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Super Bowl Initial Thoughts and Analysis

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  • recovering77
    started a topic Super Bowl Initial Thoughts and Analysis

    Super Bowl Initial Thoughts and Analysis

    Slow week around here. I haven't even seen a SB thread yet, so I'll go ahead and start it off. Last game, big game for many, so it requires extra analysis. I'm a self proclaimed "Public Fader" that tends to go against logic. But there's a line between actual fundamental and statistical analysis, and fading logic. I'm having a hard time find this balance this week so here goes. I will continue to edit the post as new things come to mind.

    Point Spread
    Kansas City comes in as a 3.5 point favorite to open, but it's moving slightly towards Tampa +3 with the juice being on KC. These teams played in Tampa Bay 2 months ago, with the spread being the same 3.5 points, and Tampa Bay covered. But it was a 3 point game. So there's nothing really wrong with the line here. The books set it as a 3 point game, and it was a 3 point game last time. You could say that this is a home game for Tampa, but it's not really. 7,500 first responders, I assume locals, will be getting free tickets. About 15-16,000 other tickets will be sold. And those will be expensive, and I assume will not automatically be Tampa Bay fans. They will be the rich corporate folks who can afford thousands of dollars for tickets and airfare.

    The Bucs covered the line because of 2 garbage touchdowns late in the game. KC was up 17-0 at one point, and 27-10 in the 4th quarter. So this game was not as close as it appeared. I didn't watch the game, so I didn't know what happened other than the final score until now. Tyreek Hill had 13 catches, 269 yards, and 3 TDs. Mike Evans had two late TDs, and the Chiefs ran out the last 4 mins to the victory. The Bucs rush defense mostly contained KC's rushers the whole game. Forced them into a FG attempt from 2nd and goal at the 1.

    The total opened at 56.5 and has dropped slightly to 55.5/56. It opened half a point higher than the closing line of the first meeting, which went under (51 total points). This stands out to me, and makes me favor the over. However, the unders have been hitting at a noticeable rate in the super bowls. The term "defense wins championships" continues to hold true. I like taking overs where at least one of the teams has a good defense. Both of these teams have weapons galore, and vegas probably knew they could set the total pretty high, and the public would still be all over it. It's the super bowl after all, and if you couldn't pick between the two teams, why not just hope for an entertaining, high scoring game when a lot of people are going to be at parties seeing their friends?

    I think I saw a stat that the combination of Favorite + Over has only hit like 3 times in the past 20 years, which isn't that surprising actually. Only 25% chance of that. And the public is apparently on the Chiefs and the Over. Not an overwhelming amount though, as this is the super bowl, and I don't really see a "square" play here.

    Playoff Experience
    One of my biggest factors when picking the super bowl is playoff experience. Other than the young Seahawks Super Bowl win over Denver years back, the team with more playoff experience has typically won. I think the edge here goes to Kansas City, who came up short against New England 2 years ago. Then fought their way back to win the Super Bowl last year. So this is their third year of significant playoff experience, and that isn't counting the perennial playoff team they were under Andy Reid with Alex Smith as the quarterback.

    Some will obviously point to Brady, who has the most big game playoff experience of all, and Gronkowski who was there for many of those. And Antonio Brown, (if you could call that an advantage). But the rest of this Tampa team is really just sniffing their first success of their careers. We've all heard about the Tampa player that was crying after making it to the Super Bowl, and Brady calling him out saying like what are you crying for, we're not done yet! This is clearly not the New England Patriots teams of the past, and they shouldn't be treated as such just because they have two players from that team. Bruce Arians is supposedly a good coach, but this will be his first super bowl.

    Go ahead and look at past history and show me teams that won the super bowl without a veteran team that had playoff experience. Outside of that Seattle team, you won't find many.

    Public Perception
    Some could say that Kansas City is the goliath here. They were 14-2 on the season, and one of those losses was a meaningless week 17 game with a backup quarterback. So Kansas City basically lost 1 game all season, to a division rival that gave them all they had and took a victory lap around the stadium after winning that 1 regular season game. But I've never seen a so called goliath perform so poorly against the spread before. Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. Over the past 3 months, this goliath team has not been a good team to bet on. But as their record has shown, they have won the close games. But most of them have been close games.

