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Week 10 Notes

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  • Week 10 Notes

    Extremely frustrating losing my parlay by 1 game four weeks in a row. I put in that SF play before I knew Murray was out, and realized how much of a sucker bet it was by game time. My luck is running out or has already happened, but we're gonna keep trying.

    I'll start off with mostly leans then narrow it down this weekend like I usually do. Due to logistics, I always have to put my bets in on Saturday, which leaves me open to line changes and lineup changes, but it's the way I have to do it.

    Again, the new numbering system with the team's current ATS W/L streak in ().


    Colin Cowherd is on basically all of my plays this week. So this will require a serious revision. Every pick is a lean now****
    NOTE: Cowherd's Blazing 5 is Dallas, Cleveland, Detroit, New Orleans, and Minnesota. The last 4 are my original picks, so I'm in the process of switching them.


    Plays:

    New Orleans +3 (L1) at Tennessee (W5). Nice little setup game on SNF last week where Tenn pounded the Rams in their first game without Derrick Henry. New Orleans really let me down last week as a favorite. Siemien ended up being the only backup QB that didn't cover last week. But it's same old Saints that can't put together two good games in a row, especially after the huge win against Tampa. I'll take them on the short line this week with them off their loss and Tenn off their big win. I think the Titan's division is going to come close at the end, because Indy is not going away, and that Henry injury is giving the Colts a reason to play hard every week.

    New England -2.5 (W3) vs. Cleveland (W1). I think in general, Cleveland has been overvalued this season. So I don't put too much stock into Cleveland only being +2.5 on the road. Vegas is essentially saying Cleveland is the better team. I liked New England more until Nick Chubb got COVID. But we've already seen a backfield that consisted of only D'Ernest Johnson and he went off for 146 yards that game. One thing I know about fantasy football, is when a relative unknown dude has a huge game like that, the next game is usually a letdown. The dude is 27, and when you give a career backup a starter workload, they usually get hurt.

    And what is Cleveland without a run game and no Odell and a banged up Jarvis Landry? Pretty much only the hit and miss Donovan Peoples Jones. I'll admit that I've been a fader of New England this season and their short pass game, but Belichick is getting his groove back right now.

    So it's a good spot to fade Cleveland, off their blowout at CIncy.

    Minnesota +3 (W1) at LA Chargers (W1). Hit both overs on their games last week. Minnesota has quietly kept every game close this season, and the Chargers defense continues to disappoint letting Philly move in chunks and quickly last week. The Chargers poor run defense has been noted repeatedly, and they're facing a Pro Bowler this week in Dalvin Cook. This is essentially a pickem line with the 5-3 chargers at home giving only 3 to the 3-5 vikings. Though they very easily could both be 4-4 or more at this point.

    I have mentioned that I think Minnesota is a good team that should be right there at the end for a playoff spot. You can't do that at 3-6, and I would call this pretty much a must win game for them this week. The Chargers are a good explosive team, but the defense is going to hold them back from being a legit contender this season. I like Minnesota to win this game.

    Denver -1.5 (W2) vs. Philly (L1). This game is more of a hunch. Doesn't really have much thought behind it. Denver lost 4 in a row ATS, so why not go 3 in a row ATS after? I hit Denver last week as "sellers" at the trade deadline. A win here would give them a nice cushion going 6-4 into their bye week. Then they'll be 2 games above .500 going into showdowns vs. the Chargers and at KC after their bye. I guess you could say that's a lookahead spot, but it's after their bye.

    San Fran +4 (L1) vs. LA Rams (L1). My initial lean is usually right, and the initial lean here was the Rams. I HATE betting on San Francisco. They make the super bowl one year and their lines are inflated for life it seems. SF is underdog for only the second time all season (lost and didn't cover at Arizona). Putrid home record. Already played in primetime twice and lost both times at home. And they're playing a Rams team that got embarrassed in primetime last week, yet are giving 4.5 on the road, equating to a 10.5 point line if it was in LA.

