**Week 4 discussion**

[daft_picks]

I didn't see a thread and thought I would just start something. As is the usual start, here are the homedogs:

Jags +3 vs Titans
KC +9 vs NYG
Browns +5.5 vs Bengals
Dolphins +2 vs Bills
Broncos +3 vs Cowboys

I'm already playing against the Browns, although the line seems so easy I must admit it could be a trap game. I however really do like the Dolphins and Broncos. Not sure the stat but don't first-starting QB's have a good track record ATS? Even though the Bills have a better record I think Miami might be the better team, and I think will be desperate to avoid an 0-4 start. I think the Cowboys are overrated and without a healthy Barber or Jones the load will be shoulder to Choice. I don't think he will be able to do enough to help Romo out. Denver's defense is looking good. Dallas D looks mostly ****ty, played better against Carolina but they suck. Like both teams plus the points.

Other dogs I am interested in include SD +6.5 vs Pitt (maybe even worth a ML play at +240?) and even Oakland +9 vs Houston. Bucs +7 vs Skins is interesting too, I think all of these teams might have trouble covering these big spreads. The skins are terrible, i know the bucs are too but at least they got beat by the Giants, the skins got beat by the LIONS.

Favorites I am looking at: NYG -9 vs KC (one homedog I have no problem going against I think) and Saints -7 vs Jets. I think the Jets will crash back to earth this week and the saints will cover the TD. If ever there was a team that could cover a decent sized spread it's the Saints. And it's still a pick the winner situation.

What are you guys thinking for this week? Have not really looked at many totals yes. Let's get some winners, want to hear other sides :thumbs:

[Daws1089]

tough crowd this week I guess or everyone must be busy...


I like Denver a lot. Aside from playing a good second half last week, what has dallas shown us to deserve road favorite status? I'm not convinced that they are fixed. Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin will continue to make penalties/mistakes as long as they are in the line up. Meanwhile, Denver's defense has been lights out and has shut down the run. Denver has a decent home field advtange too. I like the home dog to bite in this one. I have a lean to the over too. I'm not sure the Cowboys will be able to stop the Broncos all that much.


The other home dog I could see winning is Miami. Buffalo's offensive line is a mess. They lost Whitner and McKelvin in the secondary and Bryan Scott is very questionable with a high ankle sprain. Other than the experience angle, Henne is a huge upgrade over Pennington. His strong arm and youth will allow the Dolphins to take some shots down the field to Ginn and Bess. Oh and Buffalo gave up over 200 yards of rushing to the Saints last week, now they have to face ronnie brown and ricky williams who happen to love to run. So I'm not sure this is a good situation for buffalo.

I like over 44.5 in the BAL/NE game too. I think NE will spread things out and throw the ball near 40 times. You just can't run against the Ravens defense and expect to win many games. On the other hand, I think the Ravens will run all over NE and Flacco can then air it out if they get NE to commit to the run stop. Anyway, I don't think 45 pts is much at all to ask for. I like NE to win too. Brady returns to form.

[bluedevil12]

I'm not feeling Denver, New Orleans, or even Miami this week.

I think Denver is one of the worst 3-0 teams in recent history. Their win over Cincy was a fluke (otherwise they scored 6 points at home against Cincy's defense). Since then they have beaten Cleveland and Oakland decisively. They have not faced a playoff caliber team (or anywhere close to one for that matter), and I think Dallas is clearly the better team. Dallas' offense (even without Felix Jones) has too much firepower for the Broncos defense.

As far as Miami, I think they will be motivated and desperate to avoid the 0-4 start, but Henne has no game experience and that will hurt him. Buffalo is 1-2 and also will come out motivated. I think Trent Edwards experience will be the difference in this matchup. Owens and Evans could give the Dolphins' young corners trouble. I probably won't touch this game but if I did I would lean towards BUF.

I'm not saying I will be on the Jets, but a 7 point spread against a Jets team who has one of the best resumes in the league already. I think NO wins this game by 3-7 pts, but I definitely do not see value in this line.

[Daws1089]

is anybody taking JAX in the game against TEN? TEN is favored on the road after the **** start they've had? Granted, they played @ pitt, HOU, @ NYJ, and are now @ JAX. Rough start to the season with 3 road games and 1 home game, but the defense just is not the same. I think Stifler's Mom was right last year when he said TENN was a product of a lot of close games that could have gone either way. Their inability to throw the ball is catching up to them too in imo. Any thoughts on the game or the total?


Is anyone looking at KC? down to +8.5 now. Not sure why the line isn't 10 after the way KC has played this season. Bowe might be out again. With how well the Giants D has played, I don't think I could play KC. They didn't even try to throw the ball really against PHI. It was like oh we are down 20, lets run on first and 2nd down some more. Probably a no play unless something comes along to swing me either way.

[Underdog88]

Too busy to post much this week, but I'm done playing any team unless I think they win su. I wouldn't play on the Bills this week, but hit the over because I think both teams get to 17 minimum. The whole D is hurting, but if the offense produces they win imo. At the same time, I have to see what they do with Lynch back before I side with them. IMO Denver wins and the Chiefs cover. Flat spot for Giants, but I'm not gonna fade them.

[Reggie Hamlin]

I like the Giants on the road agian this week against KC . The Cheifs are at the bottom
of league in off and def and have given up an average of 28 pionts pr game .
The Giants will get Justin Tuck back for more plays this week and Bradshaw looks
like he will play also . The Giants O-line will dominate this game and Eli should be
able to shred the weak KC secondary . This one is over at half time .