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reg plays 58-42 (+24.20 units)
dog ml's 17-22 (+6.35 units)
overall 75-64 (+30.55 units)
Denver Broncos -3.5 (-115)
Prefect letdown spot for MIA, while DEN is off a bye week, and prior to that an MNF pounding at the hands of NE, which has many declaring how much the Broncos suck. DEN will be looking to bounce back strong here today though, and with 2 weeks to prepare, I expect them to be able to do so.
MIA is improved, but not enough so that I think they can overcome this extremely poor situational spot. The wildcat formation hasn't really done **** since they used it @ NE, who was completely unprepared for it. I don't think it will work today either, and I don't think MIA has the personnel to line up and conventionally beat teams on the road just yet.
In a pick the winner scenario, DEN is the only choice for me in this game. Wouldn't be at all shocked to see this line hit DEN -5.5 or so by kickoff. I think there is sharp money on them today, and I think closer to game time the books will try to eat up all the late MIA action they can get by offering an extra point or two to those who will bite, knowing the points shouldn't come into play.
4 units
St Louis Lambs +3 (+100)
Lambs have been playing good ball since Haslett took over, while Zona has to travel eastward for a 2nd straight week. STL is actually central time zone, not eastern, but the game starts at noon central, so might as well be same difference i guess. In any case, it's amazing how clearly obvious it is that the Lambs disliked former coach Linehan and apparently refused to play for him. The talent was always there with this team, and motivation was obviously what they were lacking. That is no longer an issue since his firing, with the Lambs racking up a 2-1 record for Haslett with a road win @ Washington (VERY UN-Lamb like to win on the road, & vs an NFC east team no less), a home pounding of Dallas, and being very competitive @ NE last week.
So the Lambs are clearly a different team than the one that started 0-4.
Another big reason i'm on STL is simple. Zona is solid at home, but **** on the road where they are 1-3, with their lone win coming over the ultra pathetic SF 49ers. Them being a road fave is an auto fade, and especially anywhere not out west, where they actually do win some road games on occasion. At the same time, there was once upon a time where STL was a solid home team, and showed signs of that being true again this year with one solid 1st half vs BUF and the beat down of Dallas.
Arizona is the better team, imo, but not by much, and the situation favors STL. I think STL should be -3 here, not +3, so great line value on an STL team that I think has a better shot to win the game outright than does ARI.
Buffalo Bills -5
The Jets just aren't a good team. Getting this game in a pick the winner scenario is a gift. BUF is the better team, and they are in a great situation this week, coming home off a road loss @ MIA. Seems there is still a huge lack of respect for a Bills team that can play with anyone, while a team like say JAX, who clearly isn't very good keeps drawing TD or more fave lines.
BUF should have no problem beating a below average team like NYJ by a TD or more @ home, but the Favre name keeps this line way low. If Noodle Arm Pennington was still the NYJ QB, this line would be BUF -9 or more, and I don't the Favre makes the difference today.
In addition the 4 NYJ wins are about the weakest I have ever seen for a 4-3 NFL team. Home vs ARI - where ARI was in a horrible spot (east to west travel & 1pm start) and gave the game away in the 1st qtr (typical ARI on the road), then home wins over NFL doormats CIN and KC. The only win that looks even half respectable on their schedule is @ MIA, but that was before MIA got their **** together, so take the one for what you will.
Baltimore Raisins +2 (+100)
The Browns haven't had have much offense this year. Despite putting up 35 vs NYG (mainly all because of NYG turnovers and a defensive score), and 23 in a win @ overrated Jax last week, every other game they've been pretty much held in check. I think the BAL defense can do the same today.
I expect a ton of dropsies from Winslow and Edwards today too, with heavy hits looming from the BAL secondary, and don't expect much from Stallworth and his paper thin hamstrings either, if he even plays.
It could be said that CLE has the revenge angle here after taking the 28-10 loss earlier in the season @ BAL, but I don't think they're a good enough team to man up and take the win here today, as i think they've got wusses who break out the alligator arms and drop the ball at the first sign of an oncoming defender in basically all the important skill positions. So that leaves Jamal Lewis and the ground game to get the job done, which I don't think BAL will allow to happen.
So yea, basically i'm fading the Browns as a fave, lol. I think they're getting too much respect for beating NYG in a spot that was very favorable to them, and then beating a JAX team that just isn't that good.