    Tampa has had their ups and downs this season. Up until the playoffs, they really hadn't beaten anyone. They lost to the Saints twice, which weren't particularly close. Lost to the bears because of a Brady brain fart, and lost to the rams and chiefs. They had one signature win in the regular season over Green Bay, who they just beat again last week.

    Those that I see that are taking Tampa Bay are only taking them for one reason, Brady, the GOAT. Not saying that's not a good reason, but that's the only angle I'm seeing from a lot of Tampa backers. Brady isn't some mythical figure though. He's only a man, and a man that threw 3 picks against the packers last week.

    But really, how could you bet against a team that's essentially 16-1 on the season, in a game that's essentially a pickem with the line only being 3 on some books?

    Repeating as Champions

    No team has repeated as Super Bowl champions since the Patriots did it in 2005. I was reading an article about this, but the Chiefs have avoided much of the roadblocks to a repeat because of the COVID situation. There was no offseason, no preseason. Much of the past year has been everyone practicing, playing, then going home to avoid catching COVID. No extended partying and celebrations, no night clubs/strip clubs, no getting crunked in the club. The Chiefs aren't even allowed to go to Tampa until two days before the game, so they've avoided the media circus that comes with super bowl week. Some may say that's a benefit to the Bucs who haven't been here before, and don't have to worry as much about getting family members tickets and travel accommodations. Though I'm sure there will be family members coming.

    Not much time for Kansas City to yup it up and feel themselves. Bask in the glory of their Super Bowl victory. They were taking teams best shots all season, and came out ahead in all of them except one.

    I know there's a million trends you could look at, but this one did catch my eye. One thing that stuck out to me, and was one of the reasons I took Washington in the Wild Card round was Tampa Bay's pattern of covering 2 games, then not covering the third. Tampa Bay has covered 2 games in a row 5 times this season. They are currently on a 2 game covering streak. The previous 4 times they've covered 2 in a row, they have not covered the third game. But after looking at this more closely, it appears that they won the third game in all previous occurrences, they just didn't cover (favorites in every game). Interestingly enough, in the third game which they did not cover, all 4 instances went over the total. However none of those totals was over 50, so it was easier for them to hit.

    Statistical Matchups Portion
    I usually don't go this far into write-ups. So pardon my writing here if I don't do it too well.

    It is well known that Tampa's run defense is solid. It's been like this for several years now. You don't run on tampa, you have to throw on them, and the secondary was historically bad last season. But they've patched it up a bit with draft additions.

    Tampa Bay is ranked #1 against the run this season. #1 in rushing yards allowed (3.6ypc), and #1 in rushing touchdowns allowed (10).
    Tampa Bay is ranked #8 in passing yards allowed, but #22 in passing TDs allowed. This could be because they're so darn good against the run, the teams had no choice but to pass.

    Kansas City is #21 in rushing yards allowed (4.5 ypc), and 10th in rushing TDs allowed. I notice a disparity there. Maybe it's that teams do have success running against KC, but that they are playing from behind and have to abandon it too quickly.
    Kansas City is #19 in passing yards allowed, and #21 passing touchdowns allowed. This actually surprises me, because I thought the way to beat KC was to run it as opposed to the pass, but it appears they're about equally as bad at both.

    Tampa is 8th in points allowed per game (22.2)
    Kansas City is 10th in points allowed per game (22.6)

    Also note that the Chiefs defensive Coordinator is Steve Spagnuolo, who led both the NY Giants defenses that beat Brady's Patriots a decade ago.

    Interesting stat here.

    Tampa bay is 10th worst at committing penalties. And they gave up the 2nd worst amount of penalty yards this season.
    Kansas City is 9th worst at committing penalties. But only 16th worst in penalty yards.

    So basically Tampa gives up a lot of pass interferenence penalties I assume.

    I hadn't actually checked this prior to writing, so this is new to me.

