal set of circumstances a bettor has to consider, he or she is also faced with additional factors such as teams resting starters, playoff contenders facing “must-win” scenarios, and inclement weather.

Oddsmakers are also busy at work analyzing these variables, and more often than not, they will issue lines far and beyond what most bettors have come to expect. This leads to further insecurity as that old feeling of being tricked creeps in.

The worst thing about handicapping these external factors late in the season is that all of them are mental, and therefore can’t be quantified. Still, though there is no foolproof method of madness for dealing with late season motivational aspects, there are several things a handicapper can do to avoid falling prey to the landmines left by oddsmakers.

First, stick to the strategies that have produced success throughout the season. If some of the games suddenly don’t match the strategy because of one reason or another, don’t be afraid to disregard them. Second, don’t assume a “must-win” game results in a win, even if a team is up against a non-contending team. There is a reason this team is in a “must-win”, and it’s because they weren’t good enough to get the job done at other points throughout the season. Rarely will you find an elite team in a desperate situation this late in the season. Finally, study systems and past performance records of teams in the last two weeks and fit them to the coming games.

That’s where our feature piece comes into play. I’ve uncovered a few StatFox Super Situations and well as another successful system from our friend Tom Stryker that you can utilize in the next two weeks. The good news is all of the angles are quite simple, so you should be presented with several opportunities to take advantage of them. Take a look…

System #1: Fade teams in search of back-to-back road wins – Pulling off back-to-back road wins in the final month of the season is difficult, since fatigue and weather play a bigger role. In the case of games with lines in the +3 to -3 range, these problems are worsened by a quality opponent. Here’s the system with its performance records:

Play Against - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 - off a road win, in December games. (38-16 since 1983.) (70.4%, +20.4 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (39-17)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.3
The average score in these games was: Team 23.4, Opponent 17.6 (Average point differential = +5.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 26 (50% of all games.)

Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (20-12).

System #2 – Be wary of fading home dogs that got blown out the prior week – At this point in the season, home underdogs are teams that are typically in bad shape in the standings. However, oddsmakers have already made this adjustment over time, and a blowout loss in this team’s prior game often cause further over-adjustment. Look at the records, particularly the straight up marks.

Play On - Home underdogs or pick - off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more, in December games. (53-24 since 1983.) (68.8%, +26.6 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (38-41)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6
The average score in these games was: Team 19.8, Opponent 20.7 (Average point differential = -0.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 35 (44.9% of all games.)

Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-8).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (32-16).

System #3 – Cold teams hitting the road aren’t a bad bet – This would seem to be a difficult concept to grasp, as no one like to follow the cold team at this point in the season. History shows however, that teams having lost at least four of their L5 games are 41-16 ATS on the road in December. This would also figure to be due to oddsmakers overreacting to the recent stretch of poor play.

Play On - Road teams - after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games, in December games. (41-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.9%, +23.4 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (29-29 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.7
The average score in these games was: Team 19.9, Opponent 20.4 (Average point differential = -0.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 25 (43.9% of all games.)

Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-10).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (61-50).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (98-81).

System #4 – The Must-Win System – Although StatFox doesn’t qualify each game as a must-win or not, the following Super Situation would seem to come as close as it gets to defining a must-win scenario. Our favorite has lost two of its last three games and has put itself in a tough spot where it has to win. It’s still favored mind you, but these records show, that might be falsely, or at least by too many points.

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. (50-22 since 1983.) (69.4%, +25.8 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (26-49)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.8
The average score in these games was: Team 19.8, Opponent 23.4 (Average point differential = -3.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (27% of all games.)

Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-9).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (32-13).

System #5 - NFL Late Season Bad Encore – As indicated earlier, our friend Tom Stryker often submits his favorite systems to StatFox for publishing on the website. He’ll go through a system in detail, even qualifying teams for it for that upcoming week’s games. He describes his NFL Late Season Bad Encore system as follows.

The last three games of the NFL regular season can mean everything to those teams still in the playoff hunt and nothing to the others that have already been eliminated. Novice handicappers could experience a great deal of financial stress at this time of the year. The Las Vegas line is usually inflated on those squads still battling for playoff position. If you invest your hard earned dough on “bad” numbers in the pros, you can go broke in a hurry. Fortunately, my powerful NFL database has kept me in the “profit zone” in the month of December thanks to a handful of incredible late season systems.

