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Not alot of confidence right now after a stellar 5-15 showing in CFB yesterday. My first losing CFB Saturday since I can remember, so I had to make it a big one :beerbang:
NY Giants -7
At first glance at this opener, I thought it was ridiculous for NYG to be laying -6 to anyone with the way they have sucked. Then when it moved to -7, i figured the public is pounding NYG AGAIN and will lose AGAIN. Maybe so, but after further consideration, the public % on this game isn't really very overwhelming (in the neighborhood of 60% give or take a few points depending where you look), and I'm seeing many people thinking the same as I was, in disbelief that the Giants are actually giving a TD to anyone. I said it before and I'm still sticking by it today that I don't think Atlanta is all that thrilling, and I do believe that NYG will score today off the bye, as I think the best unit on the field for either team will be the NYG offense. So picking the winner and not getting lured in by the 7 points.
Buffalo Bills +9
It's normally $$$ to fade a home fave (especially one this large) the week after winning outright as a road dog. It doesn't happen often, and this is one of those chances. Tennessee fell into the same category last week after beating SF as a road dog and cashed with a late 4Q onslaught of points on the Bills, but in reality the Bills played that game within the number most of the way. Maybe the Bills will crumble in the 4Q again, but my money goes with that "system" which has proven a winner over the years and a team who can't possibly be any worse after firing Mr Rogers (PLEASE go after BILL COWHER to bring the Bills back to respectability!!!) over a Jacksonville team who should not be laying -9 to anyone imo.
Cleveland Browns +3 -105
I must be insane backing this team, but I actually see some value here. I mean it's not like Detroit is any better, and I am getting the best unit on the field (Browns defense) as a dog against an equally pathetic team. The kicker for me was that the idiotic Browns SHOULD (and i repeat, SHOULD) be able to score some this week against a Lions defense that is vastly improved, but I still don't think strikes fear in the hearts of anyone just yet.
Baltimore Raisins +2.5 +105
Because Lang is on Indy for 75 dimes. I really don't see any other reason other than a possible letdown spot for Indy and Baltimore needing this game badly, while Indy has much room to slack right now at 9-0 and far ahead of any potential competition for home field at this point. It also seems the books are taking a stance on Baltimore since they could have EASILY put this out at Baltimore +3 (probably even +3.5) and still taken lopsided public action on Indy. Slacking off is not really Manning's style though, and I probably would have passed on this game entirely otherwise, so if Lang's gonna nail his huge play, then good for him.
Tampon Bay Bucs +10.5
Ditto for the 'Aints. They really aren't blowing people out like the perception of them seems to be, and TB is getting better. Plus this is a terrible spot for them with an EASY look ahead spot here with NEW ENGLAND on deck @ home next week in prime time. I wouldn't be terribly shocked if they lose this game outright considering the horrible spot and the fact that they aren't exactly a model of ball security lately. Stranger things have happened, and Ican really see an ugly game here with the Saints winning late.
KC Chiefs +11.5 -105
Pittsburgh hasn't fared exceptionally well without Mr Head and Shoulders this year, and I think KC is getting better from what I've seen of them. No, they're still not very good, but I think they are moving in the right direction towards being competitive, and they have been a backdoor cover machine a few times already this season, while Pittsburgh has not really been blowing people out and has had some 2H meltdowns already this year (1st game vs CIN, vs SD to name two), so I'll take KC + what I think is way too many points here at home today.
Pittsburgh also has Baltimore on deck, although I doubt they completely overlook KC off an SU loss last week.
Seattle Seahawks +10.5
I can't remember the last time these guys cashed a ticket. Honestly. Probably the week they thrashed Jacksonville @ home. So why only open at +11 (and drop to +10.5 against approx 75% of the public bets) against the 8-1 Viqueens and everyone's hero Brett Favre? Oh yea, that's right, upon further review, they cashed at home vs Detroit on a last second pick 6. In any case, Minnesota has done nothing but cover all year for the most part, while Seattle has covered what, three times, all at home, over the RAMS, JAGUARS and LIONS. Safe to say the books could have opened this line a bit higher (as high as +14 imo) and still have gotten more than their share of public Minnesota action, so I'm gonna go against my better judgment that Seattle sucks ass and roll with what I feel is the books opinion that they are the side to play today.
Dallas Cowgirls -10.5
Basically I don't think the line matters in this game, even at double digits. Dallas is the far better team, and either ROMO is going to play like ****, throw picks, fumble, make stupid decisions, etc....and Washington will be in till the end and maybe win outright, or ROMO will play well and Dallas will thrash Washington by 20+. I am choosing to go with the latter since Dallas is off an ugly ass performance at GB in which they lost SU, while Washington is getting entirely too much love this week imo for beating an overrated Denver squad at home who lost their QB mid game.
