Week 11 Discussion

[Furashu]

Didnt see one so... i made one! wooooo

unless i am blind then sorry lol!

first year here but heres my insights on a few games i like/ am considering!

Patriots -3.5 vs Jets
Jets are OVERRATED, let me repeat this again, they are overrated. the jets STINK. they had a huge defensive game vs an o-lineless/steven jacksonless, benched qb RAMS, and the whole world thinks they are superbowl bound or something. Jets got lucky vs the bills, beat a crappy rams team, barely beat KC team who half their team is off the street signed free agents. The line should be -5.5 at least for the patriots, who i believe are UNDERRATED! Patriots defense is making great plays and i dont think bill will make any more dumb coaching decisions like he did @ indy.

Titans -3 vs Jags
Again why is the line so low? The jags have been sucking big balls and just beat a really crappy lions team! Jags still have no o-line and their defense isnt doing too much for them cause theyre on the field for more then half the game. Jag's Four wins were 1 very lucky one vs Colts when they sucked, they squeaked out a win vs houston by 3 pts, Got lucky vs Denver which also is a bad team, and beat the qb-less lions to a pulp. Huge win last week, huge let down this week. I Dont know what their record is ATS vs a road win or in a divisional game vs the Titans, but the titans won last week vs the Run and this week theyre facing the jags who allow 114 yds rushing per game.. and the only real run team they faced so far was the steelers, titans and maybe bills? I recall the brownies had about 150 ish rush yards.

Giants - 6 vs Ravens
Yomonte and someone else kept repeating that the ravens were on their 3rd game on the road in a row and its time for a let down. I dont think the ravens can play with the same intensity after coming off a huge win vs Houston. The giants are very good defensively at forcing teams to be one dimensional, If its up to the flacco to win the game i dont think he can doit. I dont think the game will be a blow out, but i think the giants will win and cover.

Steelers -4 Vs Chargers
The last time the steelers came off a close loss... was the MNF game. Chargers are overrated. Their defense SUCKS. I am a huge charger fan but i wont lie, our defense BLOWS. Sure we can score points, but if the defense cant stop anything, the chargers will not win. Steelers play very well at home, its a late game in pittsburgh, theyre coming off a horrid loss which they shouldve/couldve won, i think they bounce back.


thats all i really saw value in...

all favorites i know :sm:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Like the Giants and Titans for sure. :thumbs:

Actually surprised to see alot of poeple licking their chops at playing the Jags at home. Problem is, the only reasoning I read is that the Titans "won't go undefeated this year" and they are "due for a loss". OK...maybe, but not against a ****ty Jags team. They beat the Lions. Great. I backed them last week, but still felt sick about it, and it was more of a fade of the Lions and their embarrasing QB situation. Turned out to be the right play, but I really think the Titans blow out Jax this week... and a big win by Jax last week gives us an insanely low -2.5 line. LOL...I'd play Tenn laying 6...

I will also be forced to lay some more square chalk against the Seahawks again this week! lol. Only 3? I have to...Hasselbeck be damned....

****ty prime time games for capping IMO...no idea what I am going to do with Thursday, Sunday and Monday Night games this week, wow...

[Furashu]

I was thinking Bills on MNF, the just cause brady quinn is in denver defense is horrid, the bills not so much, theyre playing solid D and trent edwards has strugled because hes faced good d-lines. THe browns defense is HORRID and romeo crennel cant rally his team for crap his lines to the media regarding quinn" Lets hope he doesnt fall on his face" LOL

[Underdog88]

I understand that the Ravens are in a bad spot, but really how "huge" was the Ravens win last week? IMO the Ravens aren't going to be complacent anytime soon. The Giants are a good team for sure, probably the best in the NFC. However, I think the Ravens are better than people realize. I think if it was up to him, Flacco could win the game.


I don't know what I'm thinking, but the Steelers look too easy. I think the Chargers find a way to win that game. That's an unpopular play right there I'm sure.


