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My take on Super Bowl LV

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  • My take on Super Bowl LV

    Disclaimer: As with any NFL game, anybody can win. That's why they play the game.

    With that being said, I think the Buccaneers are going to win by a touchdown or more.

    I'll try to list my supporting variables in order of importance.

    Tampa Bay is HOT. They just went into Lambeau Field and knocked off the Packers. No easy task.

    Chiefs left tackle Eric Fisher is OUT. This is the guy that protects Mahomes's backside. Very concerning vs. a nasty DL This is on top of the team losing Mitchell Schwartz earlier this season. Mahomes has been able to sidestep this issue because of his deep drops and scrambling ability. He has turf toe though. One hard stomp/ding and he may go out of the game. TB ranks top four in sacks (48) and top three in QB hits (116) The pressure may also force Mahomes into throwing Int's.

    Mike Remmers will move from RT to LT. He'll be playing out of position.

    I don't think KC can stop the run. This opens up play action which will keep the defense off balance. I don't believe KC will be able to do the same as TB is so staunch vs. the run. The question is can TB's secondary stop the passing game of KC. I doubt it, but TB has a slight advantage here with keeping the Chiefs D guessing.

    The line opened at 3.5 and was quickly bet down to 3. The odds on the 3 have been hit pretty hard by sharp bettors and I've seen TB as high as +3 -115. (started out at -103) Since only 42% of bettors are backing the TB spread, this tells us sharp money is moving the line.

    I have access to a database of handicappers that have hit 60% or better this season and 7 out of 10 of them are on TB.

    The Chiefs tend to start out slow in playoff games. They did vs. TB in last year's SB as well as last game vs. Buffalo. I don't think they can get away with that vs. this defense.and a good coach.

    KC was overvalued all season long. They went 7-8 ATS with Mahomes at the helm.

    KC beat TB earlier this season with Hill having the game of his life and they still only won by a FG.

    This is Brady's 10TH Super Bowl! He won't be nervous.

    Do I think the Chiefs offense can be stopped? No. Do I think TB has more edges than KC. Yes. I believe they win this game by 7+. I'm forecasting a 31-20 or 31-24 final score. I have a degen $10 bet on each (10/1750 and 31-24 10/800)
    Last edited by Kevin; 02-07-2021, 05:55 PM.

  • #2
    Nice writeup Kevin. I saw the line moving towards Tampa as well, but on Bovada it moved back to KC -3, -110. My other book still has it -115. My third book never moved it past -110 on TB.