This NFL Late Season Bad Encore system is just one that has made me a ton of money over the years. Let’s take a look at this awesome technical situation:

Since 1984, NFL non-division road teams from game 14 to game 16 are a miserable 38-73-2 ATS provided they check in off a double-digit loss. At this time of the season, blowouts can weigh heavy on pro teams. Injuries and fatigue have settled in and “getting up” for another four quarters of battle just isn’t as easy at it was at the beginning of the season especially if you’re forced to go on the road. Not being able to at least face a division foe takes away the motivational factor too.

There are a couple of great tighteners that really make this system pop. First, if our visitor is priced as an underdog or a favorite of -1 or less, this situation dips to a woeful 27-65-2 ATS. This late-season puppy has trouble recovering from that blowout loss (especially when matched up against a superior opponent) and loses its bark.

With our 27-65-2 ATS in hand, this system crashes to an ugly 8-32-2 ATS provided our guest is lined up across from a team that checks in off a straight up victory of four points or more. The home team in this set is obviously riding an emotional high off that win of four or more and carries that success over for another week versus this weary and wobbly traveler.



Past Performance Records of Teams in Last Two Weeks of Regular Season
When you go back enough years and analyze as many games as StatFox does, you’re bound to find some nice patterns of performance by teams in certain scenarios. The following is a chart illustrating teams’ performance records, both SU & ATS, in the last two weeks of the regular season. Naturally, some franchises have been better than others so they should have better records in games 15 & 16. Still, look for unusual patterns by specific teams and take advantage of them the next two weeks.

[Billy Barooooooo]

ARIZONA: 5-9 SU (35.7%) NFL Rank: 23, 11-3 SU (78.6%) NFL Rank: 2
ATLANTA: 4-10 SU (28.6%) NFL Rank: 28, 6-7 SU (46.2%) NFL Rank: 19
BALTIMORE: 9-5 SU (64.3%) NFL Rank: 6, 7-7 SU (50.0%) NFL Rank: 12
BUFFALO: 5-9 SU (35.7%) NFL Rank: 23, 5-9 SU (35.7%) NFL Rank: 26
CAROLINA: 9-5 SU (64.3%) NFL Rank: 6, 8-6 SU (57.1%) NFL Rank: 8
CHICAGO: 6-8 SU (42.9%) NFL Rank: 18, 3-9 SU (25.0%) NFL Rank: 31
CINCINNATI: 6-8 SU (42.9%) NFL Rank: 18, 7-7 SU (50.0%) NFL Rank: 12
CLEVELAND: 6-7 SU (46.2%) NFL Rank: 17, 7-6 SU (53.8%) NFL Rank: 11
DALLAS: 4-10 SU (28.6%) NFL Rank: 28, 6-8 SU (42.9%) NFL Rank: 21
DENVER: 9-5 SU (64.3%) NFL Rank: 6, 8-6 SU (57.1%) NFL Rank: 8
DETROIT: 6-8 SU (42.9%) NFL Rank: 18, 9-4 SU (69.2%) NFL Rank: 6
GREEN BAY: 12-2 SU (85.7%) NFL Rank: 1, 8-3 SU (72.7%) NFL Rank: 3
HOUSTON: 3-7 SU (30.0%) NFL Rank: 27, 5-5 SU (50.0%) NFL Rank: 12
INDIANAPOLIS: 8-6 SU (57.1%) NFL Rank: 10, 3-11 SU (21.4%) NFL Rank: 32
JACKSONVILLE: 4-10 SU (28.6%) NFL Rank: 28, 5-9 SU (35.7%) NFL Rank: 26
KANSAS CITY: 9-5 SU (64.3%) NFL Rank: 6, 8-6 SU (57.1%) NFL Rank: 8
MIAMI: 8-6 SU (57.1%) NFL Rank: 10, 6-7 SU (46.2%) NFL Rank: 19
MINNESOTA: 4-10 SU (28.6%) NFL Rank: 28, 5-9 SU (35.7%) NFL Rank: 26
NEW ENGLAND: 10-3 SU (76.9%) NFL Rank: 4, 11-2 SU (84.6%) NFL Rank: 1
NEW ORLEANS: 5-9 SU (35.7%) NFL Rank: 23, 6-8 SU (42.9%) NFL Rank: 21
NY GIANTS: 7-7 SU (50.0%) NFL Rank: 15, 7-7 SU (50.0%) NFL Rank: 12
NY JETS: 6-8 SU (42.9%) NFL Rank: 18, 7-7 SU (50.0%) NFL Rank: 12
OAKLAND: 3-11 SU (21.4%) NFL Rank: 32, 4-10 SU (28.6%) NFL Rank: 30
PHILADELPHIA: 7-6 SU (53.8%) NFL Rank: 14, 5-8 SU (38.5%) NFL Rank: 24
PITTSBURGH: 11-3 SU (78.6%) NFL Rank: 2, 10-4 SU (71.4%) NFL Rank: 4
SAN DIEGO: 4-9 SU (30.8%) NFL Rank: 26, 4-9 SU (30.8%) NFL Rank: 29
SAN FRANCISCO: 7-7 SU (50.0%) NFL Rank: 15, 6-8 SU (42.9%) NFL Rank: 21
SEATTLE: 11-3 SU (78.6%) NFL Rank: 2, 9-4 SU (69.2%) NFL Rank: 6
ST LOUIS: 10-4 SU (71.4%) NFL Rank: 5, 10-4 SU (71.4%) NFL Rank: 4
TAMPA BAY: 6-8 SU (42.9%) NFL Rank: 18, 5-8 SU (38.5%) NFL Rank: 24
TENNESSEE: 8-6 SU (57.1%) NFL Rank: 10, 7-7 SU (50.0%) NFL Rank: 12
WASHINGTON: 8-6 SU (57.1%) NFL Rank: 10, 7-7 SU (50.0%) NFL Rank: 12

