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  • Wildcard Weekend Pick

    YTD: 11-9-0 +2.12

    Taking:

    Colts +7 -120 on a half point buy. I don't think the Bills are going to be able to stop the run. Because of this, I believe the final score will be much closer than most think.

    Washington Football Team +8. Tom Brady is horrible under pressure and he's going to get a ton of it.

    New Orleans Saints -10. The Bears have had recent success, but it was against garbage teams. I'd be surprised if they score more than 13 points in this game.

    Good luck to all!

  • #2
    A lot of love on the Colts today. Buffalo is on an 8 game covering streak. When it gets that long, I don't try to fade it. Especially if I have to buy points.

    I like Washington and New Orleans, but will keep thinking about it.

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    • #3
      good call long stick! I didn't play the game and didn't want to comment before it was over (superstitious I guess lol) but the colts were at the very least the 4th best team in the afc and I knew this game wouldn't be easy for the bills. top 10 on both sides of the ball and a good pass rush is tough to blow out anytime let alone in the playoffs. that being said I'm very happy with the playoff W, lol, and hoping to be able to attend next week vs whoever it ends up being! we fell just short on season ticket seniority of being able to attend today, but that's supposed to put us near the top for next week so we'll see....

      oh and for what it's worth, since I see you didn't pick this game....I absolutely love Baltimore tomorrow vs Tennessee with revenge. I know their schedule has been "cupcake-y" down the stretch, but they're red hot with the better defense, while tennessee's defense on the other hand is just not gonna be good enough, imo....

      good luck with the rest of your plays!
      ​​​​​​
      Last edited by Stifler's Mom; 01-09-2021, 05:39 PM.

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      • #4
        A stifler sighting!

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Stifler's Mom View Post
          oh and for what it's worth, since I see you didn't pick this game....I absolutely love Baltimore tomorrow vs Tennessee with revenge. I know their schedule has been "cupcake-y" down the stretch, but they're red hot with the better defense, while tennessee's defense on the other hand is just not gonna be good enough, imo....
          Dang another "I love Baltimore" person. This is quite scary. I took the Ravens as well, but on another popular site there's a thread about the Baltimore/Tennessee game, and the first 16 people who posted in that thread all had Baltimore. I wish Tenn would have opened as a small favorite so I could have laid off that game. They should have been a small favorite, but the books knew that everyone would take Baltimore at any price, and they were right.


          I just took a quick look at everyone's picks.

          Me - Baltimore
          Stifler's Mom - Baltimore
          Peanut79 - Baltimore
          Daws1089 - Baltimore
          JoePa - Baltimore
          Gadfly36 - Tennessee

          Along with the first 16 people on another site.

          This is making me really uneasy.......

          If Boiler takes Tennessee tomorrow I'm gonna puke.
          Last edited by recovering77; 01-10-2021, 01:15 AM.

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          • BoilerBacker
            BoilerBacker commented
            Editing a comment
            did not like either side....

        • #6
          haha maybe I'm wrong. I don't follow message boards anymore except when I pop in here, but I do certainly know the power of fading everyone being on the same side is real, lol. it makes me reconsider as well, although I see basically even action reported everywhere I looked just now.

          for what it's worth, I see (ats @ 3.5):

          sports insights: balt 53 / tenn 47
          the score: tenn 52 / balt 48
          scores and odds: tenn 52 / balt 48
          the spread: balt 54 / tenn 46
          ​​​​​​sportsbook dot com: balt 46 / tenn 54
          sports interaction: balt 56 / tenn 44

          ​​​plus home dogs who have the hook, especially those who open with it, or even ones getting the full fg actually, don't normally fare too well in my experience, except in cases where you have what looks like a total mismatch.....say a team like the jets only getting 3/3.5 and you are like wtf, why isn't this 7 or more. the -3.5 was actually something that made me feel more confident in my liking Baltimore. had they been say -2.5, I would have definitely second guessed myself right off the bat....

          instead tenn is a division winner who played in (and had a nice lead in) their conference championship last year, with a very recognizable "new England patriots" connection at head coach and a running back who ran for 2000+ yds this year, vs a team they beat on the road earlier this year and hammered on the road in the playoffs just last year. so why even a home dog, let alone +3.5?

          ​and for what it's worth, opening Baltimore as any sized dog would have, IMHO, gotten the books slaughtered with Baltimore money.

          guess we'll find out soon enough

          ​​
          Last edited by Stifler's Mom; 01-10-2021, 08:43 AM.

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          • #7
            Originally posted by Stifler's Mom View Post
            haha maybe I'm wrong. I don't follow message boards anymore except when I pop in here, but I do certainly know the power of fading everyone being on the same side is real, lol. it makes me reconsider as well, although I see basically even action reported everywhere I looked just now.

            for what it's worth, I see (ats @ 3.5):

            sports insights: balt 53 / tenn 47
            the score: tenn 52 / balt 48
            scores and odds: tenn 52 / balt 48
            the spread: balt 54 / tenn 46
            ​​​​​​sportsbook dot com: balt 46 / tenn 54
            sports interaction: balt 56 / tenn 44

            ​​​plus home dogs who have the hook, especially those who open with it, or even ones getting the full fg actually, don't normally fare too well in my experience, except in cases where you have what looks like a total mismatch.....say a team like the jets only getting 3/3.5 and you are like wtf, why isn't this 7 or more. the -3.5 was actually something that made me feel more confident in my liking Baltimore. had they been say -2.5, I would have definitely second guessed myself right off the bat....

            instead tenn is a division winner who played in (and had a nice lead in) their conference championship last year, with a very recognizable "new England patriots" connection at head coach and a running back who ran for 2000+ yds this year, vs a team they beat on the road earlier this year and hammered on the road in the playoffs just last year. so why even a home dog, let alone +3.5?

            ​and for what it's worth, opening Baltimore as any sized dog would have, IMHO, gotten the books slaughtered with Baltimore money.

            guess we'll find out soon enough

            ​​
            That was exactly my logic in taking Baltimore. I thought the line opened too high. So it surprised me when I saw so many people on Baltimore last night.

            My bet is already in, so there's no changing now. Just be aware that it's a pretty popular pick. But so was Indy yesterday, and they ended up covering.

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            • #8

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              • #9
                Originally posted by Stifler's Mom View Post

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