    Kansas City is #1 in passing yards, and #3 in passing touchdowns. #6 in points scored per game (29.6 ppg)
    Tampa Bay is #2 in passing yards, and #2 in passing touchdowns. #3 in points scored per game (30.8 ppg).

    Now I see why the total has been set so high. If they both hit their averages, that's 60.4 points a game!

    Too bad that doesn't equate to overs being hit. KC is 9-9 O/U this season, and TB is 11-8.

    Tampa Bay is 28th in rushing yards. 18th in rushing touchdowns.
    Kansas City is 16th in rushing yards. 23rd in rushing touchdowns.

    I didn't realize TB was so bad at running the ball. I also expected KC to be lower. Edwards-Helaire didn't impress me this season, and Leveon Bell is washed up.

    Slow Brady Starts
    I read this stat on some article this week. Brady has been in 9 super bowls, and the first quarters have gone like this:

    XXXVI vs. Rams, Rams led 3-0
    XXXVIII vs. Panthers, tied 0-0
    XXXIX vs. Eagles, tied 0-0
    XLII vs. Giants, Giants led 3-0
    XLVI vs. Giants, Giants led 9-0
    XLIX vs. Seahawks, tied 0-0
    LI vs. Falcons, tied 0-0
    LII vs. Eagles, Eagles led 9-3
    LIII vs. Rams, tied 0-0

    Ain't that amazing? Brady's teams have scored a total of THREEE (3) points in the first quarter of 9 super bowl games. He hasn't been winning after the first quarter in any of them. How is over 56 going to hit when Brady has only scored once in the first quarter of the last 9 games?

    Despite this, In super bowls, Brady is 4-5 O/U somehow, and overs are 3-1 in his last 4, the last one being under.

    First quarter line is over under 10.5, Bucs +0.5.

    Vegas Angles
    So who does Vegas want to win, or more importantly who do they not want to win?

    I've mentioned this earlier that there isn't really a "square" pick here. I'm showing 58% consensus on KC on another site, but that's negligible IMO. I think the casual, casual fan that only bets the SB would take KC here. Primarily because they've only lost 1 game all season, plus despite mutterings of the GOAT, there's a lot of people around the country that don't like Tom Brady for some reason. This isn't Lebron James level hatred, but there's a lot of people who don't like Brady as much as I don't like Aaron Rodgers, but respect his success.

    I was reading an article last week that KC did receive the most SB futures bets, but that Tampa Bay was second. So the question to me is, who gets the bigger payouts (including the initial stake)? I'd welcome comments on this.

    Do the KC backers and the larger quantity, and larger money bets (I assume) at +200 or whatever before the playoffs started make more money. Or do the lesser number of bets paying 10 or 12-1 on Tampa pay out more? I think the article said Vegas does not want the Buccaneers to win, because a lot of people bet on them. That was a great value at minimum 10x your money.

    NFL Angles
    Who does the NFL want to win? Does it matter to them? One would have thought that they would've wanted the Packers to win with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay's huge fan base. Green Bay had gotten questionable calls all season, but it seemed to go against them last game.

    Does the NFL like the storyline of a changing of the guard and Brady handing off to Mahomes? I disagree that this angle even exists. Because Mahomes has already won the Super Bowl, and Brady's Patriots had an early exit last season, and the current Patriots are no more, a rebuilding team.

    The NFL angle only worked once for me. Two years ago I was 100% positive that the Rams would not beat the Patriots. There was no way that the NFL would have let an asterisk Rams team win the super bowl after that missed pass interference call against the Saints. They wouldn't have been true champions.

    I don't see an angle like that here. Either Brady or Mahomes winning is both good for the NFL. And Brady is coming back next year anyways, so there's no Peyton Manning type sendoff in this one.

    Social Issues
    I think the social issues were mainly last season correct? And we had a black quarterback win last season. So I don't think there is an angle on that here. Both assistant coaches are up for Head Coaching gigs. Leftwich and Bienemy. All the slots have been filled though right?

    Mattress Mack has $3.46M on Bucs +3.5. This dude loses everything he picks, but I'm sure he doesn't really care that much because he has insurance.

