***Week 17 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

OK with the holidays passing and things slowing down a bit I can commit a little more to discussion. Maybe we can get things fired up going into the playoffs. Tons of meaningful games as opposed to most years, though I really don't know every scenario yet. What I do know is some dogs will cash on the ml, and I intent to find those dogs:beer2:

[Underdog88]

A couple lines have already come out, so some quick thoughts from me


Indy-9 vs Titans/ 48

Initial thought is this is line is inflated for a few reasons.... Indy needs to win to get in, Titans off a blowout road loss. I think Indy wins this game, but I won't lay 9 pts in a game that could very well be decided by less than a touch. I will be looking into the Colts in a teaser for sure. I think if the Titans do cover it goes over, because Peyton is going to make that secondary look silly imo.


Bengals+10- I am not sold on the Ravens. Said it last week, the Bengals perform as dogs, and there is definitely some motivation here for Cincy. At the same time the Ravens could turn up another solid defensive showing and win by 10+, but I'm considering the Bengals here. ML is +385, juicy.

Broncos+3.5/ +160 vs Chargers- I have to consider it. Are the Chargers going to be up for this game? It came out that the big wigs have already said Norv is staying.... very shocking to me. Tebow is making plays, despite his noodle arm, I would think he is going to put everything he has into this game as it could very well decide what direction this team goes in next season. In the end it's a 2-5 road team that is out of contention laying divisional road chalk. As I typed that I made my mind up, Broncos for me.

[Reggie Hamlin]

Udog I looked at that Denver line when it came out really like Denver getting points at
home Tebow like you said will play his guts out the Offense seems to be responding well with him in there also where is the motivation factor for SanDiego all they want to do is clean out their lockers and go play golf in Hawaii. Denver will be up for this game
and I think IMO that they win straight up .

[Daws1089]

i like the packers chances this week against chicago and their overrated defense. Have a feeling GB may be favored though.

[Underdog88]

i like the packers chances this week against chicago and their overrated defense. Have a feeling GB may be favored though.

I would think this line comes out GB-4.5 or so. Bears off a shootout win, letdown spot here. Revenge spot as well- I lean GB as well.





Can somebody tell me why the Saints are -9 vs TB? I think this line is really based on public perception, and the thought that the Saints are going to repeat the blowout win from week 6. IMO it's a totally different situation, as last meeting the Saints were off a road loss to the Cardinals. This time TB is fighting to get into the playoffs. I really didn't like the Falcons offensive game plan against the Saints last week, as they pretty much abandoned the run after it was unsuccessful first half. Rest assured TB will be getting Blount a ton of carries here, to keep that Saints offense off the field. I think this could be a game that is played down to the wire, but TB's run D is my main concern.

[Underdog88]

Are the Giants in full tank mode or did they just run into a buzzsaw the past two weeks?

[V3r1f13d]

If it wasn't for SD losing to the Bengals this line would easily be over -7.
I'll take the -3.5 for the Chargers not to lose back to back games against 2 .500 teams.
To me it's a great spot to be in. I placed my play earlier this morning anyways.

I took Tampa at +9
Another bloated line just because NO beat ATL at home.
It's over 7 so I don't mind using the "they wont lost by more than 7" mentality, especially at week 17 and with a match up like this.

I took Seattle at +3
That's right. Let the flaming begin...

[Underdog88]

I just don't know how SD could possibly be motivated here, and Tolbert was a huge part of the offense. Look at the games where he didn't produce.... all losses.

I took Seattle at +3
That's right. Let the flaming begin...

No flaming here. I lean Rams at -1 but I'm not laying a fg on the road with a rookie qb. I may lay off altogether.

[Billy The Kid]

havn't been able to post lately as I have been to busy with the holidays, need to up date the record but have some time to throw out a few thoughts on this weeks games.

