***Week 9 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

Some good matchups this week.



Homedogs

Texans+3 vs SD- Chargers are a a good 2ndh team and desperately need this win going into the bye week. The Texans defense is gar-batz, and I think Rivers will throw all over them. Already got down on the over 50.5 here as I think both teams getting to 24+ is likely. Not really interested in fading the Chargers here, and I'm thinking about a SD play as well.


Bills+2.5 vs Bears can't really call it a home game, and I'm not ready to talk about the Bills yet after letting me down on the ML last week. Bad teams find ways to lose.


Lions+4 vs Jets I'm sure there will be a ton of public love for the Jets here, but one could make a case for the Lions for sure. 2-1 at home with sole loss being a 35-32 barn burner vs Philly. The Jets put up a clunker off the bye, and now have to go play a hungry Lions team who is playing good football. Jets have the advantage in the run game, as Detroit is allowing 4.9 ypc. Detroit has the advantage IMO in the passing game....


Panthers+6.5 vs Saints- Panthers nearly beat the Saints away, but the Saints look as if they may be righting the ship defensively. Also in that game the Saints had 2 turnovers and were 1-5 in the redzone. Will have to look a little deeper into this one.


Browns+4.5 vs Patriots- saw some talk in another thread about this one, this line stinks. I had made up my mind to fade the Patriots every road game this season, and may still do it. Definitely going to be on the Steelers next week. Browns could very well be the correct side here, but I don't know if I like it enough to get involved as a full play. The more I think about it the more I like the under here....


Seahawks+6.5 vs Giants- now we are talking. Hawks are a good home team to play on IMO, and the Giants are getting too much respect from linesmakers imo. Had a rant before the NYG/Boys game about how I felt the Giants were overrated, and I still do believe that. It just so happens the Cowboys are that much worse than I thought. Seahawks off a loss where they were buried now back home. I think Matt plays and if he does, I may be going in on the Hawks ML.


Bengals+4.5 vs Steelers- I don't know what to expect here.

[bigbag12]

Since I'm a dumbass and cant count weeks, I'll copy paste from the week 8 thread I made lol.

Howdy all!

Didn't see a thread so figured I would start one.

The WTF line of the week to me is NE -5 at Clev. Seems to scream take NE so NFL logic suggest the smart play is Clev +5, but I have a hard time pulling trigger with a rookie QB starting but Hillis a very good back. Will watch this closely.

Another WTF line is Indy +3. There is a thread on this and I agree with alot said in there but this again seems to easy at +3....

Buff +3. Lets be real here. Buff will not go winless and at 0-7 it getting down to nut cutting time. They will play tooth and nail to get their 1st win. Will it be this weekend against CHI??Biggest concern here is CHI off the Bye....

J-E-T-S -4. I think this is a good spot play for the J-E-T-S after getting there ass handed to them at home last weekend and couple that with Det F'ing up Wash I like the J-E-T-S to bounce back this weekend.

Thoughts on these or others gentlemen??

[Gavin]

Man I'm right there with you I love the jets play also:beer2:

Colts look way too good so it's got me a little concerned

[Billy The Kid]

Bills +2.5/+3(-115) - Most likely will be on the Bills this week looking to pick up their first win. Agree with your thoughts Udog on how bad teams find ways to lose, but lets not put the Bears in a good team category. They too are a bad team and also find ways to consistantly shoot themselves in the foot.

Eagles -3 - Ya I agree giving Peyton points at any time can be a scary situation but IMO the Eagles are just as good as the Colts. Indy still can't stop the run and was able to beat the Texans rather easily because they jumped out to a quick lead and were able to use their great pass rush against Schaub and his cement feet. Now think about that pass rush against Vick this week. Freeney and Mathis get to far up field MV is gone. Really think this is a difficult matchup for the Colts who have continued to struggle against teams that can run the football. Combine it with Philly off a bye, a healthy Vick/DeSean, and Indy short week, public pounding the Colts, and it's looking like a pretty solid Philly play

[blitzkrieg555]

Jets -4 looks good to me. Detroit is picking up steam but I don't think their D is good enough to stop them. NY's running game couldn't do crap last week but against the Lions they should fare better. Im sure their pissed about last weeks home loss and want to get back on track this week.

Packers- 8... I like this one a lot. Dallas always sucks at Lambeau and I don't see them bucking that trend anytime soon. Green Bay has stepped up without a lot of key players. Their running game isn't great but last week it was adequate. I can't say blow out for sure but two touchdowns shouldn't be a problem.

[Reggie Hamlin]

Hey Udogg just saw Charlie Whitehurst is starting for the hawks this week

[Daws1089]

playing on a team who is starting the backup qb for the first time of the season has been pretty profitable this season. so looks like seahags are still worth a shot.

