*** WEEK 1 DISCUSSION ***

[COACH DITKA]

Surprised that UDoggie or one of the vets haven't started this thread yet since we are less than 45 hours until NFL kickoff :thumbs:

Anyways, any thoughts for Week 1? (lines from sportsbook.com) I haven't decided on plays yet, merely jotting down some things that come to mind at the moment.

Saints(NewOrleans)
+175
+4
o47
Packers(GreenBay)
-210
-4
u47
Seems like this could be a shootout. I'm not much into trends but I've heard of the last 11 opening night Thursday games, the SB winning team is 8-2-1 ATS

Steelers(Pittsburgh)
+115
+2.5
o36
Ravens(Baltimore)
-135
-2.5
u36
Anything can happen when these teams battle so might as well take the points

Lions(Detroit)
OFF
+1.5
o41
Buccaneers(Tampa Bay)
OFF
-1.5
u41

Falcons(Atlanta)
-150
-3 (even)
o40.5
Bears(Chicago)
+130
+3 (-120)
u40.5
Die-hard Bears fan here but I have my doubts about Da Bears this year & Forte/Briggs contract situations can't help matters.

Bills(Buffalo)
+200
+5.5
o39.5
Chiefs(KansasCity)
-240
-5.5
u39.5
If Cassel doesn't end up playing, it would be nearly impossible to back a Tyler Palko-led team. Bills also seemed to be playing better at the end of last season.

Colts(Indianapolis)
+320
+9 (-115)
o43.5
Texans(Houston)
-400
-9 (-105)
u43.5
Much like the Cassel situation (except far worse), can anyone back the Colts w/o Manning? Even if he was healthy & playing, that team has an ungodly amount of holes all over, partly do to plenty of 1st round draft busts in recent years.

Eagles(Philadelphia)
-230
-4.5
o44
Rams(StLouis)
+190
+4.5
u44
I'm definitely looking forward to this game. With all the offseason additions, it might take a game or two to gel for Philly so a Rams S/U win wouldn't surprise me here.

Bengals(Cincinnati)
+240
+6.5
o35.5
Browns(Cleveland)
-280
-6.5
u35.5
I don't see Cincy being anything better dreadful over the first half of the season but could at least picture their defense keeping them in this one since McCoy still has no one to throw to unless Little emerges.

Giants(NewYork)
-165
-3 (-120)
o37.5
Redskins(Washington)
+145
+3 (even)
u37.5
It's mind-boggling to back a Grossman-led squad here but you never know what you'll get w/Eli as there are a handful of games each year he's as bad as Rex.

Panthers(Carolina)
+290
+7
o37
Cardinals(Arizona)
-350
-7
u37
Is this the crap game of the week? Will Kolb target Fitz more than 20 times?

Seahawks(Seattle)
+200
+5.5
o38
49ers(SanFrancisco)
-240
-5.5
u38
Alex Smith is not good but Tavaris is sooooo bad - maybe the under is a good play.

Vikings(Minnesota)
+320
+9
o41.5
Chargers(SanDiego)
-400
-9
u41.5
Bolts usually start slow & McNabb could keep things close by handing off to AP 40 times.

Cowboys(Dallas)
+180
+4
o40.5
Jets(NewYork)
-220
-4
u40.5
The game will be good but I'd also like to be able to bet on some kind of eating contest b/w the Ryan brothers at halftime although we'd have to take Bob Costas' word on it since it wold be too graphic to view.

Patriots(NewEngland)
-350
-7
o45.5
Dolphins(Miami)
+290
+7
u45.5
This one seems a little too easy. Chad Henne :laughing: BTW, anyone notice the +/- 7.5 wins for the Dolphins this year? I don't see how they get more than 5.

Raiders(Oakland)
+145
+3 (-105)
o40
Broncos(Denver)
-165
-3 (-115)
u40
Besides being a rivalry game, how is this an opening MNF game? They are both pretty bad teams & could picture a ton of rushing attempts on both sides.

I'm just glad football is finally back!

[DukiesBaby]

Panthers(Carolina)
+290
+7
o37
Cardinals(Arizona)
-350
-7
u37



This game right here Carolina +7 and +290
im gonna be on both, young team expected too lose, great running game talent, this will help that mammoth Cam Newton, My favorite part about this game... KOLB is the QB Im big eagles fan, but boy does this guy have TUNNEL VISION, im gonna go out on a limb here and say Kolb doesnt disappoint and throws 2-3 ints 1 of which goes to the house... Carolina wins this by 9 26-17



Seahawks(Seattle)
+200
+5.5
o38
49ers(SanFrancisco)
-240
-5.5
u38


This is what i call the "Crap game of the week" man f this whole division, go st louis...
um ill take the +5.5 hopefully san fran doesnt score on defense... this game should stay with in a fg...





Cowboys(Dallas)
+180
+4
o40.5
Jets(NewYork)
-220
-4
u40.5



Um Tony ****.... The dallas Cowboys are the Jersey Shore of the NFL, Your facing a football team in the jets, on the road, GOOD LUCK Jets -4 id take them at -9 Defense wins this game alone 27-10 your final



Saints(NewOrleans)
+175
+4
o47
Packers(GreenBay)
-210
-4
u47

The Opening game... Um Over 47, 2 Really Great QB's, Really Good WR's, both pressure defenses, this spells disaster for an over, and should be played as an Under, BUT for me... i just cant see the winning Team here not scoring 28+ 27-20 is all i need, i have to roll with this and go against my usual under play

[Underdog88]

busy start to the week for me, will probably have some time later tonight to look deeper.