St Louis Lambs +9
Lambs are improving, finally, and while the Cardinals keep winning and covering, look at their last 6 games since the bye. They jumped out to a 3 TD lead over Houston, before almost blowing it late. Then they blew out a QBless Seattle team. Next up, a road win over an NYG team who couldn't have possibly been playing any worse. Then an ugly home loss to Carolina, previously a winless team. Then a blowout win over a pathetic Bears in a nice motivational spot off a loss and vs team who can't stop anyone but the 49ers right now. Finally, a come back win (or Seattle implosion, however you look at it) last week, after trailing to the crappy Seahawks basically all game.
They have played a joke of a schedule since opening the season 1-2, playing either very poor teams or catching teams in favorable spots for them/bad spots for the opponent.
I'm not impressed enough to not go against them and their (apparently) suddenly resurgent rushing attack laying nearly double digits on the road, even vs the Lambs.
Oakland Raiderettes +9
For what it's worth, this is one of my fave plays on the board, despite it being on a ****ty team.
Cincinnati is good, I will give them that, but I don't think they're win consistently by double digits on the road good (at least not yet). Beat Pittsburgh for the 2nd time and take control of the division and your stock goes up, lose @ home to KC, and your stock goes down (if that is actually possible with Oakland), and I think a line that should be Cincy -4 or -4.5 is all of a sudden Cincy -9.
As soon as it seems something is so in the NFL, it's probably not, and Cincy probably comes back to earth here with either a close in or an outright loss.
New England Patriots -10.5
Wow. Revenge game vs the hated Jets and off an embarrassing loss to the Colts where not only should have NE won, but where the hoodie's playcalling was questioned. I don't think anyone could possibly mistake who is the better team here right now, and I don't expect NE to do anything but come out firing and not stop until either the Jets stop them or until the final gun sounds. Turnovers are usually key, and I'm looking towards Sanchez to make them, not Brady.
My opinion may sound a little public on this one, and maybe I'm gonna go down in flames with it, but until Sanchez can prove that he can play anywhere but sunny California, fading him is a no brainer to me against a pissed off Patriots team that will be looking to run this score up for more reasons than one.
3 units each
NY Giants -7
At first glance at this opener, I thought it was ridiculous for NYG to be laying -6 to anyone with the way they have sucked. Then when it moved to -7, i figured the public is pounding NYG AGAIN and will lose AGAIN. Maybe so, but after further consideration, the public % on this game isn't really very overwhelming (in the neighborhood of 60% give or take a few points depending where you look), and I'm seeing many people thinking the same as I was, in disbelief that the Giants are actually giving a TD to anyone. I said it before and I'm still sticking by it today that I don't think Atlanta is all that thrilling, and I do believe that NYG will score today off the bye, as I think the best unit on the field for either team will be the NYG offense. So picking the winner and not getting lured in by the 7 points.
Buffalo Bills +9
It's normally $$$ to fade a home fave (especially one this large) the week after winning outright as a road dog. It doesn't happen often, and this is one of those chances. Tennessee fell into the same category last week after beating SF as a road dog and cashed with a late 4Q onslaught of points on the Bills, but in reality the Bills played that game within the number most of the way. Maybe the Bills will crumble in the 4Q again, but my money goes with that "system" which has proven a winner over the years and a team who can't possibly be any worse after firing Mr Rogers (PLEASE go after BILL COWHER to bring the Bills back to respectability!!!) over a Jacksonville team who should not be laying -9 to anyone imo.
Cleveland Browns +3 -105
I must be insane backing this team, but I actually see some value here. I mean it's not like Detroit is any better, and I am getting the best unit on the field (Browns defense) as a dog against an equally pathetic team. The kicker for me was that the idiotic Browns SHOULD (and i repeat, SHOULD) be able to score some this week against a Lions defense that is vastly improved, but I still don't think strikes fear in the hearts of anyone just yet.
Baltimore Raisins +2.5 +105
Because Lang is on Indy for 75 dimes. I really don't see any other reason other than a possible letdown spot for Indy and Baltimore needing this game badly, while Indy has much room to slack right now at 9-0 and far ahead of any potential competition for home field at this point. It also seems the books are taking a stance on Baltimore since they could have EASILY put this out at Baltimore +3 (probably even +3.5) and still taken lopsided public action on Indy. Slacking off is not really Manning's style though, and I probably would have passed on this game entirely otherwise, so if Lang's gonna nail his huge play, then good for him.
