***Week 12 Discussion***

[BoilerBacker]

They went 1-2 against dal, pit, & nyg @ home. Then they were up 27-13 on bal, and lost 27-37. They were up 23-10 on den, and lost 30-34. If the browns can play all 4q's they win with no problem. I sure in hell wouldn't lay any money on hou, they suck! :beer2:

Living in Houston and being a big Browns fan..... I think Houston is better overall. Both defenses suck ass but Houston's offense is better. I would probably get stoned to death in CLE for saying it....and also saying I dont understand why Anderson was benched. Turnovers will be big today. HOU is bad at giving the ball up. Quinn has taken care of the ball.

[homedawg]

why is everyone in love with the browns today?

They went 1-2 against dal, pit, & nyg @ home. Then they were up 27-13 on bal, and lost 27-37. They were up 23-10 on den, and lost 30-34. If the browns can play all 4q's they win with no problem. I sure in hell wouldn't lay any money on hou, they suck! :beer2:

[Stifler's Mom]

why is everyone in love with the browns today?

I agree. I'll be on HOU myself.

Also, I'm leaning real hard towards throwing more $$ out the window with the Viqueens this week. The line & movement is telling me to do so

MIN is +1 +107 @ Pinny and +2.5 +100 @ SIA. Where is the sharper money, and where is the public money?

As much as i hate to say/do it, I think MIN is the smarter play :puke:

[Larry]

why is everyone in love with the browns today?

Houston winless on the road. And out of their 3 wins overall this year 2 of them are vs Det and Cincy. My guess is that it's probably more of a fade of Houston.

[Daws1089]

why is everyone in love with the browns today?

[Underdog88]

Perhaps you're right Stif. I just fail to see Jax getting up for this one when their season is pretty much over. IMO if you think the Jags are going to run on Minny, than the over could be a solid option... Maybe I lay off this one altogether.



I like the Titans again this week over the Jets. From a matchup standpoint this Titans team has an advantage imo. Jets have won when they stopped the run, but this Titans team presents a challenge in that department. The Jets are 1-3 when their opponents get over the 100 yd mark on the ground. The one win came last week as NE rushed for 104 but lost in ot. The Titans are easily the best run team the Jets will have faced. They are also a solid defense against the run, though they did give up a ton of yardage last week vs the Jags. Look at their opponent's rankings in rushing offense vs teams they beat. Stl#25, Buf#24, KC#16, Cin#30, Zona#29..... Titans#7. One of these things is not like the other :sm:

[Stifler's Mom]

AAAHHHH.....I did not hear you say you're leaning towards playing the Viqueens AGAIN did I?

You talked me OFF TB and onto MIN last week, because I will admit, TB looked TOO easy, laying just -4 off a bye @ home to a very underachieving Viqueens team, and you were right.....until MIN gave the game away ATS at the end with their "special" special teams play, and then the lovely Childress completely neglecting that he has Adrian Peterson and allowing 49 year old journeyman Gus Frerotte throw on EVERY DOWN....not one drive, but TWO!!

Every week they are the "better team" on paper it seems. I will agree that your capping is solid as far as that goes, but do you watch these guys play? They are without a doubt the stupidest team in the NFL (starting from the top with the loser Childress), and they have the worst special teams in the league as well.

In addition, they cannot put anyone away because they can't score, so it doesn't matter how much they're dominating the game, just one solid TD drive (or punt return, lol) against them, and the opposition is right back in the game.

If you put a guy like Bellicheat in charge of this Viqueen team, they would be rolling over people 52-10 every week, they have that much talent, but unfortunately, that's not the case, and as long as they continue to underachieve under Brad Childloser, I don't understand how they are a good play, ever.

[Underdog88]

On the Denver game Found this stat.

A. Denver 4-14-1 ATS last 19 @ home.
B. Two of the home covers above were against OAK

I don't put too much stock into this stat, simply because the one home cover is from 2006, with completely different rosters & situations. That game was with Collins @qb, Crockett @rb vs Plummer, Bell & Mike Anderson. The Denver home game last year was won 23-20 in ot, so I guess they were favored by less than 3? If anything, it makes me like the Raiders even more....

[Underdog88]

When it looks too good to be true it more than likely is especially in the nofunleague. That being said how does a shiat bungles team that is coming off a 5 quarter game, lots of injuries, a benched 85 keep this within the number...answer....because it is the N F L and that is the way **** goes. Have not made up my mind on this one but I would imagine everyone and there grand mother will ride Steel town tonite....I say not so fast my friend...what say you?

I tend to agree. Not too fond of laying DD with a team that hasn't won @ home by more than 7 since opening day vs the Texans. Pitt found a way to win last week vs SD (Rivers), but they didn't look so hot. Still, look at their remaining schedule....

@NE

vs Dallas

@Balty (ravens have revenge)

@Tenn

vs Clev


Very tough stretch of games ahead for Pitt, I highly doubt they look ahead to anyone with the Ravens breathing down their neck. I have a tough time seeing the Bengals pulling off a su win tonight, so that makes it tough for me to grab the points. Looks like Ocho Cinco is out for tonight's game too, which at the very least will make it easier for Pitt to double Houshmanzilly.