Texans +9.5 looks good. Colts win su as a dog & are now favored by 9+? Texans should find a way to stay within the number with revenge....

[Underdog88]

I was thinking Bills on MNF, the just cause brady quinn is in denver defense is horrid, the bills not so much, theyre playing solid D and trent edwards has strugled because hes faced good d-lines. THe browns defense is HORRID and romeo crennel cant rally his team for crap his lines to the media regarding quinn" Lets hope he doesnt fall on his face" LOL

I wouldn't play the Bills as faves right now. Their D is in serious trouble, & this Browns team has too many weapons on offense to stretch out a defense that is already thin. Bills have no pass rush, & the Browns have the O-line to give Quinn time. Cassel couldn't hold Quinn's jock strap, & he just checked down all day. I think we see Quin stretch the field with Braylon & then kill the Bills with the short pass. Just watched the Bills game again & Posluszny was very inneffective. Maybe game over too, because the Browns can't stop the run. The Bills get a run game going & their offense will look great. Problem is the run blocking has been atrocious.

[Furashu]

Ill have to talk that Houston play over with Biff... me and him have hit playing against houston.. Lol!

[Daws1089]

I actually think the browns defensive line is pretty good. Rogers and Smith are beasts and buffalo hasnt been able to run for **** lately. Bills offense is really struggling as a whole. I think Edwards is still feeling the after affects of the concussion. Hes not totally comfortable after experiencing it. I know what its like from experience, but I would be playing the browns here. Bills are reeling fast.

[Daws1089]

I couldn't agree more Udog about the chargers. However, I have no justification for why I think they win although I did think the line was a lot lower than I expected. I thought it would be near -6 or -7.

[Furashu]

If u saw trent play... donno whos from buffalo or that area.. but it seems the opposing defenses have stop respecting buffalo's ability to run the ball and blitzing like mad, he gets flushed out alot and cant handle the pressure...

i believe the bolts line is lower because the chargers are the Public's favorite team or something.. i am a huge bolts fan but... how the heck can they win on the road....with that defense. if the bolts defense shows or big ben screws up then yeah but its not likely.

[Stifler's Mom]

I agree about NE. That game should be like cherry picking in prime time.

The Patriots are looking awesome (as much as I HATE to say it), and the public loves taking a team as a dog off a 47 point performance, a 40 point HALF, etc etc.

The fact is that NE is the better team, Cassel is starting to look almost "Bradylike" with his poise and accuracy, and Bellicheat hates Mangini and the Jets.

Not to mention the Jets are tied for the division lead, so it's a huge game as far as that goes too.

The NE secondary will have Favre confused all night, imo, and he will look as bad as he did trying to throw against the Bills.....except that NE WILL capitalize, unlike BUF.

It's pick the winner, and NE doesn't let this one get away @ home on Thurs night....

[Stifler's Mom]

Dallas should beat Washington on SNF too. A week off is what Dallas needed to regroup (and get healthy) imo, and with revenge, a must win, and their QB back, the more talented team should take that one. Skins overachieving so far and Dallas underachieving gets us a really generous -1...which if you think about it, is nothing more than the oddsmakers telling us who they think is going to win. A Dallas team the public is way down on LAYING any type of points on the road against a 6-3 opponent? At the very least it should be Dallas +1,

UD - I blame NE being effective more than BUF being ineffective for last week's embarrassing showing. Still not sure what to say about the Jets loss though, lol

As I watched NE, i felt like i was watching flashbacks of Brady picking the Bills defense apart the last few years. I keep hearing people say that NE is somehow "overrated", but i don't get it. They still have all the same weapons on offense (minus Brady and Maroney), and while Cassel and Green-Ellis are not of the same caliber, they are stepping up and getting the job done. This essentially the same team that was "unstoppable" last year, and "the best team of all time" at alot of positions. A guy lost here and there doesn't take them from that, all the way down to doormat status....

I'm done doubting the Patriots just because Brady went down. Cassel looked like garbage at first, but he's certainly come around with some practice time and game experience, and NE has plugged in RB after RB since like 2000 and hasn't missed a beat. It's not like these are the first injuries they've overcome, and they won't be the last...