[Billy The Kid]

Ravens -5 Very strong lean on the Ravens this week. Off their bye the last two years they have out scored their opponets 58-17 and I think they are due for a big bounce back after almost getting caught against the Bills two weeks ago in a big hangover spot. Dolphins havn't lost on the road but their victories have come against some very beatable opponents (over rated Minny/ caught Green Bay at the right time with a ton of injuries, and a terrible Bengals team) Phins also on second of B2B road games after winning straight up as a road dog last week. Dolphins success depends on running the football, something the Ravens are historically great at stopping. Although ranked in the middle of the pack against the run this season, I like the defense having two weeks to prepare for the Ronnie/Ricky combo. Dolphins have also been struggling in the red zone last few weeks and things won't get any easier against the Ravens. Field goals just arn't going to cut it against a strong Ravens team looking to keep pace with the Steelers.

Saints/Panthers Under 41 Public seems to be back on the Saints ban wagon after their victory over Pitt last week in a must win/big bounce back after getting stomped on by the Browns at home week 7. Saints are still very one dimensional and the Panthers defense is the one thing they really have going for them. Both defenses have been steady this year (Saints 3rd fewest yds allowed, Panters 4th fewest) and In order for this one to go over IMO the Saints will need to put up 25+ points, somthing they have done only 2x this year.

Chargers -3/over 51 - Two teams going in totally different directions right now. Even with all the offensive injuries, Phillip Rivers still tearing it up and now faces the Houston pass d that is last in the league. This is the time of year the Chargers generally get in a groove and what better way to do it than against the Texans that have appeared to blow their load to early this season. Houston is in a bounce back at home against SD who do struggle at times on the road but I don't think they are the play with their defensive struggles and a pretty stought SD defense. Total could def. soar over and may be the better play as IMO SD should be able to put up 30+.

[Reggie Hamlin]

The Hags have been very good inside the redzone defensively If they get some turnovers and the Giants have been prone to turning it over They have a shot

[Golden]

Ravens -5 Very strong lean on the Ravens this week. Off their bye the last two years they have out scored their opponets 58-17 and I think they are due for a big bounce back after almost getting caught against the Bills two weeks ago in a big hangover spot. Dolphins havn't lost on the road but their victories have come against some very beatable opponents (over rated Minny/ caught Green Bay at the right time with a ton of injuries, and a terrible Bengals team) Phins also on second of B2B road games after winning straight up as a road dog last week. Dolphins success depends on running the football, something the Ravens are historically great at stopping. Although ranked in the middle of the pack against the run this season, I like the defense having two weeks to prepare for the Ronnie/Ricky combo. Dolphins have also been struggling in the red zone last few weeks and things won't get any easier against the Ravens. Field goals just arn't going to cut it against a strong Ravens team looking to keep pace with the Steelers.

Saints/Panthers Under 41 Public seems to be back on the Saints ban wagon after their victory over Pitt last week in a must win/big bounce back after getting stomped on by the Browns at home week 7. Saints are still very one dimensional and the Panthers defense is the one thing they really have going for them. Both defenses have been steady this year (Saints 3rd fewest yds allowed, Panters 4th fewest) and In order for this one to go over IMO the Saints will need to put up 25+ points, somthing they have done only 2x this year.

Chargers -3/over 51 - Two teams going in totally different directions right now. Even with all the offensive injuries, Phillip Rivers still tearing it up and now faces the Houston pass d that is last in the league. This is the time of year the Chargers generally get in a groove and what better way to do it than against the Texans that have appeared to blow their load to early this season. Houston is in a bounce back at home against SD who do struggle at times on the road but I don't think they are the play with their defensive struggles and a pretty stought SD defense. Total could def. soar over and may be the better play as IMO SD should be able to put up 30+.

I like that ravens pick also. they should atleast win by a TD. Baltimore defense has not been themselves as of late and they will regain their form starting sunday. GL! :thumbs:

[recovering77]

Some good matchups this week.

Texans+3 vs SD- Chargers are a a good 2ndh team and desperately need this win going into the bye week. The Texans defense is gar-batz, and I think Rivers will throw all over them. Already got down on the over 50.5 here as I think both teams getting to 24+ is likely. Not really interested in fading the Chargers here, and I'm thinking about a SD play as well.

Absolutely love the chargers in this matchup. Chargers 0-4 on the road, and Gates is listed as doubtful? I have found a new capping tool to analyze, futures bets.

On another site I saw Atlanta OVER 9.5 wins with -130 juice on it. That's how I knew they would be good this year, and the division jinx as well.

Well if you look at current NFL futures for the Texans, books are paying 55-1 on Houston to win the super bowl. That's unbelievable value for a team that can actually do it.

If Indy wins, Houston will be 2 games behind, and pretty much can say goodbye to the division with Tenn playing good football this year.

I realize Indy is an underdog this week, but I am not really leaning Philly here, even if the public is hammering Indy. Indy is beaten up. Missing Bob Sanders, Joseph Addai, Mike Hart, Dallas Clark, and possibly Austin Collie again. Sooner or later it may catch up to them, but not sure if it's this week. Plus philly off a bye, with a healed Michael Vick and a healing Lashaan Mccoy.

Go Chargers Go!