    Madden simulation has KC winning 37-27. KC + Over. The simulation had a great record for a number of years. 8-2 in a 10 year stretch. Picked Seahawks/Patriots game perfectly. Last year picked KC correctly (missed the total). Record of 2-3 in their last 5.

    Seems like this year has been a year of Chalk.
    NFL Winner - Chiefs (Last Year). They were favored the entire way.
    NBA Winner - Lakers. Them and the Clippers were expected to win it the whole time, but the Lakers had the better 2 players, and best player in the league
    MLB Winner - Dodgers. They had the best team the entire season, and finished it off for the title.
    NHL Winner - Tampa Bay Lightning. Higher seed beat the lower seeded Dallas Stars for the cup.
    NCAAF Winner - Alabama. #1 seed overall in the CFB playoff. Won in a blowout.
    NCAAB had no tournament so there was no winner.

    Not going to go further cuz those are the majors. But the top ranked team won every major sport this year.
    Last edited by recovering77; 02-06-2021, 12:40 AM.

  • recovering77
    Okay, sorry for the late post. I decided since I did so much research that I would do a little quarter by quarter prediction.

    First Quarter: Tampa +0.5 -160, KC -0.5 +120, Total Over 10 -130, Under 10 +110 Even

    I think Brady bucks the trend here and gets points on the board in the first quarter.

    They've reviewed the Oakland game film. Oakland was the only team to beat KC this season with Mahomes playing. They did that with a commitment to the run. Josh Jacobs had 25 carries that game. He only averaged a pedestrian 3.3 yards a carry, but they stuck with it.

    Tampa Bay will get the ball first and mix in the run and the pass. The drive culminates with a Brady TD pass to either Evans or Godwin. 7-0 Tampa Bay

    Kansas City (not necessarily on the second drive), looks for Hill, but he's double covered and Mahomes begins his trend of peppering Kelce with targets.
    Kansas City ends the drive with a Kelce touchdown.

    We're tied 7-7 going into the second quarter.

    Second Quarter: KC -0.5 -110, TB +0.5 -110. Over 17 +100, Under 17 -130. This is projected to the highest scoring quarter of the game.

    Kansas City continues to look to for Kelce and Mahomes finds him for his second TD of the day. A missed XP puts it at 13-7 Kansas City

    Tampa Bay drive comes up short trying to answer, and they knock in a field goal. 13-10

    KC adds a field goal themselves to make it 16-10

    Brady tries his best to answer with a TD, but runs out of time and they settle for a field goal to end the half.

    16-13 KC going into the halftime.

    Third Quarter: Tampa Bay 0.5 -120, KC -0.5 -110. Over 10.5 -105, Under 10.5 -125

    A slow moving quarter with teams trading punts.

    Tampa Bay tacks on another field goal to tie the game at 16-16

    KC is driving, but disaster strikes, and Mahomes throws an INT and it's returned for a touchdown. 23-16 Tampa Bay

    Fourth Quarter: Tampa +0.5 -125, KC -0.5 -105. Over 14.5 -110, Under 14.5 -120.

    Mahomes looks for a quick strike and finds a long TD pass to Mecole Hardman. 23-23

    Brady Answers with a TD pass to either Scotty Miller or Cameron Brate. 30-23 Tampa Bay

    With the clock ticking, Mahomes tries to hit Kelce for his third TD of the day, but TB gets called for pass interference.

    With the ball at the 1 yard line, goal line back Darrell Williams plunges into the endzone for a TD. 30-30 tie.

    The defense prevents Brady from scoring and it heads to overtime.

    Kansas City wins the toss. Mahomes is getting pressured and forced to side arm a throw across his body that he's so good at, but is picked off by Antoine Winfield Jr.

    This puts the ball in KC territory and Brady does enough to get them to around the 20 yard line for the game winning field goal.

    Brady and Mahomes embrace at midfield (because Brady will only shake your hand if he wins). And Tom gets his 7th Super Bowl title.

    Final 33-30. Tampa Bay. An instant classic that lives up to the hype.

