NFL Playoffs - Round 1 ` DISCUSSION THREAD

[Angelus]

Yeah, Nitt...everyone seems to love the Jags in this one...big scary. It is probably now my least favourite play of the 4 because of that...


GL Nitt! :thumbs:

Home playoff dogs are 11-1-1 ATS since 1982......

Beware.

[flmmkrz]

Between the media hype and the weak sched argument the books should be making a lot of money off washington bettors this weekend.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Between the media hype and the weak sched argument the books should be making a lot of money off washington bettors this weekend.

Not really.....only 55% on Washington....that "home Field" hype has alot of backers too, evening things out.

Who are you cheering for flm? :laughing:


GL. :cheers:

[flmmkrz]

Not really.....only 55% on Washington....that "home Field" hype has alot of backers too, evening things out.

Who are you cheering for flm? :laughing:


GL. :cheers:

I just saw 66% on insights but I guess only the books know the real number.

As for home field, it's not hype it's tangible. Why don't we cut out the middle man and you can hand your money over to me directly :laughing:

I'll be at the game causing false start penalties, go hawks:beerbang:

[navy_blue99]

I'm worried about the Redskins because of not only playing on a short-week, but also the long road-trip. Seattle rested last week and doesn't have to travel. That's a HUGE, HUGE advantage. Washington's the easy pick in that game because of how they finished out the season, but there have been a lot of teams that have finished the season red-hot to sneak into the playoffs and have laid an egg that first round.

[Stifler's Mom]

Sports Insights is showing in the mid 60's on Washington.

IN any case, how many Washington plays do you see HERE as compared to Seattle plays?

The clear cut public consensus is Washington, no doubt about that.

Now as far as Todd Collins...

The playoffs are a completely different animal. Minnesota has a completely dead crowd. Nothing to deal with there, and the NYG, are well, the NYG.

The other 2 Washington wins down the stretch, DAL (layed down) and CHI (whooppee doo).

Todd Collins is not the second coming of Tom Brady who is going to storm into the playoffs and make an impact. Like I said, he's been a 12 year (or so) career back up for good reason.

I certainly don't have a boner for Seattle, nor do I believe they're all that good, but I believe they win today.

It comes down to pick the winner, and I don't see Collins and the Skins getting it done today.

The Jags opened as a dog of about +1 i believe, and got bet all the way up to -2.5 or -3. Not really the same as opening as a home dog....JMO.

Ironically, out of the 11-1-1 for home dogs in the playoffs, Pittsburgh was the 1 road fave that covered, against Cincinnati, 2 yrs ago, as a -4 road fave, on their way to a super bowl win.

Not sure what to think of that game.

[homedawg]

with the 1.5 to 2.0 drop in the line, the public looks pretty even to me..

sea 46% - 56% - 46%
was 54% - 44% - 54%


:beer2:

[navy_blue99]

The money's definitely been flowing to Jacksonville, which scares me, because i hate betting road favorites in the playoffs. But yet I have a hard time going against any team in the playoffs who can run the ball as effectively as the Jaguars can, have a qb who can execute the play-action and have a physical defense like they do.

Most people are betting the Steelers because they're a "Home Dog" and home dogs are so good in the playoffs. But yet, what makes it so conclusive they're going to cover? I'm staying away from the game. If i had to make a play, i'd take the under. I think it's going to be more low-scoring than the first game was.

[homedawg]

with a 3.5 to 4 pt move towards jax, public:


pit 34% - 24% - 41%
jax 66% - 76% - 59%

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

What about Seattle giving up 44 points to the Falcons in their last game...one of the worst offences in the NFL?? :beer2:

[Stifler's Mom]

Seriously JML, I hope you're not basing even .0001% of your play on what happened last week in the SEA/ATL game that was completely 100% meaningless to Seattle.

That is a classic public flub...and I know you're far better than that.

In any case, I hear alot of "Seattle isn't that good", "Seattle plays in a ****ty division", and "Seattle isn't what they used to be".

I don't disagree.

I would, however, like to hear what makes Washington so great that they're a strong play.

Honestly, the Skins are a .500 team at best who happened to beat a very overrated Minnesota team to overtake them, catch a little hot streak at the end of the season, and play their final game against a team who didn't try, and they managed to hit 9-7.

You wanna talk about a weak ass schedule? Look at Washington's wins.

Miami
Detroit
NY Jets
Arizona
Philly
Chicago
Dallas
Minnesota
NY Giants

2 teams with a winning record, and Dallas didn't try in week 17, so basically they beat 1 team with a winning record (NYG), and otherwise, it's basically nothing more than a who's who of who sucks ass in the NFL.

I don't think the Skins suck, but I don't think they're worthly of all this praise either...and I do not think they are equipped, especially at the all important QB position, to go on the road and get a win in the playoffs.

[FearTheRaven]

Seattle is the play.

Jax/Pitt I'm torn, but gotta like Pitt at home against a QB with his first start in the playoffs.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

yeah, Stif....I just threw that ATL result out there! lmao.
ALTHOUGH....Seattle did play their starting defence until the final minutes of that game....and it was Atl....that does tell me a little little something.

And I don't think I've really been praising Was too much, but you're very right, they are an average team....I think I am just calling more on their momentum than anything, I think that matters....and their superior running game and run defence....I guess most of my points backing the play is a fade of Seattle being over-rated in my mind. I could very well (and probably am, lol!) wrong, and Hassellbeck has the game of his life, and that defence plays lights out at home.

And that list of teams Was beat actually doesn't look to bad to me. 2 winning teams, sure, but Minny was the hottest team in the league when Wash went in and beat them, and Chicago and Philly were playing much better at the end year. And 2 teams were 500. The strength of schedule really is no comparision, as Seattle's could be the easiest I have seen in years. Was played mediocre to good teams the last half of the year. Sea played the bottom 3 or 4 teams multiple times, and was never challenged at home by a good team once (since week 1).

You know me...I guess I just like spouting off points to back my plays. nothing more fun! lol

GL and enjoy the games! :cheers: