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Back again with what really should be my last week. Tough week last week that ruins my YTD record. 3-4 Picks on the season, 4-1 Leans, 1-1 ML plays
I'm just doing a bunch of parlays, so I've bet both sides of the same game on multiple.
I think they're all pretty much leans. I'll count them towards my record, but I've hedged many of them.
Picks
New England -4 and Money Line vs. Philadelphia
Keeping it simple on this one. New England rarely loses 2 games in a row, especially off a bye week after they got pummeled by the Ravens. I realize that Philadelphia is pretty good off a bye too, but I'll take Belichick on this one. Playing this one minus the points and on the Money Line.
NY Jets +2.5 vs. Washington
Under normal circumstances, this would be a really good spot to fade the jets. They looked pretty good last week, or the Giants are just really bad. But as I said before, I know this Haskins guy pretty well, and he’s really bad. Buffalo’s run defense was so poor that it was able to mask his deficiencies, and allowed old man AP to run for over 100 yards. This allowed him to avoid throwing picks, but he was so conservative that they only put up 9 points. Haskins has a cannon for an arm, but no touch. He was so immature that AP had to call him out about not knowing the playbook.
So I’m kinda on the fence with this game. Any other team than Washington, I bet against the Jets. But I think Haskins has several more rough games before he wins a couple this season.
New Orleans -4.5 vs. Tampa Bay
Two teams coming off opposite outcomes. Tampa Bay with the late win and New Orleans with the embarrassing loss. I expect Brees to get back in rhythm this game, and New Orleans’ defense to keep TB in check. This may be the first under TB has had in 7 weeks!
LA Rams -6.5 vs. Chicago
I originally took Chicago here, but I think the line is too high (even though last week it was too high and the Rams still lost). The line should be closer to -3.5 or 4 IMO.
Buffalo / Miami UNDER 40.5
Basic system play. It has nothing to do with how the teams are playing or any other analysis.
Leans
Carolina -4 vs. Atlanta
Carolina has been a pretty good team since Cam went down. Kyle Allen is definitely not special, and I would even say a pretty poor game manager at that. Nonetheless, they’ve been winning on the strength of their pass defense. I’m not convinced that Atlanta is back all of a sudden based on a flukey win at New Orleans last week. I think Atlanta comes back down to earth and is the team we’ve seen the past couple of years rather than the one that got up for a division rival last week.
Carolina can be run on, but Devonta Freeman is out. Normally I don’t like to bet against a team missing their star player, but I don’t really consider Freeman to be a star.
(I hedged this game multiple times because a couple of guys I follow liked Atlanta)
Baltimore -4.5 (Lean) vs. Houston
Line should be 3.5 or less here, especially with Houston coming off a bye. Baltimore has looked impressive the past 2 weeks. That’s probably a bad thing for this week, but I think they keep rolling. (I hedged this game multiple times because a couple of guys I follow liked Houston)
LA Chargers / Kansas City OVER 52
System Play. It has nothing to do with how the teams are playing or any other analysis.
Jacksonville +2.5 vs. Indy
Foles first game back off IR and Brissett back from injury. This is really a toss-up game with Indy now 0-7 SU without Hilton. The decision to start Foles happened 2-3 weeks ago. I don’t think they would have been so definitive to name Foles the starter unless he really looked good in practice. He looked good in week 1. This game could go either way, but I’ll keep with the trend for T.Y. Hilton trend for now. (I hedged this game because I don't like taking both +2.5 road teams, I'm weird like that).
Edit: I left the write-up, but I'm scratching this game. Not counting it towards the record.
Other Plays (I won't count these towards my record):
Arizona +10
Arizona / San Fran UNDER 44
Minnesota -10
Minnesota / Denver UNDER 40.5
Oakland -11.5
LA Chargers +6
I'm just doing a bunch of parlays, so I've bet both sides of the same game on multiple.
I think they're all pretty much leans. I'll count them towards my record, but I've hedged many of them.
Picks
New England -4 and Money Line vs. Philadelphia
Keeping it simple on this one. New England rarely loses 2 games in a row, especially off a bye week after they got pummeled by the Ravens. I realize that Philadelphia is pretty good off a bye too, but I'll take Belichick on this one. Playing this one minus the points and on the Money Line.
NY Jets +2.5 vs. Washington
Under normal circumstances, this would be a really good spot to fade the jets. They looked pretty good last week, or the Giants are just really bad. But as I said before, I know this Haskins guy pretty well, and he’s really bad. Buffalo’s run defense was so poor that it was able to mask his deficiencies, and allowed old man AP to run for over 100 yards. This allowed him to avoid throwing picks, but he was so conservative that they only put up 9 points. Haskins has a cannon for an arm, but no touch. He was so immature that AP had to call him out about not knowing the playbook.
So I’m kinda on the fence with this game. Any other team than Washington, I bet against the Jets. But I think Haskins has several more rough games before he wins a couple this season.
New Orleans -4.5 vs. Tampa Bay
Two teams coming off opposite outcomes. Tampa Bay with the late win and New Orleans with the embarrassing loss. I expect Brees to get back in rhythm this game, and New Orleans’ defense to keep TB in check. This may be the first under TB has had in 7 weeks!
LA Rams -6.5 vs. Chicago
I originally took Chicago here, but I think the line is too high (even though last week it was too high and the Rams still lost). The line should be closer to -3.5 or 4 IMO.
Buffalo / Miami UNDER 40.5
Basic system play. It has nothing to do with how the teams are playing or any other analysis.
Leans
Carolina -4 vs. Atlanta
Carolina has been a pretty good team since Cam went down. Kyle Allen is definitely not special, and I would even say a pretty poor game manager at that. Nonetheless, they’ve been winning on the strength of their pass defense. I’m not convinced that Atlanta is back all of a sudden based on a flukey win at New Orleans last week. I think Atlanta comes back down to earth and is the team we’ve seen the past couple of years rather than the one that got up for a division rival last week.
Carolina can be run on, but Devonta Freeman is out. Normally I don’t like to bet against a team missing their star player, but I don’t really consider Freeman to be a star.
(I hedged this game multiple times because a couple of guys I follow liked Atlanta)
Baltimore -4.5 (Lean) vs. Houston
Line should be 3.5 or less here, especially with Houston coming off a bye. Baltimore has looked impressive the past 2 weeks. That’s probably a bad thing for this week, but I think they keep rolling. (I hedged this game multiple times because a couple of guys I follow liked Houston)
LA Chargers / Kansas City OVER 52
System Play. It has nothing to do with how the teams are playing or any other analysis.
Jacksonville +2.5 vs. Indy
Foles first game back off IR and Brissett back from injury. This is really a toss-up game with Indy now 0-7 SU without Hilton. The decision to start Foles happened 2-3 weeks ago. I don’t think they would have been so definitive to name Foles the starter unless he really looked good in practice. He looked good in week 1. This game could go either way, but I’ll keep with the trend for T.Y. Hilton trend for now. (I hedged this game because I don't like taking both +2.5 road teams, I'm weird like that).
Edit: I left the write-up, but I'm scratching this game. Not counting it towards the record.
Other Plays (I won't count these towards my record):
Arizona +10
Arizona / San Fran UNDER 44
Minnesota -10
Minnesota / Denver UNDER 40.5
Oakland -11.5
LA Chargers +6
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