    My pick is Tampa Bay +3 (and ML), and over 56.

    But I think the team the gets the defensive touchdown wins the game.

    Good luck to everyone on their bets, and have a fun and safe night!

    I added a $4 Parlay
    Tampa Bay -2.5
    Over 56.5
    Kelce Anytime Scorer
    Darrel Williams Anytime Scorer
    Mecole Hardman Anytime Scorer
    Mecole Hardman Over 28.5 Yards
    Travis Kelce Over 98.5 Yards
    Tyreek Hill Under 94.5 Yards
    Tom Brady over 225 Yards (Alt Total - Really 296.5)
    Patrick Mahomes Over 275 Yards (Alt Total - Really 329.5)

    $4 to win 2364

    Last edited by recovering77; 02-07-2021, 05:40 PM.

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  • Stifler's Mom
    when did it drop from +3.5 to +3? was it around the time the 3.4m bet was made on tb? not sure if it matters, since the bet is from apparently a known loser, or if there's even any way to know, but I'm just curious.

    on paper, kc wins this game going away. but I have a bad feeling about betting them, and it's NOT because of Tom Brady. something doesn't feel right. it looks too easy. if I bet the game at all, it will be small.
    gl tonight
    Last edited by Stifler's Mom; 02-07-2021, 02:12 PM.

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  • recovering77
    Originally posted by Stifler's Mom View Post
    first of all, great info. thanks for sharing.

    second though, and this is just my opinion, I don't for a second believe these sportsbook managers when they say what kind of action they already have, or who they need, or will need, to cover.

    logic tells you that "faders", especially inexperienced ones, will see that.....say to themselves "well the house usually ain't gonna lose, and he basically says Joe Schmoe has bet so heavily on kc so far that it's overcome a 3.45m bet on tb, and they're gonna bet so heavily on kc super bowl Sunday that it's gonna be lopsided enough that they'll "need tb" to cover".... and then the fader will say welp, I guess it's tb for me then, don't wanna bet with Joe Schmoe, especially in the big one where there's more Joe Schmoe's than any other game all year....and in this case, you can even get the "hook" to protect you from the 1 fg loss.....the biggest square trap of them all!

    admittedly I don't know this to be the case, what the dollar amounts really are or aren't, or for what reason a book would want or need action on a certain side, just saying I don't buy it when these, probably usually slimy to begin with, sportsbook managers tell us what they have and what they need simply out of the goodness of their hearts.

    Yeah, we usually don't get this kinda insight on any particular game except in the SB. All I know is the line opened at Kansas City -3.5, went to -3 with heavy juice (-120) on KC and basically stayed there the entire week. But in the past 1-2 days it has slowly moved towards -110 on both sides of the 3, and the TB ML has dropped from +145 or so to +135.

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  • Stifler's Mom
    first of all, great info. thanks for sharing.

    second though, and this is just my opinion, I don't for a second believe these sportsbook managers when they say what kind of action they already have, or who they need, or will need, to cover.

    logic tells you that "faders", especially inexperienced ones, will see that.....say to themselves "well the house usually ain't gonna lose, and he basically says Joe Schmoe has bet so heavily on kc so far that it's overcome a 3.45m bet on tb, and they're gonna bet so heavily on kc super bowl Sunday that it's gonna be lopsided enough that they'll "need tb" to cover".... and then the fader will say welp, I guess it's tb for me then, don't wanna bet with Joe Schmoe, especially in the big one where there's more Joe Schmoe's than any other game all year....and in this case, you can even get the "hook" to protect you from the 1 fg loss.....the biggest square trap of them all!

    admittedly I don't know this to be the case, what the dollar amounts really are or aren't, or for what reason a book would want or need action on a certain side, just saying I don't buy it when these, probably usually slimy to begin with, sportsbook managers tell us what they have and what they need simply out of the goodness of their hearts.
    Last edited by Stifler's Mom; 02-07-2021, 09:16 AM.

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  • recovering77
    I'll do a write up tomorrow on my final pick. Too tired tonight.

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  • recovering77
    MGM Betting Trends

    I thought this was interesting when I read it. I can't link, so I'll copy and paste some stuff.

    As we inch closer to Super Bowl LV, more and more betting money is coming in on the underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers at BetMGM.

    The Kansas City Chiefs opened up as 3.5-point favorites over Tom Brady and the Bucs and bettors jumped all over the Chiefs early on. A few days after the odds were posted, BetMGM reported three six-figure bets on the Chiefs with 76% of the bets and 80% of the money on Kansas City.

    With the game just a few days away, those numbers have shifted considerably.

    As of Thursday, just 60% of the bets are on the Chiefs and 53% of the money is actually on the Tampa Bay side. On Monday, MGM reported that 62% of the bets were on the Chiefs and 51% of the money was on the Bucs.

    The action is slowly trending in Tampa Bay’s direction. There are two monster bets on the Bucs playing a significant role in those figures.

    The first was a $2.3 million bet on the Bucs covering the spread. If the Bucs do cover the 3.5, the bettor will win $2 million. BetMGM also received a $345,000 bet on the Bucs +3.5 at -115 odds. That bet would pay out $300,000.

    Those two bets are much larger than the early big bets on the Chiefs:

    $180,000 to win $100,000 on Chiefs moneyline (-180)

    $115,000 to win $100,000 on Chiefs -3.5 (-115)

    $110,000 to win $100,000 on Chiefs -3.5 (-110)

    On Monday, Jason Scott, the VP of Trading for BetMGM, said he expected more public money to come in on the Chiefs ahead of kickoff. He also expected more action from the big money sharp bettors.

    “The public loves Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but sharp bettors have not wagered on either team,” Scott said. “The book is currently balanced but come Sunday BetMGM will likely need Tom Brady and the Buccaneers to cover. Of course that could change as more big bets are placed leading up to kickoff.”

    Huge bet on the under

    The total for Super Bowl LV opened at 57.5 and dipped down slightly to 56.5. Despite potentially rainy and windy weather in the forecast for Sunday, oddsmakers are still projecting a pretty high-scoring game.

    Most bettors have been siding with the over, but more folks have been betting on the under as the week has progressed. As of Thursday, 69% of the bets and 67% of the money at BetMGM is on the over, down from 74% of the bets and 71% of the money on the over on Monday.

    Notably, BetMGM received a $205,000 bet on the under 56.5. Should the total fall under that figure, the bettor would win $186,363.65.

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  • recovering77
    Thanks Kevin. I got your e-mail and my square. Good luck to you. I actually haven't made my pick yet, but I will tomorrow and make a final post. But I think I know where I'm going right now.

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  • Kevin
    Awesome writeup! I'll chime in a bit later with my thoughts as well!

    You have a square on our squares board! Please shoot me an email at with your cell number and I'll send you the pic of the board! Good luck!

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  • recovering77
    Part II: Game and Player Props (via Removed by Me Because They're Not a Sponsor)

    For big games I often examine player props for lines that stick out so I can piece together what is likely to happen in the game.

    I didn't put a pick in my first post, but I am leaning the over. I'm undecided on the side, but probably Tampa. The first game was Tampa under, so if I can't find a scenario where this game goes over, I'm going to have to lay off. And by the looks of these props, Vegas does not like the Bucs to score much in conventional ways. The props I've seen so far are screaming under for most of these player props, and maybe the game.

    QB Passing Yards
    Mahomes O/U 329.5 Passing Yards
    Brady O/U 296.5 Passing Yards.

    Mahomes had 462 passing yards in the first game.
    Brady had 345 passing yards in the first game.

    That's a pretty steep drop for both quarterbacks. Examining Mahomes game log shows me that in games where he passed for under 329.5 yards, every game went under except 1 (the Saints game KC won 32-29). Over 400 yards on Mahomes is paying +370. So almost 4-1 if he repeats the first meeting. That seems like too much value to me. The under is 7-1 in KC games where Mahomes threw for under 329.5 yards, so he threw under that 7 times.

    Correction. I was only counting the regular season. Mahomes threw for 325 last game in a route of Buffalo where it went over.

    Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards
    Tyreek Hill O/U 94.5 Yards Receiving

    Tyreek Hill had easily his best game of the season vs. Tampa two months ago. He had 13 catches, 269 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Yet they only set his total at 94.5 this time? Digging deeper, he only averaged 85 yards receiving per game. And he only went over 94.5 five times in the regular season. He went for 9 catches and 172 last game against Buffalo.

    Looking for a repeat performance of the first meeting? Over 125 yards pays +240. Tyreek Hill had a touchdown of 75 yards alone last meeting. This total seems low, and I think it's under. The total for his longest catch is set at only 27.5 yards. He had a 71 yarder against Buffalo last game.

    Travis Kelce Receiving Yards
    Travis Kelce O/U 98.5 Receiving Yards

    Travis Kelce is actually favored for most props. Favored for first TD, favored for most receiving yards, scores a TD is -165. The total is set at 98.5, while he only had 82 in the first meeting. So if Tyreek Hill doesn't have a monster game, and I don't think he will, it's gonna be someone else, and it's likely going to be Kelce based on everything I'm seeing. Take the over on this prop. He's a tight end though, so don't expect 200 yards out of him. Over 125 is +220 which is still reasonable, but over 150 is +450, so that's not likely.

    In games where Travis Kelce has gone over 98.5 yards receiving, KC is 1-5 ATS, and 5-1 SU. The Over is 4-2 in those games. KC scored 35 or more in 5 of those 6 games.

    The prop to score 2 TDs the only non-ridiculous payouts are Kelce and Hill. And if it's not going to be Hill, it's going to be Kelce +350 only.

    I also read that teams that win consecutive super bowls, the the MVP has only repeated once. I think Kelce could get it here.

    Mahomes Passing Touchdowns
    I can't find the prop right now, but from what I remember, the odds were predicting about 3. Keep that in mind. (It's O/U 2.5 TDs, with the over at -136)
    Couple that with any player scores 2 TDs -430. Any player doesn't score 3 TDs is -950 though. This is why Kelce will score 2 TDs, because it's -430 that a player does.

    P.S. Brady is O/U 2.5 TD passes, but -168 on the under.

    So who is gonna score or have a big game on Tampa Bay?
    Looking like no one....

    Mike Evans O/U 63.5 Receiving Yards Only. He had 3 catches for 50 last game, but with 2 late touchdowns.
    Chris Godwin O/U 73.5 Receiving Yards. He had 8 catches for 97 yards last game.
    Antonio Brown O/U 40 Receiving Yards. He had 2 catches for 11 yards last game. So may be worth a shot.
    Rob Gronkowski O/U 31.5 Receving Yards Only. He led the team last game with 6 catches for 106 yards last game. (KC was 8th worst def vs. TEs in fantasy)
    Note* Cameron Brate is O/U 30.5 Receiving Yards.

    So what type of game is it where AB is the teams leading receiver? Seems like one where they got nothing going and diva AB says gimme the ball and let me make a play, and Brady force feeds his roommate.

    But if no receiver is gonna have a big game then it's gotta be the running backs right?

    Leonard Fournette O/U 48.5 rushing yards only.
    Ronald Jones O/U 35.5 rushing yards.

    Fournette has taken over as the starter. Last game he only had 3 carries for 10 yards. Ronald Jones led the team with 9 carries for 66 yards as the starter in the first game. But Jones had 1 catch that went for a touchdown. Not a big rushing game for the Bucs last game as they fell behind pretty early, and were pretty ineffective running the ball. But that's no surprise, they are ranked 28th in the league in rushing.

    Combined carries between the two backs is set at O/U 20. Total carries in the first game was 12.

    The Most Damning Prop I've Seen of All.

    So I've already documented Brady's first quarter troubles. Only scored 3 points in 9 first quarters of super bowls. So when I see:

    Brady First Quarter Touchdown: No -180, Yes +140. It doesn't surprise me. And it actually kinda makes me like the Yes here.

