**Week 7 Discussion**

[Billy The Kid]

Thought I would fire it up on a slow Wednesday afternoon

Home dogs

Miami +3

Carolina +3

Tennessee ?


Really think both home dogs are interesting plays this week (Think Tenn. will be as well but havn't seen a line yet). Both road teams, Pitt @ Mia, and SF@Car will be big public plays, currently over 90% on both.

Dolphins are in a possible let down spot after a big road win in Green Bay but I think they match up pretty well with the Steelers. Despite the solid numbers at games end, Big Ben did look a little rusty at timeslast week. Colt McCoy was also able to get some things going against the Steelers D without the presence of a running game. IMO the Dolphins should be able to incorporate the TE much like Cleveland did last week and also have the presence of a more balanced running attack. Leaning under right now

Carolina +3 - This game could be a SF blow out or a Panther straight up win IMO. Public back on the 49ers again this week after they beat the Raiders. 49ers have killed the public betting this year, losing when getting the publics money, then finding ways to cover (NO, Oak) when the public is on the other side. Not sure why this game would be any different and can't see how one can play the 49ers on the road right now. San Fran could have some momentum after last weeks win and has a real opportunity to climb their way back into the NFC West race with another victory and a pretty favorable schedule ahead (Den, Stl, TB, @Arz). Denver game being the toughest matchup out of the 4. Should make for an interesting play next week if the 49ers lose this week (would be on the 9ers most likely with them probably being home dogs and johnny public pounding the broncos). Right now leaning Panthers and the points. Moore back under center and S. Smith back this week will force the 49ers to respect the passing game that has been non existant.

TB -2.5 - Watching the Rams beat the Chargers last week and the Saints blow out the Bucs in Tampa had me thinking that TB would be my favorite play of week 7. Rams due for a let down with TB in a bounce back spot. The opening line has me second guessing as IMO the line is looking for TB money and is currently getting it at around 70%. TB has been surprising and been able to beat bad teams without much of a running game. Wins against (Clev, Car, Cin). Rams on the other hand have beaten some better competition and have the more balanced offensive attack. Going to look into this one more and see how the line moves until sunday, but the Bucs arn't looking as good as I had thought.

other potential plays

Seattle -5.5

Patriots +3

Packers -3

[drew4008]

Posted this in the other thread but I'll put it here since this looks to become the more popular one.

I really like playing the Chiefs-Jags game. The Jags are one of the worst teams in the league, in my opinion, plus they have to go INTO Arrowhead, where KC is best. Not to mention the Jags bread & butter (Drew) is the Chiefs strong-spot defensively (5th in the league in run defense). All this spells an easy Chiefs victory if you ask me. I'm also going to double dip on this one and take the under (42.5 is what I'm seeing in front of me right now). I'm guessing something like a 24-13 victory.. but any way I look at it, I don't see how these two combine for 43 or more.

Other games that look interesting (at first glance) are Atlanta -3.5 over Cincinnati and NE +3 at San Diego. Cincinnati has really fallen off lately, and I don't think even a bye will really help them on the road against an Atlanta team coming off a pretty bad loss. Pats struggles on the road plus San Diego's dominance at home are leading to this line, but I'm not buying it. San Diego hasn't faced a great (or even good) quarterback yet and they're feeling the injury bug too (Gates and Floyd are questionable). Pats need to keep up with the Jets and I see them winning straight up.

[hodown]

Absolutely no way Tenn gets home dawged this week. I actually see them sitting at -3, about where they should be. I am surprised about the TB line as well, thought that'd be closer to 4 or 5, something smells there.

This NFL season seems less to do about how good a team is and more to do with playing spots. How else can one describe Jax taking out Indy at home and turn around and get raped at home by Tenn two weeks later. Or Houston handling Indy at home and then getting pounded at home by the Giants, who got pounded on the road at Indy. Or TB going to Cincinnati and winning, but also getting blown out at home by Pitt and NO. Cinci loses at home to TB but beats Baltimore. GB is everyone's darlings at the start of the season, the Vikes were small homefaves to a 1-3 team last week, and now the Vikes are 3 at GB with heavy juice??? Or SD, who sucks balls on the road this year, comes in at -8.5 at StL who's looked great at home, but just come off a 40 point blowout on the road to a winless team???

Crazy season so far, and the better team certainly does not, and is not always winning. Spots seem to be more important than ever, such as byes or coming off of ugly losses, and that's what I'm going to try and focus on here for the next few weeks

[drew4008]

I'm actually not surprised by the low line for Tampa Bay. I think that on a neutral field, the Rams take this game (just beat the #1 offense and #1 defense in the league with San Diego). Whether they can overcome their road woes is another story (losses at Oakland and at Detroit).