Kinda pissed that this line went to BAL +2.5 (+100) and +120 ml right after i put the play in. Hoping that hook doesn't matter.
Green Bay Cheese Heads +4
Just going against the apparently bad spot TEN is in today. I think with a short week to prepare and off a huge win over INDY, they will fall flat on their faces today and take their first loss at the hands of a capable GB team.
Houston Texases +5
Can't envision laying points with MIN with they way they've played football this year.
In addition, Houston hasn't actually fared too poorly on the road, despite being put in a very difficult position to open the season. They got whipped silly in the opener at PIT, but then against TEN, they were in the red zone all day, and the final score in that game was NO WHERE NEAR an indication of how the game was played. HOU should have covered the spread in that game, and could have won outright if they were able to convert a few TD's instead of kicking a few FG's and turning the ball over either on downs or INT's countless times.
Then they covered vs JAX in another game they could have won outright, but blew it.
Not to mention, during that stretch they suffered thru a hurricane that affected many of their personal lives, not to mention forced them to play 3 straight road games to open the season.
In all reality, we're talking about a HOU team here that has either been in or won each of their last 6 games, and could be 6-1, and more realistically should probably be 5-2. That Indy loss was a joke, in addition to the 2 i mentioned above. Tough to say they should have won @ TEN, but the JAX game and INDY games were definitely games they could have/probably should have won.
One thing I dislike about backing HOU is their tendency to allow late scores. Besides all the meltdowns I mentioned above, they also allowed the ****ty Lions to come back and make a game of it after having them buried at halftime....but with them being the dog, it's less likely such a thing will hurt, and i'm gonna roll with what i feel is the better team here today.
Cincinnati Bungles +7.5 (-105)
Fading Jacksonville. They shouldn't be a road fave of over a TD over anyone, including the Bungholes. JAX hasn't shown the ability to put anyone away, and CIN has played respectably at home, so while I wouldn't go as far as to say CIN will win (no ml play), i do think this should be a close ugly game of some sort.
Seattle Seahawks +7 (+100)
WTF am i thinking? LOL. I'm not sure, but I do know the WHOLE WORLD is on the Eagles (I have 84% ATS, 73% ML, 87% parlay/teaser on Philly), yet this line is still in pick the winner territory? Obviously the books are taking a stand on SEA this afternoon, and I'll be there with em.
Atlanta Falcons -3 (-105)
The fact that these guys ARE favored on the road tells me they are the play. It's not like ATL is a team getting a ton of respect or media hype, nor could it be said they're "overrated" in any manner. The oddsmakers wouldn't have favored em here and risked a huge pounding of sharp money on the home dog Raiders if they didn't think ATL was the better team and would probably win this game.
The bottom line for me is that ATL has the better team, and it's not like going against OAK is a hard thing to do, so i'll lay the -3 in a spot that imo is screaming for money on the home dog.
Indianapolis Colts -6 (-120)
Not sold on the Colts as being any type of contender this year from what I've seen of them, but this is pick the winner, and I think they bounce back tonight and get the home win here.
See, when I first saw this line, I thought it was just another inflated INDY line, and the public would be all over them. I mean how can a team that has played as poorly as INDY be laying -6 (or more) to a 5-2 NE team who has won 2 straight? The public is exactly split on this game according to my numbers at 50/50 though, yet Indy is still laying -6 (now -6.5) points? If Indy was SOOO terrible, and NE was such a good play, sharp money would have knocked this down closer to -4.
The truth is that NE must be capped as a "regular team" without Brady until proven otherwise....and "regular teams" often lose on the road. In NE's only road game vs anyone who doesn't suck (count out NYJ and SF), they got their lunch handed to em @ SD....oddly enough in a similar situation with the home team being desperate for a win.
With these things being said, I actually thought Indy looked ok vs a strong and undefeated TEN team. Better than I expected against a team they clearly did not match up well against, and were playing against on the road.
I don't care about Addai being back all that much, but history has proven the return of Bob Sanders brings good things to the Indy defense.
I think Indy takes this one, so pick the winner says lay the -6 points.
