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This week i'm switching it up a bit. I'm still doing the full game writeups but I'm going to only bet on a couple of games. I'll probably do a small parlay on some combination of these though. Already hit one of my main games last night with the Minnesota -6.5 alternate spread (+140). But was extremely lucky not to get screwed there by Primetime Cousins. FYI, Cousins' next game is on MNF week 15 at the Bears.
I'll preface this week with the fact that "Revenge" games from where teams have played each other earlier in this season are like 0-10. Meaning that the team that covered the first game covered the second game every time so far this year. Another clean sweep last week with the Bucs, Colts, and Lions all covering for a second time. The Colts not only covered for the second time, but the score was almost exactly the same! 31-3 first meeting, 31-0 second meeting. Ugh.
Plays:
LA Rams +2.5 (W1) at Arizona (W2). Revenge Game. I remember the Rams were a really popular pick in this game the first time. Arizona was hot coming into that game, and made all the Rams backers look like fools. Cardinals won that game 37-20, with a late TD by the Rams with under 2 mins left making it seem closer than it was. I had Kyler Murray on my fantasy team last year. He carried my team like the whole season, but I did notice that he wasn't as good in a rematch as he was in the first meeting. The line is about the same when adjusting for home field, and the Rams have really struggled coming into this game. They lost 5 in a row ATS until the blowout of Jacksonville last week. I think the Rams even up the series on this one. Arizona keeps the 1 game in in the division, and probably has the tie break somewhere.
Henderson is out with COVID this week. That's a blow because they like to pass so much and Michel a not a receiving back.Also read today that the Rams are planning on going heavy with 2 tight ends a lot more this week like they did last week. Kingsbury is apparently ready for it. Hopefully it's like Rocky where he fights righty but switches at the right time and nails him lol.
Cleveland -2.5 (L3) vs. Baltimore (L1). Revenge Game. I'm not sure why the schedule makers would do this. They have Cleveland playing Baltimore in back to back games with a bye in between. This would probably be a lean on the Stefanski's record after a loss, against the same team no less. What I don't like is that there was a bye, and that Lamar Jackson was AWFUL in the last meeting. And Baltimore is also coming off a loss. Baltimore also has a ton of injuries on their defense.
Part of the reason why I thought Minnesota would win last night was because it was a must win for Minnesota. Going down 3 games under .500 with 4 to go is pretty much a season ender. Pittsburgh is still sitting at 6-6-1, but I saw ESPN saying they only had a 5% chance to make the playoffs or something, which is pretty shocking. But I expect Pitt to be fighting for a spot until the end, just like I expected Minnesota to. The only way that gets interesting is with a Baltimore loss here. Would put Baltimore 8-5, Cleveland 7-6, Pittsburgh 6-6-1, and Cincy at 8-5 or 7-6.
New Orleans -5 (L3) at NY Jets (L1). This is a chase play similar to why I was on the Rams last week. The Saints have lost 5 in a row and 3 in a row ATS. Brees or No Brees, Sean Payton is a top tier head coach, and even in a rebuilding year, I expect him to have competitive teams. As a lookahead, and I kinda like the Jets to break Miami's 5W ATS streak next week, so they'd have to lose here, and probably badly to set that up.
New Orleans has a mini COVID outbreak going on with their running backs. Mark Ingram and Ty Montgomery are both on the COVID list and are out Sunday. I may also pull back my Miami fade next week as Miles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed both recently tested positive as well. That basically gives them no time to practice for next week, and I don't like fading teams with COVID issues. Kinda like the injured player and backup QB systems.
San Fran -1.5 (L1) at Cincy (L1). San Francisco is an annoying team. I've noticed with them that the books give them and Cleveland a TON of respect on live lines. San Fran was a HUGE favorite to win last week even with just a 10 pt lead. Line looks too high for San Fran on this one. Cincy should be at least minus something. I guess it opened at -1 then moved to +1.5. Small lean here. Predicting a logjam in Cincy's division. 1.5 games separating first place from last place.
Leans:
Denver -10.5 (L1) vs. Detroit (W4). The Lions seem like a pretty popular pick this week coming off their win against Minnesota. The same Minnesota team that looked great for about 1 half vs. Pittsburgh on Thursday. The line seems outrageously high for a team that looked awful on SNF. Watch out for a last minute line drop as one of the Denver RBs tested positive for COVID (Boone). And it tends to spread among positional groups. If Javonte WIlliams catches it, I imagine this line would go down 4 pts immediately.
So we've got a COVID outbreak in Detroit. Probably the worst one we've seen this season. Normally I don't bet against teams that have COVID issues, but maybe this is the gimme like that Denver game last season. I'm only doing it because Detroit got their big win last week and Denver looked like crap.
Buffalo +3.5 (L1) at Tampa Bay (W3). A lot of people on Buffalo this week. But I kinda like em too. Tampa Bay is 5-0 at home this year, and it's pretty darn hard to go undefeated at home for a whole season. They do have a rematch with New Orleans next week though, and the finale against Carolina, who we don't really know what they are with Cam just yet. Could also be a meaningless game by week 18. Buffalo needs this game or they risk going down 3 games in the division with only 1 game left vs. New England. I like Indy to beat the Patriots at home next week though. That puts Buffalo down 1 game when they meet again.
The more I think about it, the more I think this game is gonna be one of those complete blowout games Tampa has a couple times a year. Buffalo -9.5 +480 alternate line seems kinda juicy to me. But I don't have those kind of guts.
NY Giants +10 (L1) at LA Chargers (W1). The Chargers have a mini COVID outbreak going, so that's something to watch. Keenan Allen has COVID and won't be playing. Mike Williams are a close contact, but I think he can play as long as he tests negative, and he has so far. Small lean here. I don't like Glennon at all, but the Chargers offense showed up big last week, and the Chargers haven't shown the ability to cover large spreads yet this season.