[Billy The Kid]

Really think the Panthers are the play in their game this week. Can't see any reason to back the 49ers on the raod even against a winless team. Carolina off a bye with Moore back under center gives them a much better chance to win than Claussen at this point. Home dogs have been great plays this year and IMO this one sets up perfectly for a Carolina SU win with the public back on the SF bandwagon. 49ers were in a good spot last week against a team in a let down and were able to capitalize with A. Smith only completing half of his attempts. Both teams will relay on their run first offenses witch makes the under look pretty good as well. In the end though I just feel the Panthers are in the better position to pick up their first win of the year and will gladly take the +3.

[Daws1089]

agree with Billy on CAR. SF beats the freaking Raiders off their epic win against SD on the road and all of a sudden the 9ers issues are fixed and they are ready to be a road fave? No way. Carolina won't lose every game and matt moore is definitely more capable than claussen. Like CAR needed Claussen to play to figure that out lol. Steve Smith has practiced this week too which is a plus for backing them. Alex Smith is leading SF nowhere.

[Daws1089]

speaking of good spots, I could see this week being a good spot for SD. They come home off of an embarrassing to the lowly rams to get the Pat who are off a big OT win over Balt. NE has the defense that SD can exploit. Even with gates and floyd hurt I still think they can beat it.

[Reggie Hamlin]

What do you guys think about the Minny Green Bay game I like the vikes plus the points the pack is just hurt I think the whole team is questionable for Sunday :laughing:
Interested to hear some other views

[Stifler's Mom]

Wow, dead week for the discussion thread. A little time this morning, so here goes my 2 cents....

Not many home dogs this week. Looks like MIA +3 and CAR +3.

Starting with them, SF shouldn't be a road fave, ever, especially to a team off a bye week. IMO that line is built on the season long perception so far that SF is "going to" be good....at some point, and now they got it rolling by beating the ruff tuff Raiders at home last week. Sitting around waiting for a SF team who has shown nothing much other than the ability to turn the ball over to be good with a guy at QB who has been a miserable failure since entering the league doesn't sound like a profitable plan. Moore back at QB for CAR which is a huge improvement imo over Jimmy "I'll never be even a decent NFL QB" Claussen, and Smith got some practice in this week to from what I understand. Tough to say an 0-5 team should be favored, but this is probably the wrong fave here....

The PIT passing offense continued to look poor last week even with Ben back. He looked out of sync most of the game, and they were lucky to escape with the SU win against CLE let alone a cover, as some late scores off CLE mistakes made the final score misleading. The hype of PIT having won w/o BEN, and now the thinking that all of a sudden PIT is a much better team with him, has them as a road fave vs a pretty solid MIA team....but I'm not even convinced PIT is a better team with BEN at QB right now, at least not until he gets more reps. I think MIA takes this one, but am concerned about Henne vs the PIT defense. Certainly wouldn't call either side a "top play" in this game, but do lean towards MIA here as a home dog in a spot where I think they have a competitive rushing attack that could be at least somewhat effective and could win the turnover battle IF Henne doesn't **** himself cause Ben will probably press and look to make the big play like always, which he looks great when he gets done, but I just don't think he's ready to do that yet here and he should force himself into some mistakes if the MIA defense is able to get any pressure on him at all.

SD wins at home and loses on the road. Nothing new. And outside of games @ Buffalo, and last time they played @ MIA, NE hasn't exactly been much of a road warrior the last few seasons. SD should be able to exploit some weaknesses in the NE secondary here and get the win. IMHO they'd be favored by more IF they weren't off 2 road losses to "crap" teams STL and OAK, and there weren't so many in love with NE as if it's still a couple of seasons ago again now that they've covered 2 straight. Funny thing here is that the public was all over SD in both of those losses, and mostly against NE in those 2 wins (probably closer to split on MNF @ MIA, but many more were on BALT last week than were on NE), and now the shoe is on the other foot with the public saying **** the ****ty Chargers and backing the Pats to the tune of probably 85%. Joe Public has been getting roasted like this all season jumping on and off ship on teams due to 1 or 2 good or bad games. Will it continue here?

JAX starts the back-up QB, weather it's Edwards or Bouman. Backing a team whose back-up QB is making his first start for them has been $$ again this year. CLE lost last week ATS with McCoy but probably really should have covered the big number, and CAR lost with blow hard Claussen making his first start vs the Bungles a few weeks back. Other than that, it's been perfect this year. Besides, KC has NO BUSINESS being a -9.5 fave over ANYONE, do they?

TEN is getting hot, while imo the Eagles are getting by. PHI needed a 5-0 turnover advantage 2 weeks ago to beat SF by 3, and was lucky to catch a mediocre ATL team at home last week on their second straight roadie and jump out on them early and coast to victory. The 3rd ranked TEN rushing attack vs the Eagles 22nd ranked rushing attack is a non favorable match-up for PHI, and at the same time, I don't think PHI will be able to exploit the weakness of TEN, which is their pass D, with Kolb at QB and Jackson not playing. Fisher doesn't seem to ever lose to the NFC, and I don't really see any reasons standing out to say it's gonna happen here. I think Kolb turns it over a couple times this afternoon, and TEN wins by about 10-14. Does the back-up QB thing apply here as well if Collins gets the start? I know he's seen a bunch of playing time this year, but not sure if he's actually gotten a start??? I'm thinking he hasn't, but not totally sure....