    So this is not a good spot for the Niners, but they do have some things going for them. #1 I believe the home team has either won or covered all 9 MNF games this season. #2 It's a must win game. Sitting at 3-5, their season is officially over at 3-6 especially in that division. #3. The Niners themselves just got their butts whooped by Colt Mccoy last week without their top 3 receivers and their starting RB. #4. This is the top consensus pick of the week, so there will be tons of straights and probably teasers on the Rams.

    Going against them is the fact that Jimmy G has been struggling and this would be the perfect time to pull the plug and start the Trey Lance era. Typically coaches don't like to throw rookie QBs in against a good opponent to be killed. So Jacksonville on deck would be the perfect time to switch QBs. Trey Lance is still getting healthy I think, and Shanahan made it clear that 5 weeks ago Lance was not ready. He's probably only a couple of weeks of practice ahead of where he was before. So maybe they don't pull the trigger until much later in the season.

    San Francisco has beaten the Rams 4 games in a row, but SF is 1-9 in their last 10 home games. Horrible.


    Leans:

    Minnesota / LA Chargers OVER 53.5. I originally liked the under in this game, but I'm realizing that the total is set way too high. This total should be a 49.5 or 50.5. Minnesota is 4-4 on overs, and Chargers are 3-5. I also looked at some game props, and it's pointing to the over. So this is a stronger lean for me.

    Seattle +3.5 (W1) /GB (W8) game. Russell Wilson should be back, and Aaron Rodgers should be back this week, but with only 1 day to practice. I think the line is dropping a bit just in case Rodgers is unable to play due to illness. I believe Rodgers is feeling sick, and is not asymptomatic.

    Rodgers has been taken off the COVID list and will start tomorrow. I usually don't have a feel for either of these clubs, so I'm gonna pass on this game, and not even hint at a lean. Too many unknowns. Seattle off a bye, Wilson first game back, Rodgers no practice and coming off COVID. Tonyan on IR, so they're down to just Adams now basically. Chris Carson is still out.

    This went from a no play to me leaning Seattle. I thought the line was dropping due Rodger's status being up in the air, and now that Rodgers is confirmed in, it's puzzling that I see Green Bay down to -3 in some places. This is a team that's only lost once with Rodgers back in week 1, and a team that has covered 8 consecutive games.

    Las Vegas (U1) / Kansas City (U4) OVER 51. Kansas City's offense looking inept again last week vs. Green Bay, and Las Vegas losing to the Giants. Just feels like a get well spot for both teams in primetime.

    Tampa Bay (L1) -9.5 vs Washington (L4). Pretty high line here for Washington getting 9.5 AT HOME. This is a rematch of the Wild Card playoff game from last season where Heinicke shocked the world and kept it close losing by 8. This is the same line as that game. Tampa jumped out to a 14-0 lead last game off some big plays from Gronkowski and Antonio Brown. Well Gronkowski is dealing with a bad back, and will either not play or be pretty limited. Antonio Brown was in a walking boot last week, and I don't think he's even close to returning at this point. Godwin is a game time decision, and Mike Evans is banged up as well. Last man standing is old man Tom.

    I don't really like this game all that much. Maybe a tiny lean to Tampa, but they are 0-4 ATS on the road this season, and Washington's line is huge because they're 1-7 ATS this season, losing 0-4 ATS in their last 4.

    Indy -10.5 (W1) vs. Jacksonville (W1). The classic letdown spot after Jacksonville beat Buffalo straight up last week holding them to 6 points? I hate giving chalk, but like I mentioned before, Indy has new hope of making the playoffs with Tennessee losing Henry for the season. Small lean, but not a strong one. Trevor Lawrence is a bit banged up, but he hasn't been good this season regardless.


    No Plays:

    Detroit +8 (L1)
    at Pittsburgh (L1). The Steelers are such a fraudulent team. They can barely move the ball, and the defense has been giving the game away in the second half. Up 14-0 against Seattle and don't cover. Up 24-6 in the 4th against Denver and come 2 yards away from letting them tie it. Up 14-0 against the Bears, and need a late field goal to win. This season Detroit has been a team that's looked awful at times on the short line, but they're getting 8 this game, down from 9.5 at the open. With Pitt's track record, should leave room for the backdoor.

    I'll give Pitt's defense the benefit of the doubt that they'll blow the lead again. Detroit's 4-1 as a dog of 4 or more this season. So they seem to come through when people don't get cute and call for the outright win.

    Ben Roethlesberger finally mentioned that shoulder injury he's been dealing with for over a month now. Chase Claypool has got a toe injury and won't be playing. And Harris has a foot injury now. Detroit is coming off their bye. They just released Tyrell Williams despite being thin on WRs already with Cephus out for the season, so they must be confident in what they have for now.

    Detroit is actually a public dog in this matchup. Reminds me of when I see them as a public dog at 3.5 and they always get killed. So rethinking this one.

    Lions are a really popular of a play this week. They apparently had a ritual during the bye where they buried the Philly game tape. Last time Matt Patricia did that in 2018, the Lions lost but covered the line the next week.

    Big Ben has COVID. Line down to 6.5. Probably a pass at this point. In general I either bet on the backup QB, or I pass on the game altogether.

    I went back and forth about playing this one, but I will lay off. I really do like Detroit, but it was a popular play before, and it's even more popular now with Mason Rudolph at QB. I won't take the Lions when everyone is on them this season.

    Dallas -8 (L1) (U2) vs. Atlanta (W1) (O1). Over 54.5. Not sure if I will be playing one or both. Dallas lost with arguably the biggest upset of the season last week, and Atlanta won outright at New Orleans at a 7 point dog. I said I thought Dallas was playing with house money last week after that SNF win with Cooper Rush, and boy did they act like it. Nice little wakeup call for them, and I think they can get back on track this week at home where Dak has scored in abundance for the last 2 seasons.

    No Play on both right now. I do like betting on bouncebacks, but Dallas did cover 7 games in a row. Could be a reversion back to the mean. This is arguably Atlanta's best team since the super bowl. Who woulda thought considering there's no more Julio Jones, Ridley, Freeman/Tevin Campbell, and their best weapon is a career Kick Returner (Cordarelle Patterson). It's possible I flip to the other side here.

    Carolina +10.5 (L1) at Arizona (W1). When I leaned Carolina last week, I really thought P.J. Walker was starting. Instead it was Sam Darnold who played anyways, and ended up on IR for the month because of it. Arizona is playing with house money this week, similar to Dallas last week, with their convincing win with Colt Mccoy. I liked this play a lot more before Carolina signed Cam Newton. I believe Cam has already been penciled in as the Week 11 starter. I suppose it could be similar to how the Jets signed Flacco, and Mike White led the league in passing the next week vs. Cincy, then Flacco wasn't even the backup last game.

    But I don't like that Carolina has so little faith in P. J. Walker that they would pick someone up off the street and pencil him in as the next week starter already. Cam played under Ron Rivera, not Matt Rhule, so it's not like he knows the system or anything. This game is just puzzling.



    As always, this thread will be revised many times before kickoff Sunday.


    Last Week: 3-1 Plays, 1-3 Leans, 2-0 No Plays.


    2021 Season
    14-11 Plays
    8-13 Leans
    Last edited by recovering77; 11-14-2021, 11:06 AM.
    2021 Regular Season
    36-29 plays, 25-31 leans

    2020 Playoffs
    6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

    2020 Regular Season
    18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

    2019 Regular Season
    15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

  • #2
    Final plays are in. A lot more commentary than I expected this week, but another week where there's tons of stuff going on. And I'm putting as much thought as possible into every pick.
    2021 Regular Season
    36-29 plays, 25-31 leans

    2020 Playoffs
    6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

    2020 Regular Season
    18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

    2019 Regular Season
    15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

    Comment


    • #3
      I normally don't do this. But I'm gonna pull my San Fran "play". Probably still like it, but I'm cheering for a Rams bounceback for weird reasons. So no play on the Niners.
      2021 Regular Season
      36-29 plays, 25-31 leans

      2020 Playoffs
      6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

      2020 Regular Season
      18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

      2019 Regular Season
      15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

      Comment

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