Miami +4/43 @ New England - Brady needing around 300 yds for 4000 this season but that and the Pats 20 some game winning streak at home is the only motivation. No way Brady/Welker/Branch play the hole game. In the past Bellicheck has made pulled his guys in the 2nd quarter if I'm not mistaken, so we should be seeing plenty of Patriot back ups for almost 3/4 the game. Question is how motivated are the Dolphins to play this game. Different stories out their regarding Sparono's job security but one has to believe both he and Henne are playing with something to prove, hopefully lessening the bitter taste in ownerships mouth from this season. Can't see playing on the Pats knowing we will be seeing mostly back ups. Phins beat NE week 17 a few years back in a similar situation and IMO they are the play as well as small ML play.

Bills +1/39.5 @ Jets - Real strong lean on the Bills right now as they have continued to show up and fight week in and week out this season. Unfortunatly their record doesn't reflect their effort but I would expect more of the same from them. Books seem to think so as well throwing out the +1 as well. Another game where we will most likely be seeing Jets back ups for 3/4 of the game.

Bengals +10/43.5 @ Ravens - Agree with Udog's thoughts on this game. Bengals should be motivated against the divisional rival with a chance to make things a little more difficult for the Ravens super bowl aspirations. There is revenge angle to go along with the 2 seed for the Ravens but I think the 10 points is too many

Raiders +3.5/43.5 @ Chiefs - Strong lean on the Raiders here as well. Not sure how motivated the Chiefs will be as they will finish with the 3 or 4 seed, win or lose. Raiders on the other hand I think will be very motivated to finish 8-8 and 6-0 within the division. I would most likely be on the Raiders in this spot earlier in the season, never mind week 17 and not knowing how long KC starters will play, as I think they match up fairly well with KC. Raiders and ML look like a play.

other leans as of now...

Broncos +3.5
Tampa Bay +7.5


will def. be playing a long shot ML par somewhere as well with Miami, Buffalo, Oakland to start

[PhillyFan3]

I like the Bucs, I am seeing +9 right now, that seems like a lot of points for a team that hasn't been blown out since the last Saints game. Freeman has been outstanding and he should be able to move the ball against the Saints. How motivated are Saints? They have to know Carolina isn't winning, settle for the 5, don't get anyone injured and go to St.Louis or Seattle...Have to go Bucs and take the points

[Daws1089]

don you guys think that tb is just too juicy? books know people will be lining up to take them so they throw them out there as a big dog. if the saints were gonna take this easy why isnt this like -4.5 or so? and don't say because the saints are superbowl champs and they beat the falcons last week. the line is high for a reason i think.

[Daws1089]

and the rams have been horrid on the road this whole season, why now would anyone want to lay 3 pts with them on the road?? that game is getting crossed off my list real fast.

[Underdog88]

don you guys think that tb is just too juicy? books know people will be lining up to take them so they throw them out there as a big dog. if the saints were gonna take this easy why isnt this like -4.5 or so? and don't say because the saints are superbowl champs and they beat the falcons last week. the line is high for a reason i think.

could be. But the Saints would never be at home-4.5 to TB.

[Underdog88]

Forgot to mention this last night but Trent Edwards will be starting at qb for the Jags this week. That kills any chance I would ever have of playing Jax.... and has me looking at the under

[sundayspecial]

plays

bengals at +10 is a great play
the public is never on bengals but without TO they will get more work done. They will run the ball and pass it better

NE pats -4.5
plain and simple...Pats don't lose at home. don't look into it anymore.

Rams -3
i personally love this... Typical win or die match and the rams are coming in with the edge and will cover with ease against lowly seattle....

Tampa Bay +8
new orleans is good, 8 points better good. The public is on the front runner saints and therefore the line is inflated, tampa will cover with complete ease.

STAYING AWAY from IND becuase i am a manning fan but again the line is inflated and even though i hate to say it bet TENN in this situation.

also staying away from Jets...i feel the public backes them up to much, but reasons welly noted and bills are a fighting team. Jets coming off of a hard defensive loss after an offensive shock. Can go either way and i dont like those.

my longshot ml is going to be Tampa or Bengals or Raider

BOL:thumbs:
what else am i missing ..... not looking at the games right now :beerbang: and watching some nccab