Week 15 Discussion Thread

[Daws1089]

Our forum is lacking this season and it's reflecting in mine and I'm sure a bunch of others plays this year. I've got a couple thoughts on some games this week so I want to get this started again rolling into the playoffs.


Seahawks +6 at home vs ATL? not very interested in that. Seahags are playing for the division, but its hard season the Falcons having a hiccup here. Seams like it should be more pts.


Jags +5 @ IND. I don't know who is comfortable laying any ptsd with Indy these days especially after thursday nights debacle. They just cant stop anyone. Undersized LBs, bad Corners is a bad mixture with Jags run game. I like them catching 5 here. I guess the rationale for betting Indy here would be, division is on the line, jags defense isn't that great, no pass rush. I don't see any other reasons to be on Indy. Any thoughts?

Bills/Dolphins Under 41

Dolphins have zero offense. Just nothing to offer at all and this has gone on for a few weeks now. Bills won't have an easy time either as dolphins D can be stingy. Not sure I can see both of these teams in the 20's.
let's try to cover all games.

[Stifler's Mom]

3rd straight roadie for Atlanta = a bad spot (see the Lambs this week). The entire world will be on them and I'm guessing +7 will be readily available for the Seachickens by the end of the week if it isn't already. Granted it's not the same 2 teams (stl/no) but the spot remains the same, and dogs of +7 have been covering almost every time this season.

Doesn't upset me that Atlanta is off 2 straight divisional road games either, has the Aints on deck, and has played a bunch of close ones this year.

Joe Public should eat ass this week with Atlanta, but yeah, it is the Seachickens, lol

[Underdog88]

Totally agree that it's a bad spot situationally for the Falcons. Last week I thought either ATL or GB was losing straight up (thought one or both would be the teaser buster of the week). Well GB flopped, and ATL flourished. I just don't like the fact that backing the dog here means backing a team that allows 120 a game on the ground, is 30th in passing yards, and can't run to save their lives. That being said, I think ATL can be passed on... maybe Mike Williams flips out. I'll give Seattle credit for beating the Chargers at home and Chicago on the road....but the other wins were far from impressive.

[Underdog88]

Jags +5 @ IND. I don't know who is comfortable laying any ptsd with Indy these days especially after thursday nights debacle. They just cant stop anyone. Undersized LBs, bad Corners is a bad mixture with Jags run game. I like them catching 5 here. I guess the rationale for betting Indy here would be, division is on the line, jags defense isn't that great, no pass rush. I don't see any other reasons to be on Indy. Any thoughts?
.

I think the Jaguars are SEVERELY overrated. The Colts are the only team with a winning record that Jax has beat. The other 7 wins are vs opponents with a combined 31-60 record. Biggest reasons to bet Indy for me would be they have revenge and lost the last home game. Peyton will be able to throw all over Jax, last time @Jax he threw for 340+. I may be playing a Peyton yds passing over prop. I don't think the Jaguars win so I can't play them as a side, but their run game does scare me. Now Jennings is just as big a threat as Jones Drew....

[Underdog88]

Haven't looked at lines/totals yet, but I do like a couple teams to win


Browns- They are a much better team than the Bengals, who are just tanking. Cincy can't stop the run (Hillis) and can't run the ball. I'll be checking the weather, but regardless of the elements I like the Browns to win this game.


Oakland- Off a terrible loss in Jax, where they were outscored 31-14 in the 2ndh and allowed 234 on the ground. Denver has revenge but they can't stop the run at all, and Oakland has a decent pass D. Denver would have to commit to running the ball (which they have been spotty doing). In the end I don't trust the Broncos to get a road win here....


Giants- Philly has looked unstoppable offensively, but the Giants can slow the run attack, and got to Vick quite a bit in the first meeting. Eli played like absolute dog shyte last time they played each other, and the Giants still could have won. Giants running game looks revitalized with Jacobs getting more touches... Divisional game where the home team has revenge, I will be on the Giants to win.

[Underdog88]

Someone tell me how Tavaris Jackson survives this week against the Bears defense. Chicago off a blowout loss will surely be out for blood......

[Stifler's Mom]

Jackson is even worse than I remembered, lol

[Underdog88]

Jackson is even worse than I remembered, lol

oh yeah. Also rumore floating around that the game will be played at TCF Bank stadium. Outdoors. :sm:

[Daws1089]

How do you guys feel about laying 8 or9 pts with SD? that is not something I am interested in doing. Despite every single talking head who just puts the blanket statement out there every year that SD is unstoppable in December I don't think they are that great at all. I still don't see them winning the division so they likely won't make the playoffs. Not sure why SF put Alex Smith back at qb but it worked. No Gates the rest of the way it looks like for SD. This is just way too many pts for me to feel comfortable laying with these clowns.

[Badger]

Eli played like absolute dog shyte last time

When doesn't he play like dog ****? If his name wasn't Manning would he still be a starter in this league? One four game stretch and a lucky catch in the Super Bowl and now he's a world beater. Most overrated player in the NFL ... ever! IMO

[Kevin]

Offensive line problems for the Jets. Damien Woody gone, his replacement gave up 3 sacks.

Pittsburgh is going to be in the backfield all day long. Horrible matchup for NYJ. I think Pitt is a play at -6.5 or lower.

[Daws1089]

I want to agree Kevin, believe me, but I also don't want to overreact to the jets last two games against NE and MIA. Stinkchez has looked awful and continually plays bad in cold weather it seems. Jets do appear to be coming back down to earth after getting very lucky earlier in the year against the likes of DEN, HOU, CLE etc. But it's not like PItt is a world beater either. Am I wrong? They whooped on the terrible bengals, but didn't even score an offensive td. Only scored 1 td against the ravens which was given to them from a big defensive play. The -6 or -6.5 seems light to me and I don't wanna jump on the steeler train at the wrong time. Just my take, but I'll probably stay away.

[Daws1089]

For those that follow:

The spread has mattered in 37 of 208 games this year which is 18%. This is much higher than in years past.


I think favs covered in 12 of the 16 games last week too.

[Polar Ice]

I tend to agree with Daws on the NYJ/Pitt game. If these teams were stocks, you'd be buying Pitt high and selling NYJ low IMO. I dont have a play on the game yet, just my two cents.

[hodown]

Lions @ bucs -6
skins @ cowboys -6
Saints +1 @ ravens

Bucs and cowboys both at home against inferior teams in pick the winner situations. Skins have to give up at some point, seems to be alot of drama surrounding them with haynesworth. Lions offense is dead with Stanton at the controls and bucs still have something to play for. Last game I think saints are the better team, they're healthy, and the line is not taking a stand on Balt at home. Regarding Pitt nyj, don't see how anyone can side with the jets. They're one dimensional and that's that. Pitts def playing better and at home. Regarding sea atl, the spot is great for sea but I've played them as homedogs twice and kc and nyg dropped bombs on them. I've also been fading atl recently as road faves and that failed miserably. I'm getting tired of guessing when atl loses as a road fave and sea wins as a homedog.