2 units each
Baltimore Raisins ml +110
St Louis Lambs ml +135
Green Bay ml +160
Houston Texases ml +190
Seattle Seabirds ml +265
1 unit each
dog ml's 17-22 (+6.35 units)
overall 75-64 (+30.55 units)
Denver Broncos -3.5 (-115)
Prefect letdown spot for MIA, while DEN is off a bye week, and prior to that an MNF pounding at the hands of NE, which has many declaring how much the Broncos suck. DEN will be looking to bounce back strong here today though, and with 2 weeks to prepare, I expect them to be able to do so.
MIA is improved, but not enough so that I think they can overcome this extremely poor situational spot. The wildcat formation hasn't really done **** since they used it @ NE, who was completely unprepared for it. I don't think it will work today either, and I don't think MIA has the personnel to line up and conventionally beat teams on the road just yet.
In a pick the winner scenario, DEN is the only choice for me in this game. Wouldn't be at all shocked to see this line hit DEN -5.5 or so by kickoff. I think there is sharp money on them today, and I think closer to game time the books will try to eat up all the late MIA action they can get by offering an extra point or two to those who will bite, knowing the points shouldn't come into play.
4 units
St Louis Lambs +3 (+100)
Lambs have been playing good ball since Haslett took over, while Zona has to travel eastward for a 2nd straight week. STL is actually central time zone, not eastern, but the game starts at noon central, so might as well be same difference i guess. In any case, it's amazing how clearly obvious it is that the Lambs disliked former coach Linehan and apparently refused to play for him. The talent was always there with this team, and motivation was obviously what they were lacking. That is no longer an issue since his firing, with the Lambs racking up a 2-1 record for Haslett with a road win @ Washington (VERY UN-Lamb like to win on the road, & vs an NFC east team no less), a home pounding of Dallas, and being very competitive @ NE last week.
So the Lambs are clearly a different team than the one that started 0-4.
Another big reason i'm on STL is simple. Zona is solid at home, but **** on the road where they are 1-3, with their lone win coming over the ultra pathetic SF 49ers. Them being a road fave is an auto fade, and especially anywhere not out west, where they actually do win some road games on occasion. At the same time, there was once upon a time where STL was a solid home team, and showed signs of that being true again this year with one solid 1st half vs BUF and the beat down of Dallas.
Arizona is the better team, imo, but not by much, and the situation favors STL. I think STL should be -3 here, not +3, so great line value on an STL team that I think has a better shot to win the game outright than does ARI.
Buffalo Bills -5
The Jets just aren't a good team. Getting this game in a pick the winner scenario is a gift. BUF is the better team, and they are in a great situation this week, coming home off a road loss @ MIA. Seems there is still a huge lack of respect for a Bills team that can play with anyone, while a team like say JAX, who clearly isn't very good keeps drawing TD or more fave lines.
BUF should have no problem beating a below average team like NYJ by a TD or more @ home, but the Favre name keeps this line way low. If Noodle Arm Pennington was still the NYJ QB, this line would be BUF -9 or more, and I don't the Favre makes the difference today.
In addition the 4 NYJ wins are about the weakest I have ever seen for a 4-3 NFL team. Home vs ARI - where ARI was in a horrible spot (east to west travel & 1pm start) and gave the game away in the 1st qtr (typical ARI on the road), then home wins over NFL doormats CIN and KC. The only win that looks even half respectable on their schedule is @ MIA, but that was before MIA got their **** together, so take the one for what you will.
Baltimore Raisins +2 (+100)
The Browns haven't had have much offense this year. Despite putting up 35 vs NYG (mainly all because of NYG turnovers and a defensive score), and 23 in a win @ overrated Jax last week, every other game they've been pretty much held in check. I think the BAL defense can do the same today.
I expect a ton of dropsies from Winslow and Edwards today too, with heavy hits looming from the BAL secondary, and don't expect much from Stallworth and his paper thin hamstrings either, if he even plays.
It could be said that CLE has the revenge angle here after taking the 28-10 loss earlier in the season @ BAL, but I don't think they're a good enough team to man up and take the win here today, as i think they've got wusses who break out the alligator arms and drop the ball at the first sign of an oncoming defender in basically all the important skill positions. So that leaves Jamal Lewis and the ground game to get the job done, which I don't think BAL will allow to happen.
So yea, basically i'm fading the Browns as a fave, lol. I think they're getting too much respect for beating NYG in a spot that was very favorable to them, and then beating a JAX team that just isn't that good.