    But let's just say he doesn't throw a TD pass in the first quarter cuz he apparently never does.

    Well that's okay, cuz he's gonna throw one in the second quarter for sure! Not so fast.

    Brady throws a 2nd quarter touchdown: Yes -120, No -105.

    That's basically even money for something that seems like a sure thing.

    Well, Brady is a second half guy. Everyone knows that. He's gonna pour it on and do his best in the clutch in the second half obviously.

    Brady throws a 3rd quarter touchdown: No -155, Yes +120. Yikes!!!!

    Well, when I said second half guy, I meant 4th quarter guy. Brady's not gonna go down without a fight! He threw two garbage TDs in the 4th quarter of last game.

    Brady throws a 4th quarter touchdown: No -135, Yes +105. Holy moly.......

    Okay, well if no one has a big game, they're gonna have to score other ways. Like a trick play.

    Total Players to throw a touchdown pass:
    Over 2.5 +1000
    Under 2.5 -3000

    In fairness, Total Players to throw a pass in general Over 2.5 is only like +170 or +210. I can't find the prop right now, so there probably will be a trick play somewhere. I took the over on this prop back in 2005 when Pitt played Seattle and I think it was like +240 and Randle El threw that touchdown pass.

    Will a Special Teams or Defensive TD be scored?
    Yes +200, No -275.

    That line is low. There will be a D/ST TD in this game. KC is +385 and TB is +450 to score one.

    Thanks Skip Bayless for this stat: Tampa Bay led the NFL in takeaways this season.

    KC Rushers:
    Clyde Edwards Helaire TD: +165
    Darrell Williams TD: +185

    Whoa. Both these dudes had zero touchdowns in the first game. Against Tampa's #1 rush defense, and these odds are not paying very much to take them. I see one or both of them scoring in this game. I think it will be Williams on a draw play or 1st and goal at the 1 after a PI penalty.

    TB Scorers:
    Evans +105
    Fournette +125
    Godwin +135

    All these dudes are relatively expensive. Evans probably gets a TD, Fournette probably gets a rushing one. And I'll take one more passing TD to keep brady under 3. That probably goes to Scotty Miller or Cameron Brate.

    Missed XP
    This prop doesn't matter that much in the grand scheme of things, but it's -300 No, +220 Yes. It doesn't happen very often, and I see value here on the miss due to the payout being so low. It'll be Butker that misses, cuz those things always stress out the team giving points.

    Lowest Scoring Quarter
    Lowest Scoring Quarter O/U 3.5. Over -210, Under +155.

    Geeeeeez. 3.5 for a game that has a total of 56? I still think the over hits on this one, but barely. It will definitely be a scare. Probably first quarter. It'll be 3-0 and someone will squeak out a score before the quarter ends.

    Total Combined Yardage of all Field Goals Made in the Game
    O/U 118.5. So they're projecting about 3-4 field goals in this game.
    Total Successful FGs: 1.5 -850, 2.5 -245, 3.5 +105, 4.5 +238
    Most FGs: KC -145, TB +110

    Highest Scoring Quarter O/U 21. Under -130. Over +100.

    Total Touchdowns. Over 5.5 -230, Over 6.5 -145, Over 7.5 +170

    Total Touchdowns - 1st Quarter. Over 0.5 -450. Over 1.5 +120.

    Total Chiefs TDs: 3, +300, 4 +333, 5 +500, 6+ +450. Over 2.5 -320, Over 3.5 -125, Over 4.5 +215
    Total Bucs TDs: 2, +300, 3, +275, 4, +350, 6+ +800. Over 2.5 -210, 3.5 +150

    Shortest Touchdown Yardage in the Game: Over 1.5 +165, Under 1.5 -220.

    I will continue examining the props but they are telling me this game is gonna be low, and Tampa is not gonna have a big offensive game.

    Just read the prop for Tampa Bay 3rd downs (conversions I assume) is only 5.5 +120? I can't confirm that, but that's kinda low isn't it? Some teams have 3-4 of those on one drive.
    Last edited by recovering77; 02-06-2021, 12:11 PM.

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