Tampon Bay Bucs +10.5
Ditto for the 'Aints. They really aren't blowing people out like the perception of them seems to be, and TB is getting better. Plus this is a terrible spot for them with an EASY look ahead spot here with NEW ENGLAND on deck @ home next week in prime time. I wouldn't be terribly shocked if they lose this game outright considering the horrible spot and the fact that they aren't exactly a model of ball security lately. Stranger things have happened, and Ican really see an ugly game here with the Saints winning late.
KC Chiefs +11.5 -105
Pittsburgh hasn't fared exceptionally well without Mr Head and Shoulders this year, and I think KC is getting better from what I've seen of them. No, they're still not very good, but I think they are moving in the right direction towards being competitive, and they have been a backdoor cover machine a few times already this season, while Pittsburgh has not really been blowing people out and has had some 2H meltdowns already this year (1st game vs CIN, vs SD to name two), so I'll take KC + what I think is way too many points here at home today.
Pittsburgh also has Baltimore on deck, although I doubt they completely overlook KC off an SU loss last week.
Seattle Seahawks +10.5
I can't remember the last time these guys cashed a ticket. Honestly. Probably the week they thrashed Jacksonville @ home. So why only open at +11 (and drop to +10.5 against approx 75% of the public bets) against the 8-1 Viqueens and everyone's hero Brett Favre? Oh yea, that's right, upon further review, they cashed at home vs Detroit on a last second pick 6. In any case, Minnesota has done nothing but cover all year for the most part, while Seattle has covered what, three times, all at home, over the RAMS, JAGUARS and LIONS. Safe to say the books could have opened this line a bit higher (as high as +14 imo) and still have gotten more than their share of public Minnesota action, so I'm gonna go against my better judgment that Seattle sucks ass and roll with what I feel is the books opinion that they are the side to play today.
Dallas Cowgirls -10.5
Basically I don't think the line matters in this game, even at double digits. Dallas is the far better team, and either ROMO is going to play like ****, throw picks, fumble, make stupid decisions, etc....and Washington will be in till the end and maybe win outright, or ROMO will play well and Dallas will thrash Washington by 20+. I am choosing to go with the latter since Dallas is off an ugly ass performance at GB in which they lost SU, while Washington is getting entirely too much love this week imo for beating an overrated Denver squad at home who lost their QB mid game.
St Louis Lambs +9
Lambs are improving, finally, and while the Cardinals keep winning and covering, look at their last 6 games since the bye. They jumped out to a 3 TD lead over Houston, before almost blowing it late. Then they blew out a QBless Seattle team. Next up, a road win over an NYG team who couldn't have possibly been playing any worse. Then an ugly home loss to Carolina, previously a winless team. Then a blowout win over a pathetic Bears in a nice motivational spot off a loss and vs team who can't stop anyone but the 49ers right now. Finally, a come back win (or Seattle implosion, however you look at it) last week, after trailing to the crappy Seahawks basically all game.
They have played a joke of a schedule since opening the season 1-2, playing either very poor teams or catching teams in favorable spots for them/bad spots for the opponent.
I'm not impressed enough to not go against them and their (apparently) suddenly resurgent rushing attack laying nearly double digits on the road, even vs the Lambs.
Oakland Raiderettes +9
For what it's worth, this is one of my fave plays on the board, despite it being on a ****ty team.
Cincinnati is good, I will give them that, but I don't think they're win consistently by double digits on the road good (at least not yet). Beat Pittsburgh for the 2nd time and take control of the division and your stock goes up, lose @ home to KC, and your stock goes down (if that is actually possible with Oakland), and I think a line that should be Cincy -4 or -4.5 is all of a sudden Cincy -9.
As soon as it seems something is so in the NFL, it's probably not, and Cincy probably comes back to earth here with either a close in or an outright loss.
New England Patriots -10.5
Wow. Revenge game vs the hated Jets and off an embarrassing loss to the Colts where not only should have NE won, but where the hoodie's playcalling was questioned. I don't think anyone could possibly mistake who is the better team here right now, and I don't expect NE to do anything but come out firing and not stop until either the Jets stop them or until the final gun sounds. Turnovers are usually key, and I'm looking towards Sanchez to make them, not Brady.
My opinion may sound a little public on this one, and maybe I'm gonna go down in flames with it, but until Sanchez can prove that he can play anywhere but sunny California, fading him is a no brainer to me against a pissed off Patriots team that will be looking to run this score up for more reasons than one.
3 units each
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