[rawhide]

On the Denver game Found this stat.

A. Denver 4-14-1 ATS last 19 @ home.
B. Two of the home covers above were against OAK

[BoKnows]

When it looks too good to be true it more than likely is especially in the nofunleague. That being said how does a shiat bungles team that is coming off a 5 quarter game, lots of injuries, a benched 85 keep this within the number...answer....because it is the N F L and that is the way **** goes. Have not made up my mind on this one but I would imagine everyone and there grand mother will ride Steel town tonite....I say not so fast my friend...what say you?

[Underdog88]

I hear what you're saying, and maybe you're right, but SD has physically handled Indy every time they've played for the last few years, not just once....and Peyton seems to not have figured out their defensive scheme yet either, as he seems to always struggle against them

Natural grass seems to slow Indy a step or two also.

I do agree, however, that they Indy is the better team, and that they're getting healthy and seems they're "peaking" at the right time, and also that SD, along with the rest of the AFC West, sucks.

Good point about the natural grass. West does suck, funny to think SD is 4-6 & with a win/Denver loss, they are 1 game out of first....Tough to bet against Indy/Peyton su, but SD desperately needs this win. Houston shredded the Colts run d yet again last week. I just don't see how LT doesn't have a breakout game here. If the Chargers were smart they would have 45+ rushing attempts between LT/Sproles. Keep Manning off the field & get him out of rhythm early.

[Underdog88]

I'm looking on Betus, who the F--k would pay -150 for Vikings team total over 17.5???
That seems so ridiculous. First of all, minn is on the road. Their offense isn't very good to begin with. I'm sure jax will be focused on peterson and make Gus beat them. I just couldn't justify paying that amount for that wager. Its under or nothing for me.

I would definitely be down to play o19 even. I don't lay juice that high on team totals (especially one with the hook still out there?), but I wouldn't be on the under. Jags opponents pts scored @Jax

20 to buffalo

27 to Houston

26 to Pitt

23 to Cleveland

24 to Ten.

I actually have a lean to the Vikings here. Both teams are pretty much equal in the pasdsing game with bo0th averaging 6.7 ypp. The Vikings have the #4 rushing attack, averaging 4.5 ypc/139 per game, & Jax has allowed 4.3 ypc. The Jags can't win unless they get an effective run game going, & they are facing a defense that allows 3ypc/ 68 per game. The Jags haven't won when they have been held under 115 yds rushing (0-5). The Jags rushing stats in their 4 wins

236 vs Indy

139 vs Houston

155 vs Den

157 vs Det

I just don't see them running all over the Vikings defense, so for me it comes down to turnovers.....

[Underdog88]

A case for the Raiders+ pts & game over 43


Raiders have revenge in a divisional rivalry game after losing 41-14 @ home to them in week 1. The Raiders were able to run, with 150 on the ground but couldn't stop the Donkeys, who had 441 total yds.

Now Denver is getting attention after two straight road wins as dogs...I backed them both games, but definitely not this week. 2 su road wins as dogs and are now favored by 9.5? This is a spot where I look to back the unpopular dog, especially when the team was 14 last 5 before the road wins. Let's look a little deeper into the Broncos team. Here are their games @ home

won by 1 vs SD

won by 2 vs NO

won by 3 vs TB

lost by 7 to Jax

lost by 9 to Miami

In the game vs Miami they were outgained & had 14 rushing yds. Jax ran for 155 vs them. The three wins were all by 3 pts or less, & they were able to hold the run game in check. Looking at their last two wins, they were a far cry from dominating wins. They were outgained vs Atlanta, & had the come from behind victory vs the Browns gift-wrapped. The Browns had 400 total yds & 160 on the ground! In losses to KC, NE they gave up 213 & 257 yds respectively. They have the #26 ranked rushing D allowing 4.9ypc/ 143 per game. Oakland is around the same vs the run, but they aren't the ones favored!

Oakland is off a last second loss to Miami where they needed a kick return just to get in the endzone. However, the Fins were able to stall the run, which Denver has yet to prove they are capable of. Looking at their schedule, they have faced Miami#9, Carolina#17, ATL, Balty#3 & the Jets#4. Not the easiest buch of defenses to run against, 3 of which are in the top 10 vs the run. Denver is definitely not in the top 10, could be a good situation for the #10 rushing offense to put up points...
Raiders on the road....


won @KC by 15

lost @Buf by 1 pt

lost @NO by 31

lost @Bal by 19

lost @Mia by 2


3-2 ats with both ats losses coming against teams who were able to stop the run. Sole win vs a divisional opponent. Oakland managed a revenge win last year @home34-20 after losing 23-20 in ot @Den. They had over 175 rushing yards in both games last season. As if you couldn't guess, the Oakland run game is the key to victory, and I think I'm going to need McFadden in the lineup to make the play. Denver will be without lb Webster & fs McRee, & it seems as if Champ will return. Strong lean to Oak & over....

[Daws1089]

Also, I'm sure the schemes are different, but Indy was also able to take down pitt who runs a 3-4 also so it isn't just the actual 3-4 he struggles with, it must be something else.