As for the MNF game, this is make or break for the Bills. Go to 5-5 in the AFC where you will need 10+ wins to get in imo, and it's all but lights out unless you run the table, unlike the NFC where you can get in at 8-8 pretty much every year, lol.

The Browns are a wimpy team. I've said it for weeks now, and they certainly haven't done anything to change my mind. While I'm as much down on the Bills as anyone, I don't see any reason to believe the wussy Browns somehow find a way to regroup and win a road game of any sort after the way a downright bad Denver team punked them last Thursday.

Not the most confident pick for me right now, but i'd be on the Bills if i had to choose a side right now.

[Stifler's Mom]

Another game I like ALOT is Cincinnati +9 over Philly.

The Eagles are a decent (but FAR from great) club, having to come off a tough MNF loss and "get up" to play the ****ty Bungholes on the road with only 5 days to prepare.....while the ****ty Bungholes have had 2 weeks to prepare, and have to finally be feeling better about the fact that they can be competitive after getting win #1.

Plus, as bad as CIN has looked, it's not like these guys have exactly played a cakewalk of a schedule. BAL, TEN, NYG, DAL, PIT....ouch. You could even throw NYJ in there, as they have somehow managed to get to 6-3....making the only real "bad" losses on their schedule the 35-6 drubbing they took @ Houston and losing to the Winslow Vaginas 20-12 @ home.

Philly may still find a way to get the win, but asking them to win by double digits is a bit too much in this spot, imho....

[Stifler's Mom]

Oh, and how the hell could anyone lay -5.5 points with the 'Aints on the road?

I know backing KC is always tough, especially getting less than a TD, but the 'Aints are like 0'for the last decade on the road, lol....

Anyone have any thoughts on ATL/DEN? ATL looks TOO EASY there at -6, up from -4, which i believe was probably from a mixture of early public and sharp money....which would make this one of the rare times the public and sharps agree.

ATL is for real....and DEN sucks, and shouldn't win 2 straight road games, making ATL -6 the no brainer pick using pick the winner.

Like I said, it scares me, because it looks TOO easy...

[Daws1089]

Stif,

Philly played sunday night so they have as much rest as any other team that played on sunday. I think you just thought they played monday instead of sunday night even though you had a bet on the 9ers monday night? lol

I don't see how anyone could lay the -9.5 in that one.

[Stifler's Mom]

Yea, you're right about Philly. Duh oh my part, lol. For some reason that just felt like the MNF game to me, i guess because the SF/ARI match up was so unappealing....

More thoughts:

I also think TB should take care of MIN this week.

TB is nothing but solid at home, coming off a bye.

MIN coming off an emotional win, where they dominated physically, but still needed a late TD to win because they are sloppy and their special teams SUCK.

TB should be playing on the MIN side of the field for alot of this game due to that fact alone.

I see no real way MIN wins this game outright unless TB plays like **** and hands it away....

The TEN/JAX line is the WTF line of the week as far as i'm concerned.

JAX sucks, and TEN is the more solid team, so why such a low line? I am still not convinced about TEN enough to lay points with them on the road, in what would equate to their second straight road win/cover, even though they are playing yet another sub .500 team that they are better than and on a neutral field, all things equal, would beat probably 9 out of 10 times.

Problem is that this isn't being played on a neutral field, and situational wise, all things are not equal. These factors point to JAX.

78% on TEN right now too in what I feel is a bad spot for them, but the +3 is juiced to hell already for JAX, which is also a red flag for me.

If i were to back JAX, I'd feel better if they were +2.5 -110 instead of +3 -120 or +3 -125.

One thing of note, is that TEN and JAX play a similar style. I think both teams will be happy to throw punches at each other for 3+ qtrs, and go for the win late if need be. So, barring huge mistakes that make the game go lopsided early, i think this one comes down to the wire....possibly making the points a nice bonus to have.