****NFL Week 1 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

I really like the Titans with 6, thought it would be 3 so 6 looks real apealing, so ill be all over Pitt....

In what world would the Steelers be -3 in a home opener?

[hodown]

I got bored so I dug up some stats over the last 3 seasons for Week 1.

Pick the Winner scenario: winner covered 39 of 41 if spread is 7 or less (95%)

Homedawgs: covered 8 of 19 (42%)

Dawgs greater than 7: covered 6 of 7 (86%)



I also dug up some stats over the entire season last year

Homedawgs: covered 29 of 69 (42%)

Dawgs greater than 7: covered 32 of 57 (56%)


I think we're all aware that pick the winner is effective, but homedawgs definitely took a hit in value last year. The numbers were actually worse for homedawgs through the first half of the season, which was opposite of my expectations.

[Underdog88]

I too am baffled why ARIZONA is in a "pick the winner" situation vs SF. From memory (again), the LOSER of the previous year's super bowl USUALLY kinda stinks the next year though, and ALMOST always fails to even make the playoffs.

The su loser in the SB is 0-9 ats last 9 years in the following regular season opener. Not a trend player but I do usually play this angle. SF should be a much more disciplined team this season, and I think they have the players on defense to keep games close. Not too sure if they have enough to win games like this one, but the line tells me vegas expects a close fight. Here's another trend stats- the road team is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. The Niners have played Zona tough in the past couple matchups, and they did finish the seaon 5-2 in the last 7 played. I get a feeling there could be some 7.5 out there come gametime. That is one dog I have my eyes on.


Perhaps an even better play may be the under- if the 49ers are planning on keeping it close, I would expect smash mouth ball control. It is Mike Singletary after all. Scary to play on an under with this Zona team, but I do think it is a bit high....

[Guest]

I think the over is a good play in the Car/PHL: O43.5 - Carolina will let up a lot passing yards, both teams will be sloppy on defense. I like the eagles to win outright, but I am an eagles fan.

Ten/Pit: U35 - I think this came screams 17-10. Since 2000, the Super Bowl champ is 8-1-1 against the spread. In 2000, the super bowl champs rams did not cover 6.5 spread.

I like Miami to win outright. I feel 2nd year QB matt ryan will struggle with miami's defense. Atlanta gives up points.

I like the over in the chargers/raiders game. O43

[Underdog88]

um so there are reports of Derek Anderson being traded to the Bills? WTF I am going to be sick :puke:

[birdsfan5]

um so there are reports of Derek Anderson being traded to the Bills? WTF I am going to be sick :puke:

What he is a top 5 QB:beerbang:

[Underdog88]

nevermind false alarm :beerbang:

[daft_picks]

Anyone else like the over 46 in either the Niners/Cards or Packers/Bears game? I see a lot of points scored in these games, would be surprised if they didn't go over the total. I think the Packers cover -3.5 no problem as well.

[Underdog88]

I think the Packers and over both look like decent plays. From the looks of things GB should have an explosive offense, and the Bears D is definitely not what it used to be. I also think that GB could have some defensive growing pains with the 3-4, and Forte out of the backfield and on delayed draws could be a problem. 47 is a tough number though...

[Daws1089]

I agree with Underdog that GB should cover, but I am having trouble with the over hitting. Chicago is going to use both tight ends and Forte as their top WRs so that means a lot of dink and dunks and shorter throws with an occasional look down field to a WR. The good thing for the over is that the Bears defense does not get much of a pass rush and Packers are adjusting to the 3-4, although the Packers defense looked just fine in the 3-4 in the preseason. So I'm leaning more towards GB -3.5 rather than the over so far.

[Daws1089]

One dog that isn't being talked about really is Washington +6.5. A divisional game to begin the season, a rematch of last year's opening game (which nyg won) and we have the makings og a good one. Wash has really upped the ante on defense with adding hall and haynesworth to an already stout D. The giants will struggle to throw the ball I think with the lack of a number 1 WR. No one to demand double coverage from the opponent and no one has really emerged as the number 1 guy. I also think Campbell is smart enough with the football to give Washington a chance. Campbell is primed for a break out year too, I just hope he has enough weapons to do so. Other than portis, Moss, and Cooley there is a big drop off to Kelly and Randle El.

One other thing I would like to point out is the NYG defense will be different. No Spagnuolo to call the D, no Michael Boley and Weak OLB because of a suspension, no Jay Alford up front, Aaron Ross is still suffering from the hamstring injury so their D is beat up. I think Washington can win this game and they are really flying under the radar this year in a busy NFC East they often get brushed aside, but this defense is enough for me to side with them for week 1. It also wouldn't hurt to have the +6.5 pts if the game came down to the wire.

[recovering77]

Good to see you and everyone back again Underdog. I've been wagering still, but picking my spots. It's good to see that we are on the same games.

I like Cleveland here and the +3.5 now. Much better home team than people give them credit for, plus all the reasons you listed.

Also like Carolina in basically a pick-em game against the popular SB pick Philly.

Fading the public gave me great success last season, but I know from previous experience that public picks tend to win often in the beginning of the season. For example, I would have bet my life on Houston last season vs. Indy, but somehow they blew that 21 point lead. End of the season, it almost seemed automatic that heavy public picks were losing.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Minny and Carolina cover here.

[Daws1089]

I like the Bengals in this one. The books put them out as favorites which is tough to do, but the line has steadily grown from -3. They have a better defense than most think, and a veteran quarterback. Coles and Ochostinko should be able to exploit dawkins and co in that secondary. The Broncos are moving to a 3-4 scheme so I expect a bunch of problems there. Their 3 d-lineman have a combined like 4 sacks in their career and thats not because they are rookies or 2nd year guys. Its because they are career back up players. The Broncos had better hope that dumervill can rush the passer or Palmer will have all sorts of time to throw. Broncos are not headed for a good season in my opinion. There just isn't enough there inclding a new head coach who I think will struggle.

[Underdog88]

Daws you are my favorite NFL poster. Have similar thoughts on a couple games, starting to (gulp) warm up to a Bengals play, possibly the team over. If they are somewhat back in form, they'll score on Denver.

Paging Nigel!!!! He had a great read on Cincy last season....



SF seemingly becoming a darling pick, kind of scares me. I may be on that under still.

I will be on the Lions. I think the Saints are overvalued. 13.5 is begging you to lay 2tds, and Calvin is the truth. I'm going to have to wait to see the Saints D before I get all crazy laying chalk.

I'm also thinking the same about Atlanta, wary of their defense. I hate the Fins, but they do have the better defense imo. Nobody wants to back needle arm on the road vs the almighty Ryan! I dunno, I have this sneaking suspicion the dolphins are coming to play....