** Note: Bye weeks prior to Houston's NFL arrival affect the varied number of games teams played.

NFL Football - Late Season NFL Team Records & Systems - StatFox News

[homedawg]

Yo, took me 6 beers to find ya.... hope you were on the take today.... :beerbang:


Merry Christmas! :celebrate:

[yomonte]

Here's to me and you HD. Beers are on me and you LOL. Hope you and yours are having a great holiday man.

[yomonte]

Yo, hope you were on the take today...

Kinda, sorta..I was on the take down LOL. Gots to reup before week 17. NYG and NE have nothing to play for. Thats good for NE. But what if they sit Eli and the back up tears some **** up. Line is 14 1/2. I like that alot no less. I really want to see Cleveland in the playoffs. They deserve it even after the debacle in Cincy. Tenn going to Indy should help and SF coming to Clev for the last spot. Tenn favored over Indy by 4. the fav is 6-2 with that line. Hopefully I'll have money in Oly before the Thursday night game.

[homedawg]

I dont see any reason why Indy will try to win this game except to keep ten out of the playoffs... Ten plays indy tough, and indy already has to worry about sdc & nep in the playoffs... I'm not gonna bet against Ten in this game, but it would be nice to see indy pull out the win... was should take the game easily against the boyz, and get the final NFC seed..

[yomonte]

HD, Merry Xmas my brutha. And the rest of ya'll, yes, all of ya here at Predictem. What a great bunch we have here. Merry Xmas everybody, yes, even you BP, lucky bassard. A banner year for toys for tots. I don't like donating cause I don't know how much of what I donated actually goes to the cause. This is the only cause I donate to, cause knowing Kevin personally, every penny goes to the kids. Kevin is the man. Its easy to send some dough. But Kevin has to buy and deliver. Lots of kids are going to be happy due to your generosity and Kevins spare time. I ain't gonna read none of the stories about how ya'll made alot of children happy. I hate to see a grown man cry, especially when its me. The hardest part has to be giving the gifts to the children. Ain't enough tissues in the world

Merry Xmas to everyone nofknless

Kevin, I feel very lucky that I met you and are part of your site. Best damn site ever no less