***NFL Week 3 Impressions/Discussions***

[Underdog88]

ok read every post up to this point, very valid points & reasoning.

Jags/Texans- I can understand the play on the home team here, as they clearly have the better talent offensively. They have to be riding high after beating the Titans, and they may want to put a show on at home. Simply put I don't trust them. I still think they are capable of laying an egg at any point. The Titans shredded them and Jones Drew is for real. Because the Jags fell behind fast was taken out of the game last week, but I think the Jags pound the run this week. I was happy to fade the Jags last week as I thought they were in a bad spot, but now down 0-2 (keep in mind they played the Colts great week 1). They are a team that I would look to back as a dog or not at all, same as the Texans. No idea which offenses/defenses show up, so right now I'm either on Jags +pts & ML or nothing.

Patriots/Falcons- The Patriots looked lost last week. Can the Falcons be trusted on the road? Last season they started off horribly on the road but finished with a couple big road wins (@GB and @SD). I think they have the offense to score on the Pats, but I'm not into betting against Brady @home off a loss. At least not here- Waiting to see what's up with Welker, but I have a lean to the over 45. Too many offensive weapons for there not to be TDs scored. Gun to my head I would lean Patriots.....

[GMoney]

A couple of games I'm starting to back off on:

I think this is the first week the Vikings will need Favre to actually throw a pass further than 15 yards downfield. San Francisco will dare him to beat them and if they're somewhat successful at limiting AP, do you trust Favre to deliver smart plays, especially vs. Clements and Wilis? Those guys are playmakers.

Detroit is such a trendy play this week that I'm getting scared. And I read Kevin's 'wow' thread and don't believe in blindly fading the public...but when everyone starts to pile on an underdog or a 'sleeper' it genearlly disappoints. Even some talking head on ESPN said they would pull out the W. Washington still has a pretty strong D and they could make things very difficult on the rookie QB.

Plays I'm starting to like:

Still thinkHouston, Chicago and Arizona are my top three plays this week

I'm starting to really like San Diego as well. Miami is just not good and not in a good spot coming across the country on a short week. SD usually tough at home, and they absolutely need a win. Stop the Wildcat and there is no way Pennington is beating Cromartie and my Arizona boy Antoine Cason. I'm hesitent because SD has burnt me two weeks in a row...

[Underdog88]

I'm counting 6 homedawgs on the slate, and I don't like any of them.

NYG -7 @ TB
Wash -6.5 @ Det
GB -6.5 @ STL
Chi -2.5 @ Sea
Pitt -4 @ Cinci
NO -5.5 @ Buf

I couldn't play on TB, and have faded them the past two weeks. If anything I would play on the over, because they have no D, so they're going to have to put up 24+ to win.

I think the Redskins are going to pound on the Lions. They match up well with them and should be able to move the ball on the ground. Once again if I were to make a play on Detroit it would have to be 1sth, as I feel once the Lions D gets tired the Skins could pound the ball into the endzone.

Does GB deserve to 6.5 pt road favorites? Not too sure about that. The Bengals ran the ball down the Packers throats, which is the one thing the Rams can do effectively. The Rams defense is good, and GB's defensive backfield is scary with Bigby and Collins banged up. IMO Rams or nothing here....

I think the Saints will be too much for the Bills, and Buffalo would have to play a flawless defensive game, and play a solid 4 quarters to get the win. Unless the Saints just pull a no-show, which I just don't forsee. That division could come down to the wire so I suspect they stay motivated.

[Underdog88]

One game that is interesting to me is PITT/CIN. At +4 the Bengals look more enticing of a bet than pitt-4. Now this could be an overreaction to last week's great performance in GB, but Cincinatti has things together. Their defense is really good. Most probably can't name more than a guy or two on the D, but it is solid as any. THey really only gave up 17 to GB since one td was a INT returned for a td and ake away that fluke play to end the Broncos game and they hold them to single digits. So once again I think Pitt will have a heck of a time moving the ball offensively. Their OC just loves to throw the ball and their o-line is not built to run the ball anymore. Big ben can only get away with so many bad throws before they start to result in turnovers. He holds the ball way too long. Bengals offensive showed some life last week against a defense I rank pretty highly, so that is encouraging. Add in the divisional rivalry at home and I might have to side with the Bengals. If the steelers were going to get that bounce back win wouldn't this line be pitt -7?

I don't think Pitt could be -7 when Cincy just went into Lambeau and beat GB. I think the line is set about right. That being said I don't see how could you lay road points with Pitt given the fact that they could easily be 0-2 right now? At the same time I don't know if I believe the Bengals are the real deal just yet. I agree with most of what you say, but I look at this being an over type game. GB was able to move the ball on Cincy, and I suspect the Steelers will as well. Big Ben does hold on to the ball, but that dude makes plays and he's a warrior. I have a tough time seeing this one staying under, as I think both can score 17 each minimum, so 37 isn't too bad looking.