CHI off a BAD BAD home loss to horrible SEA and will imo bounce back in a big way against smoke and mirrors Washington imo, who has had the benefit of playing much of their early season schedule at home. In their one road game outside the division, they got spanked by the RAMS. This should be one of those games where Cutler rights the ship and the Bears O looks decent, and I don't really think Washington will muster any late and/or back door wins/covers on the road this year like they've shown the ability to do at home.

Which brings me to SEA....who will probably fall flat on their faces this week after that big road win. Arizona +7 off a bye (as long as ANDERSON isn't at QB) looks real good. I still see people saying "SEA is tough at home". Not looking it up, but from memory, Qwest field
hasn't exactly been striking fear in the hearts of the opposition the last few years. Teams who win outright as a road dog and then are a home favorite in their next game normally don't fare very well, and I would assume it's even stronger when you have a dung team like SEA in that spot.

ATL looks too easy. CIN stinks, and should lose every single road game this year against any teams not named the Panthers. This low line scares me though, but with ATL off a loss and really not having done much all season outside of beating NO a few weeks back, combined with Joe Public continuing to be led on by the hope for this supposedly high flying Bungles offense to break out, I guess it's understandable, and it is hooked at -3.5 which is always a good sign for backing the fave. I'm not sold by any means on ATL this season, but there's no way on earth I'd put money on the Bungles to win SU on the road, off a bye or not, and taking them +3.5 looking for a FG win by ATL is idiotic, so it would be ATL or no play for me.

The good old BILLS seem to have no chance this week against the Raging Raisins of Baltimore on paper, although with a 14 pt spread (at some places) and an obvious letdown spot here for BALT after playing all "good" or divisional teams so far this year, and off a deflating OT loss at NE last week, and now facing the NFL doormat, I suppose a surprising cover that would **** up a lot of people's parlays isn't totally out of the question. BALT could quite possibly wake up in the 3rd qtr or so realizing they're in a dogfight this afternoon. My main concern here would be the Bills inability to stop anyone from running all over them, and if that continues today, they won't cover. If I were to play the Bills, I'd probably opt for 1H as like I said, I see some hangover the BALT here combined with the Bills normally starting games decent and them being off a bye which should hopefully give them the stamina and game plan to be competitive for at least a while, although I see no realistic way they win outright, and even if they are competitive, a 4Q Bills collapse where BALT punches it in late and covers wouldn't surprise me in the least.

N.O. showed signs of life last week and I'd want no part of CLE this week walking into the dome off a tough fought divisional loss where they fought harder than the final would indicate. The N.O. defense gets no credit but is actually a decent unit who creates it's fair share of turnovers, something I believe the Browns are going to be prone to this week on the road, in a loud dome situation, no matter which of the three stooges plays at QB for the Browns. I read Wallace is out, McCoy, although I do believe he has the potential to be a winner eventually, should struggle in a spot like this, and Delhomme plain sucks ass. I think they lose by about 24-28 here.

TB off a disgusting (and very predictable) home blowout at the hands of NO, now doesn't get much love as a small fave, even against the Lambs, who the public is riding high with off their home upset of SD. The same Lambs that were blown out 44-6 or something like that by THE LIONS the week before on the road. Until the Lambs prove they can win a road game, laying these small home chalks against them off home wins is the way to go imho. A couple weeks ago I remember alot of people saying "No way the Lions beat the Rams by more than 3, this is at worst a push", lol, and I've seen more of that this week :ohman:

One time contender GB has failed to cover 4 straight and has lost 3 of 4 outright, and it seems to be many people are playing against them again this week because of their many injuries. I think it's safe to say stock in GB couldn't get any lower. MIN on the other hand just picked up Moss and a home win over the big bad 1-4 Cowgirls where the books showed the utmost confidence in them, installing them as a whole -1.5 fave. The books aren't as sold as the public on 56 year old Favre again this week, making them a +3 dog despite the public giving them a pretty strong backing against the MASH unit Packers, and neither am I. I think this is the prime spot to jump on GB, especially once it falls to -2.5 or lower as Joe Pub piles on the Viqueens more and more as the day goes on.

[Reggie Hamlin]

Stiff I hear what your saying on the Pack I just think Percy Harvin is going to have
a huge day and it doesn't look like the Packers can stop the run Miami got 150 against
them last week The one thing that concerns me are the vikes trouble on third down
Thanks for posting like reading your write ups . :beerbang:

[TheBeholdah]

whats crackalackalackin boys, i got some action today. took the titans, always undervalued. stiff you sound on point with that write up. bucs, bears, cards all seem like right siders.

[TheBeholdah]

i take the titans and then i see this hahaha hope it doesnt matter

Kerry Collins will start Sunday with a torn tendon at the top of middle finger on his throwing hand, according to FoxSports.com's Jay Glazer.

[COACH DITKA]

Great analysis as always Stif - thanks for your thoughts! :thumbs: