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Week 15 Thurs

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  • Week 15 Thurs

    Jacksonville +4.5 -132

    3 units


    This line is available at Sportbet, for anyone wondering how I got such a wacky line.

    Now as for why, I believe that 4 is the biggest key number in football. Not 3, and sure as hell not 7. I could have gotten +3.5 -110, +4 -125, or +4.5 -132. Now for 7 more cents, I'll take that hook off the 4. I believe that +4.5 could be so valuable in this game if the Colts bring their game to win, that it is worth the extra 22 cents to get from +3.5 to +4.5, reason being that if the Colts require a late score to win, which certainly wouldn't be the first time this year, and they get it, also wouldn't be the first time, there is virtually no way they cover -4.5.

    If they are down 2, they probably settle for the winning FG, win by 1. If they are down 3 or more, and get the TD, they win by a max of 4.

    Therefore, weather it's a smart idea or not, I am paying a little more to protect myself against what many fear.....another great Manning comeback win.

    I just don't see this being a lopsided game.

    Now with that being said, and jackass Lang on Jacksonville, 41-3 Colts sounds about right :puke:

  • #2
    Also played Pittsburgh at -1 for 4 units, but wanted to get it out there now so there's no line controversy, as I'm thinking it might move up to as much as -3 till game time across the board, since some books are already -1.5 and -2.

    To keep a long story short for now, I think this is the perfect spot to jump on Pittsburgh, and the perfect team against which to do it. I think GB has overachieved, and their road wins are total ****.

    Will repost it on Sunday, possibly with some more reasoning if i get a chance, but Pittsburgh is without a doubt my favorite play of the week, so i figured i'd throw it out there.

    Comment


    • #3
      100% with you on Pitt, leaning Jax tonight as well. Good luck

      Comment


      • #4
        you're looking like a genius right about now. My lame brain went with the + odds at 3:thumbs:

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Stifler's Mom View Post
          Jacksonville +4.5 -132

          3 units




          Very nice Stif :beerbang:
          Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

          Comment


          • #6
            Very nice job!!:thumbs:

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            • #7
              great play on jax, stif, and excellent reasonning as to why you played it that way.
              mlb 2018 157-110 +42.74 2018
              nfl 2018 54-79-1 -21.4 units 2018
              mlb 2019 348-245-3 +70.2 units 2019
              nfl 2019 54-54 -21.2 units 2019
              mlb 2020 112-75-1 +33.35 units 2020
              nfl 2020 88-87-3 -8.4 units 2021
              mlb 2020 playoffs 30-17 +30.6 units 2020
              nfl playoffs 2020 11-11-1 +25.4 units 2021
              mlb 2021 271-226 +18.3 units 2021
              mlb 2022 240-239 -62.9 units as of 10-21-2022
              mlb 2023 122-103 -9.7 units 2023
              mlb 2024 15-11 +2.7 units as of 4-13-2024

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