[hodown]

True on GB, they don't deserve the 6.5 fave, but that 6.5 line is begging for your cash. I think most of those lines are no plays unless your picking out the right away fave. I've got a few units on Chicago ML -119, Sea is banged up and if Hasselbeck doesn't play, I like it even better.

[daft_picks]

Really like Chicago and New Orleans this week as well, I will be on those two for sure. To play devil's advocate though I have a feeling the 49ers may put up more of a fight than we think. The vikings have beaten 2 of the worst teams in the NFL by 14 points last week. I know their D is good but just looking at stats maybe it's not as good as last year. Jamal Lewis averaged over 5 yards per carry and had over 100 total yards. The following week he faced Denver and averaged about 2.7 ypc. Kevin Smith averaged about 3.5 ypc. The previous week he faced the New Orleans defense and managed less than 1.4 ypc. I know it's early in the season but I just don't think the Vikings are as good as people give them credit for. Both teams are 2-0 and while neither have beaten great teams I still am more impressed with the 49ers. Likely a teaser or no-play for me, just wanted to say why the Vikings worry me. If SF can shut down AP (way better chance than the other teams he has faced) it could spell trouble.

For the Lions I will maybe make a small ML play but I just can't back them with such a low spread. IMO they either somehow manage to win this game or choke and lose by DD. Even though the skins won last weekend I think they will be pissed at how bad they looked and will come out firing. Is it true that the public is heavily on the Lions this weekend? Weird, but maybe it's just too obvious after Washington did so terribly against the Lambs.

And what's not to like about the Giants -6.5 versus Tampa? The Giants are a complete football team capable of beating just about anybody. The Bucs have an offense that can put up points when they fight from behind because of the points they allow. OVER 44 seems a pretty good bet.

I think the Jags have a better chance than many would think, seems the public is heavily favoring the Texans. The Jags match up pretty well against the Texans and like the Titans are better than their 0-2 record indicates. Not that great of course but the Jags' strengths (most notably their run game) are the Texans' hugest weaknesses. This could be a total shootout too and easily go OVER 46.5. But I already see Jags +4 -105 out there, with all the close divisional games I've seen so far this season and the fact that it is still the Texans I will either be on the Jags or no play.

And my guy feeling just tells me the Pats cover the 4 against the Falcons this weekend. Really don't even have to reason it that much, I just think the Pats will get it done on Sunday.

Those are my feelings so far, may be back to discuss more later. Let's pick some winners :thumbs:

[Underdog88]

To play devil's advocate though I have a feeling the 49ers may put up more of a fight than we think. The vikings have beaten 2 of the worst teams in the NFL by 14 points last week. I know their D is good but just looking at stats maybe it's not as good as last year. Jamal Lewis averaged over 5 yards per carry and had over 100 total yards. The following week he faced Denver and averaged about 2.7 ypc. Kevin Smith averaged about 3.5 ypc. The previous week he faced the New Orleans defense and managed less than 1.4 ypc. I know it's early in the season but I just don't think the Vikings are as good as people give them credit for. Both teams are 2-0 and while neither have beaten great teams I still am more impressed with the 49ers. Likely a teaser or no-play for me, just wanted to say why the Vikings worry me. If SF can shut down AP (way better chance than the other teams he has faced) it could spell trouble.

I disagree with the Vikings run D not being as good as last year. They held the Browns team to under 90 rushing yards. As far as Detroit, they ran the ball nearly twice as much vs Minny, and were forced to abandon the run vs the Saints, thus the discrepency in ypc. IMO you can't really compare those numbers.... I do think the Niners could keep it close for the game, but I think Minny is capable of stopping the run. SF has yet to face a team with a top tier running game too. I agree with pretty much everything else you stated about the other games though:thumbs:

[Daws1089]

Does anyone have thoughts on the DEN/OAK game? I am leaning towards Denver given their surprising defensive success in only allowing 13 points this year. Granite (Flyers lol), it came against the Bungles and Browns. Raiders will need a bunch more out of russel to win this as I would peg Denver to force russel to beat them. Could be low scoring though.


Also, can anyone make a case for SEA? Haven't seen one person lean to that side despite the line being a shallow 2.5. Their home field advantage is huge, bears off of a big win? I am not crazy about Wallace at qb at all or the injuries on defense, but are we missing something?

[GMoney]

Does anyone have thoughts on the DEN/OAK game? I am leaning towards Denver given their surprising defensive success in only allowing 13 points this year. Granite (Flyers lol), it came against the Bungles and Browns. Raiders will need a bunch more out of russel to win this as I would peg Denver to force russel to beat them. Could be low scoring though

I think Denver is a strong play this week. I think too many people are making judgements based on reputation and not the product on the field. The "bungels" took Green Bay to the woodshead offensively last week. And Denver held their offense in serious check. Cleveland is just terrible. But I wouldn't say Oakland is much better, especially offensively.

Oakland does have a nice home field advantage, which is why they are favored. But I believe Denver is a better defensive team than KC and San Diego and have a hard time seeing JaMarcus do anything against this squad. McDaniels is a smart offensive coach and I think this one will be close for a couple quarters, but Denver should be able to get the road win.

[Underdog88]

Daws, I think that the Seahawks could be the play here. Looks like the D is still banged up, but Walter Jones should be back. I wouldn't play on Seattle unless he was, but really Seneca has plenty of game experience, so I would favor him over a banged up Hasselbeck. No way does Chicago deserve to be a road favorite, I think it's definitely perception based. Aside from beating the Colts week one last season, the Bears only other 2 road wins were vs the Rams & Lions. How can you lay chalk wiht a team that put up 15 pts and 17 pts in their first two games? Just doesn't make sense, but man re the Hawks a scary bet.


Some injury news

Bills- c Hangartner hasn't practiced, which is huge. Man this oline has potential but they need to stay healthy. TE Nelson has seen limited practice, but I have a hard time thinking he's going to be effective blocking with a sore shoulder. Aside from the fact that he's more offensive to begin with.

Colts- Brackett has a leg injury, and the Colts signed someone onto the defensive roster. I have to think this cmbined with the short prep week and a defense that spent 45 minutes on the field has to account for something. I think Hightower has a strong game, but really I think this is a game that Zona will be thirsty to get. Rarely do I go against Peyton, but I think everything looks to be setting up for a play on the home team here....

Chargers- c Nick Hartwick underwent ankle surgery, and will be replaced by Mruczkosski, who started last week. He was formerly a backup guard. Anyone follow the Chargers that could say a little more? Looks like a spot where the Dolphins could very well keep it close. The Chargers are a flashy team that rarely delivers, i think. Just seems like every time they should win, they don't.

Texans- lg Chester Pitts out, breaking his franchise record of starting every game. Pretty big news as the Jags front line could potentially get some added pressure on Shaub. Buyer beware with the Texans.......

[Details-Details]

Bears vs Seattle game looks oh so trappy!

But i cant get away from a few things

1) Seattle is the most injured team in the league. And although Walter Jones practiced today, it will be first first game of the year coming off a knee surgery, I think. I dont see him being the player he is normally against what looks like could be a GOOD bears defensive line. I dont think Tatupu will play either, Locklear is out, too many KEY INJURIES!

2) Seneca Wallace may be a capable back up, he may be better than Hasselback with a cracked rib. They still have no running game in Seattle, and although their WRs are good I dont see Wallace being able to get them the ball even against a below average bears pass D, who should be able to drop more guys into coverage. "The Bears are fifth in total defense (293.0) and have already recorded six sacks." (YAHOO)

3) Bears offense has some BIG PLAYS in them we havent seen yet. in week one we saw a couple deep throw from Cutler and he looked good connecting with Johnny Knox and with Hester on a TD pass. Bears establish the run early against a banged up Seattle D, and then stretch the field as the games goes on.

4) Huge swing game for the Bears, they know they have Detroit at home next week (should be an easy W) and then a bye week. 3-1 goin into the bye would be HUGE for this team and they all know it.

5) BEARS ARE PLAYING AND IM LAYING LESS THAN A FG. HELL YES! ILL TAKE EM! (HOMER)

Den vs Oakland

My initial lean was to Oakland then I gave this one some more thought.

Both defenses look to be capable this year. Oakland's offense is AWFUL. Denver's offense could be better than I initially thought. I always thought Orton had potential and he has some great weapons to throw to and although Marshall might get neutralized by Nmandi Asoumugha he has Royal and Scheffler to go to. Orton loves throwin to the TE.

I see Denver shutting down the Oakland offense. Jamarcus is a joke, this team would be better running the wildcat or the single wing. I just cant see them scoring more than 13 points and might even get shut out. I dont see Denver scoring a lot by any means but enough to win they might end up in the 20's after capitalizing on some Oakland turnovers.

My lean is Denver with a chance to go 3-0 (WOW!) and the UNDER

[Daws1089]

Locklear and totupu didnt practice today neither did griffith the fullback for seattle. I just dont think I can back them with all the holes on defense and the o-line. But I'm sure as heck not backing bears either. I'll leave this alone and look at other games.

[Underdog88]

reasons not to take the Giants....

1. Injuries- tons of starters out and banged up

2. They are off an emotional win, also off two divisional wins

3. TB is capable of moving the ball


Looks like a game that the Giants may just want to get over, really don't see why the Giants will be so up for this one.



reasons not to take GB.

1. Um, what have they done to be favored on the road? 2-6 last year

2. They are hurting at oline

3. The Bengals ran wild on them, and SJax should be able to generate offense.

4. IMO the Packers D is still adjusting, and that's not an adjective I would be happy using while backing a road fave.