Still going with the "motivation" theme for this week. Also look for some slightly inflated lines due to perception of certain teams. Think GB fit the mold well last week. The first two are my favorite, I also like the remaining three. Buf/Jax needs discussion
Tennessee @ Houston -4.5
Houston coming off a bye, still in the playoff picture. Tenn would probably need to win out to have a shot, probably not likely. Both teams have been playing well of late, Tenn winning 3 in a row and Hou coming off a tough loss at Indy. There's a natural dislike for Tenn amongst Houston fans due to the move several years ago, and Tenn is talked about as much on talk radio in Houston as the Texans are. I see a well rested team, in primetime, against a divisional rival, in a must-win game, giving only 4.5 to a team that has played better of late, albeit against teams that aren't very good. It's a pick the winner situation, and I think the Texans get it done here, mainly due to improved defensive play as of late.
Atlanta @ NY Giants -6.5
NYG burned me against SD in a similar spot, but I too like them coming off the bye at home against a Falcons team that might be slightly overrated. The NFC East is still available, and the Giants currently own the tiebreaker over Dallas, and if they beat them at home later in the year they will continue to own it. Atlanta's defense has been less than impressive and I think the Giants can put up some points against them, too many for Atlanta to run them down, especially if Turner doesn't play. No matter, I like NYG in the pick the winner spot.
Indianapolis @ Baltimore +1
Baltimore needs it alot more than Indy does, they are at home, and the defense has looked better in its last 3 games. Indy has squeaked out 3 in a row now, I just think they're run comes to an end this week. Indy is beat up defensively, I think both teams will move it, but imo Balt comes up with a few more stops defensively than Indy and moves to 6-4.
Philadelphia @ Chicago +3
Both teams need it in the worst way, line is a little inflated imo. Primetime game, Bears have been an absolute disaster the last five weeks, only win coming against an even bigger disaster in Cleveland. This line tells me that all the public focus is on the Bears defensive meltdown against Arizona and Cutler's meltdown against SF. The defense is beat up and mediocre, not as bad as their performance against Cinci and Arizona, but not good. Cutler is a pick machine, but I got to think he takes a little better care of the ball here, especially in the redzone. If Westbrook doesn't play this makes them more one dimensional imo, and what has Philly done in recent weeks to deserve a fg favorite on the road against a team that is 3-1 at home? The Bear players like Lovie for some reason, Tommie Harris has been quoted as saying he wants to turn it around for Lovie, and I don't think the Bears roll over at Soldier Field in front of a national audience AGAIN. I'm a Bear fan, I think they get it done Sunday night, and they perform just good enough to not make the playoffs this year, AGAIN.
San Diego @ Denver NO LINE
Provided it's pick the winner, I like SD. Denver's defense giving up 27 ppg in their last four, I like SD with or without Orton. Denver going for the sweep but moving in the wrong direction, SD playing well as of late. I'm sure the books are aware of this and SD might be the public play, but both teams need the win bad, and I'm going with the QB I can trust.
Buffalo +9 @ Jacksonville
Jax is 0-3 as a fave this year, Buffalo is 3-0 as a dog of 7 or more this year, 2-1 ATS with the lone loss coming to NE the first game of the year. Buf off the firing of Jauron, not sure how the players react. I'm not sold on this play, but it seems like Jax always lets up as a heavy fave, but I did want to start some discussion on this play, is their any value in Buffalo here???
Thoughts on these or any other games...?
Tennessee @ Houston -4.5
Houston coming off a bye, still in the playoff picture. Tenn would probably need to win out to have a shot, probably not likely. Both teams have been playing well of late, Tenn winning 3 in a row and Hou coming off a tough loss at Indy. There's a natural dislike for Tenn amongst Houston fans due to the move several years ago, and Tenn is talked about as much on talk radio in Houston as the Texans are. I see a well rested team, in primetime, against a divisional rival, in a must-win game, giving only 4.5 to a team that has played better of late, albeit against teams that aren't very good. It's a pick the winner situation, and I think the Texans get it done here, mainly due to improved defensive play as of late.
Atlanta @ NY Giants -6.5
NYG burned me against SD in a similar spot, but I too like them coming off the bye at home against a Falcons team that might be slightly overrated. The NFC East is still available, and the Giants currently own the tiebreaker over Dallas, and if they beat them at home later in the year they will continue to own it. Atlanta's defense has been less than impressive and I think the Giants can put up some points against them, too many for Atlanta to run them down, especially if Turner doesn't play. No matter, I like NYG in the pick the winner spot.
Indianapolis @ Baltimore +1
Baltimore needs it alot more than Indy does, they are at home, and the defense has looked better in its last 3 games. Indy has squeaked out 3 in a row now, I just think they're run comes to an end this week. Indy is beat up defensively, I think both teams will move it, but imo Balt comes up with a few more stops defensively than Indy and moves to 6-4.
Philadelphia @ Chicago +3
Both teams need it in the worst way, line is a little inflated imo. Primetime game, Bears have been an absolute disaster the last five weeks, only win coming against an even bigger disaster in Cleveland. This line tells me that all the public focus is on the Bears defensive meltdown against Arizona and Cutler's meltdown against SF. The defense is beat up and mediocre, not as bad as their performance against Cinci and Arizona, but not good. Cutler is a pick machine, but I got to think he takes a little better care of the ball here, especially in the redzone. If Westbrook doesn't play this makes them more one dimensional imo, and what has Philly done in recent weeks to deserve a fg favorite on the road against a team that is 3-1 at home? The Bear players like Lovie for some reason, Tommie Harris has been quoted as saying he wants to turn it around for Lovie, and I don't think the Bears roll over at Soldier Field in front of a national audience AGAIN. I'm a Bear fan, I think they get it done Sunday night, and they perform just good enough to not make the playoffs this year, AGAIN.
San Diego @ Denver NO LINE
Provided it's pick the winner, I like SD. Denver's defense giving up 27 ppg in their last four, I like SD with or without Orton. Denver going for the sweep but moving in the wrong direction, SD playing well as of late. I'm sure the books are aware of this and SD might be the public play, but both teams need the win bad, and I'm going with the QB I can trust.
Buffalo +9 @ Jacksonville
Jax is 0-3 as a fave this year, Buffalo is 3-0 as a dog of 7 or more this year, 2-1 ATS with the lone loss coming to NE the first game of the year. Buf off the firing of Jauron, not sure how the players react. I'm not sold on this play, but it seems like Jax always lets up as a heavy fave, but I did want to start some discussion on this play, is their any value in Buffalo here???
Thoughts on these or any other games...?
Comment