I like the Bears as homedogs, the Falcons are getting way too much respect here imo. Looking into the Rams as well, could their d be underrated?

[mgh56]

GB/NO

Love the Pack at home only giving 4 1/2. Until something changes from last year, I'll take 'em every time with this low spread at home.

[Underdog88]

Love the Pack at home only giving 4 1/2. Until something changes from last year, I'll take 'em every time with this low spread at home.

in the first 4 home games they played last year, they would have only covered this line once (34-7 win vs Bills). I think it could be a close game

[Underdog88]

So the Chargers historically struggle to start the season and the Vikings are catching 9? Looks too easy to take Minny here imo. Line tells me SD crushes.


Another too easy line is the Eagles, I'm leaning heavily towards the Rams, I want to see Laurenitis kill Vick.

[Q-Unit]

busy start to the week for me, will probably have some time later tonight to look deeper.



I like the Bears as homedogs, the Falcons are getting way too much respect here imo. Looking into the Rams as well, could their d be underrated?

I like bears for some odd reason too, and only thing scaring me is Cutler's comments about timing being off due to rust. but it's not his first go round with Martz, and that comment came a couple weeks ago, I hope they fixed it!

Like the Rams too

eager to fade teams coming off last seasons high, or offseason high

See: eagles, buccaneers, falcons, KC, etc...

could be wrong though.

People not giving Cleveland much hope either. Citing lack of depth and such. I just look for any form of consistency from that team, and if that means from a front office perspective, QB (McCoy) and RB (Hillis), and playmakers (Cribbs), then I look for the Browns to have value as always but maybe still some sneaky value this year?

[Q-Unit]

So the Chargers historically struggle to start the season and the Vikings are catching 9? Looks too easy to take Minny here imo. Line tells me SD crushes.


Another too easy line is the Eagles, I'm leaning heavily towards the Rams, I want to see Laurenitis kill Vick.

interesting bro, I was thinking opposite lol. Thinking there's some value with Minny because McNabb was coming off a horrible year with Washington by his standards and even the Redskins were offensively impotent (Moss had career high in receptions but low in yardage, since when is he a possession receiver? lol)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but McNabb is coming back to a west coast offense (I could be flat out wrong because Childress left and I dunno off the top of my head what Frazier is running), but either way Minny has weapons for him to work with.

McNabb is many things (depending on who you ask), but he's def a step up from tavaris jackson, and I look for Minny to stay within that generous number.

Maybe youre right though, too easy?

[Billy The Kid]

I'm also leaning towards the rams and Indy. also think Tampa falls into a similar category as a buy low (more of a sell "high" on Detroit)

I understand the hype around Detroit as they have looked great in the preseason and coming off a strong ending to last year but they haven't proven anything yet. I think Tampa might have some revenge angle after Det. ended there long road losing streak (26 or so games if I'm not mistaken) and catching them in a pick the winner seems like a solid play to me. The line imo makes me think that Det would be the play but I think books see the hype from the public about this lions team and knew they would still see plenty of Det. action at a +1.5 dog as opposed to a +3 or so, and they are currently getting it at about around 85%. i tend to fade public backed road teams almost always, never mind week 1 where there is extra motivation. def interested on others thoughts and to see where this line goes moving towards Sunday.

similar feeling about the rams as above. I will def. be on the rams and a small play on the ml


Def. glad football is back! Here's to a great year everyone :beerbang:

[Underdog88]

McNabb is many things (depending on who you ask), but he's def a step up from tavaris jackson, and I look for Minny to stay within that generous number.

Agreed that he is an upgrade, but I think they will have a tough time moving the ball if SD stacks up AP nonetheless. My thing is I don't think the Vikes are going to pull of the su win, so I can't get behind them. SD had just one home win where the margin of victory was less than 21 pts last season, and it was an 8 pt win. Number makes much more sense when you look at it that way.



Starting to warm up to a wager on the Broncos to get the home win. I think a much improved defense in Denver will be able to contain Oakland's run game and get the home w.

[Daws1089]

Let's not forget that the Saints opened at +5.5

[Underdog88]

I think the Texans cover. Normally I would be playing against such a move but I really think Peyton is the exception to the rule. Houston won't hesitate to run it up if they can.... IMO it doesn't even matter if Foster is 100%

[Daws1089]

I'm thinking Tennessee is a huge trap tomorrow. Everyone has already labeled JAX as the worst team this year, but they've made a ton of improvements on defense and they always seem to get a lot out of what they have. I mean they are still favored tomorrow so I don't see how everyone can be so confident with Tennessee.


Leaning towards Ravens tomorrow. Everyone is in love with pittsburgh, let alone pitt as a dog. Yes these teams always play close games, but the loser of the superbowl almost always starts of poorly and I think the ravens can really catch pitt here.

[Daws1089]

Also,

Lions are no longer under the radar. Everyone is expecting big things now so I don't see a lot of value in them this year or even this week. TB looks like a nice play at home.

[Underdog88]

I like the way you're thinking Daws