Kinda pissed that this line went to BAL +2.5 (+100) and +120 ml right after i put the play in. Hoping that hook doesn't matter.
Green Bay Cheese Heads +4
Just going against the apparently bad spot TEN is in today. I think with a short week to prepare and off a huge win over INDY, they will fall flat on their faces today and take their first loss at the hands of a capable GB team.
Houston Texases +5
Can't envision laying points with MIN with they way they've played football this year.
In addition, Houston hasn't actually fared too poorly on the road, despite being put in a very difficult position to open the season. They got whipped silly in the opener at PIT, but then against TEN, they were in the red zone all day, and the final score in that game was NO WHERE NEAR an indication of how the game was played. HOU should have covered the spread in that game, and could have won outright if they were able to convert a few TD's instead of kicking a few FG's and turning the ball over either on downs or INT's countless times.
Then they covered vs JAX in another game they could have won outright, but blew it.
Not to mention, during that stretch they suffered thru a hurricane that affected many of their personal lives, not to mention forced them to play 3 straight road games to open the season.
In all reality, we're talking about a HOU team here that has either been in or won each of their last 6 games, and could be 6-1, and more realistically should probably be 5-2. That Indy loss was a joke, in addition to the 2 i mentioned above. Tough to say they should have won @ TEN, but the JAX game and INDY games were definitely games they could have/probably should have won.
One thing I dislike about backing HOU is their tendency to allow late scores. Besides all the meltdowns I mentioned above, they also allowed the ****ty Lions to come back and make a game of it after having them buried at halftime....but with them being the dog, it's less likely such a thing will hurt, and i'm gonna roll with what i feel is the better team here today.
Cincinnati Bungles +7.5 (-105)
Fading Jacksonville. They shouldn't be a road fave of over a TD over anyone, including the Bungholes. JAX hasn't shown the ability to put anyone away, and CIN has played respectably at home, so while I wouldn't go as far as to say CIN will win (no ml play), i do think this should be a close ugly game of some sort.
Seattle Seahawks +7 (+100)
WTF am i thinking? LOL. I'm not sure, but I do know the WHOLE WORLD is on the Eagles (I have 84% ATS, 73% ML, 87% parlay/teaser on Philly), yet this line is still in pick the winner territory? Obviously the books are taking a stand on SEA this afternoon, and I'll be there with em.
Atlanta Falcons -3 (-105)
The fact that these guys ARE favored on the road tells me they are the play. It's not like ATL is a team getting a ton of respect or media hype, nor could it be said they're "overrated" in any manner. The oddsmakers wouldn't have favored em here and risked a huge pounding of sharp money on the home dog Raiders if they didn't think ATL was the better team and would probably win this game.
The bottom line for me is that ATL has the better team, and it's not like going against OAK is a hard thing to do, so i'll lay the -3 in a spot that imo is screaming for money on the home dog.
Indianapolis Colts -6 (-120)
Not sold on the Colts as being any type of contender this year from what I've seen of them, but this is pick the winner, and I think they bounce back tonight and get the home win here.
See, when I first saw this line, I thought it was just another inflated INDY line, and the public would be all over them. I mean how can a team that has played as poorly as INDY be laying -6 (or more) to a 5-2 NE team who has won 2 straight? The public is exactly split on this game according to my numbers at 50/50 though, yet Indy is still laying -6 (now -6.5) points? If Indy was SOOO terrible, and NE was such a good play, sharp money would have knocked this down closer to -4.
The truth is that NE must be capped as a "regular team" without Brady until proven otherwise....and "regular teams" often lose on the road. In NE's only road game vs anyone who doesn't suck (count out NYJ and SF), they got their lunch handed to em @ SD....oddly enough in a similar situation with the home team being desperate for a win.
With these things being said, I actually thought Indy looked ok vs a strong and undefeated TEN team. Better than I expected against a team they clearly did not match up well against, and were playing against on the road.
I don't care about Addai being back all that much, but history has proven the return of Bob Sanders brings good things to the Indy defense.
I think Indy takes this one, so pick the winner says lay the -6 points.
2 units each
Baltimore Raisins ml +110
St Louis Lambs ml +135
Green Bay ml +160
Houston Texases ml +190
Seattle Seabirds ml +265
1 unit each
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