Atlanta +2.5 (L2) at Carolina (L1). Initial lean was to Carolina here, but I realized it's a REVENGE game. Carolina won at Atlanta 19-13. I'm going to stop myself mid write-up and flip this. Carolina off the bye, just lost Mccaffrey again for the season, and just fired their offensive coordinator. Not sure what the record is of a new assistant coach in their first game, but I'd like to know. Small lean Carolina here to cover a second time.
Houston +8.5 vs. Seattle. I will start by saying this is a very, very small lean here. I hate betting on Davis Mills. Seattle covered last week, but they had lost 3 n a row ATS previously. Don't have the stat off the top of my head, but teams that get shut out the previous week usually do better the week after. Unless you're the Texans I guess, who lost 31-3 to Indy then lost by 26 to Arizona the next week.
FYI, there is also 2 other revenge games, one is SNF. It's the Packers and Bears. Won't be playing it, but I guess I would have to go with the Bears or something. The percentage on these revenge games has to even out sometime. For the Chiefs and Raiders I probably small lean to Chiefs in that one.
Edit: There's actually another revenge game (Titans vs. Jacksonville). It's also the top consensus pick this week. Pretty shocking that the Titans are only -8.5 at home off a bye when they beat them 37-19 in the first meeting. I'm going to lay off this game because I think the #1 consensus pick is due for another win in a row, despite winning last week (Rams). There's also dysfunction in Jacksonville as reports say Urban Meyer has pretty much lost the team, players and coaches with his style. I'll bet on injuries, but I don't like betting on dysfunctional franchises.
So that's 6 revenge games, and I really think they'll go at least 4-2 this week.
No Plays:
Washington +4.5 (W4) vs. Dallas (W1). Washington is a pretty popular dog this week. Probably because they've been hot coming out of their bye, winning and covering all 4 games. Line seems a bit high to me. That's a double digit spread if you flip home field. Fitzpatrick is officially out for the season, so this is officially Heinicke's team now. This kinda reminds me of that Pittsburgh game last week where I thought the line was too high, but Pittsburgh was coming off an ugly blowout loss. Washington is coming off a dramatic last minute victory. So I'll lay off this one.
Last Week 3-2 Plays, 3-1 Leans, 2-0 No Plays. It's quite irritating that my no plays are like 5-0 in the last 3 weeks. My No Plays is where I made a pick but I changed it or pulled it by thinking about it some more, or overthinking it.
2021 Season
25-20 Plays, 18-21 Leans
I'll preface this week with the fact that "Revenge" games from where teams have played each other earlier in this season are like 0-10. Meaning that the team that covered the first game covered the second game every time so far this year. Another clean sweep last week with the Bucs, Colts, and Lions all covering for a second time. The Colts not only covered for the second time, but the score was almost exactly the same! 31-3 first meeting, 31-0 second meeting. Ugh.
Plays:
LA Rams +2.5 (W1) at Arizona (W2). Revenge Game. I remember the Rams were a really popular pick in this game the first time. Arizona was hot coming into that game, and made all the Rams backers look like fools. Cardinals won that game 37-20, with a late TD by the Rams with under 2 mins left making it seem closer than it was. I had Kyler Murray on my fantasy team last year. He carried my team like the whole season, but I did notice that he wasn't as good in a rematch as he was in the first meeting. The line is about the same when adjusting for home field, and the Rams have really struggled coming into this game. They lost 5 in a row ATS until the blowout of Jacksonville last week. I think the Rams even up the series on this one. Arizona keeps the 1 game in in the division, and probably has the tie break somewhere.
Henderson is out with COVID this week. That's a blow because they like to pass so much and Michel a not a receiving back.Also read today that the Rams are planning on going heavy with 2 tight ends a lot more this week like they did last week. Kingsbury is apparently ready for it. Hopefully it's like Rocky where he fights righty but switches at the right time and nails him lol.
Cleveland -2.5 (L3) vs. Baltimore (L1). Revenge Game. I'm not sure why the schedule makers would do this. They have Cleveland playing Baltimore in back to back games with a bye in between. This would probably be a lean on the Stefanski's record after a loss, against the same team no less. What I don't like is that there was a bye, and that Lamar Jackson was AWFUL in the last meeting. And Baltimore is also coming off a loss. Baltimore also has a ton of injuries on their defense.
Part of the reason why I thought Minnesota would win last night was because it was a must win for Minnesota. Going down 3 games under .500 with 4 to go is pretty much a season ender. Pittsburgh is still sitting at 6-6-1, but I saw ESPN saying they only had a 5% chance to make the playoffs or something, which is pretty shocking. But I expect Pitt to be fighting for a spot until the end, just like I expected Minnesota to. The only way that gets interesting is with a Baltimore loss here. Would put Baltimore 8-5, Cleveland 7-6, Pittsburgh 6-6-1, and Cincy at 8-5 or 7-6.
New Orleans -5 (L3) at NY Jets (L1). This is a chase play similar to why I was on the Rams last week. The Saints have lost 5 in a row and 3 in a row ATS. Brees or No Brees, Sean Payton is a top tier head coach, and even in a rebuilding year, I expect him to have competitive teams. As a lookahead, and I kinda like the Jets to break Miami's 5W ATS streak next week, so they'd have to lose here, and probably badly to set that up.
New Orleans has a mini COVID outbreak going on with their running backs. Mark Ingram and Ty Montgomery are both on the COVID list and are out Sunday. I may also pull back my Miami fade next week as Miles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed both recently tested positive as well. That basically gives them no time to practice for next week, and I don't like fading teams with COVID issues. Kinda like the injured player and backup QB systems.
San Fran -1.5 (L1) at Cincy (L1). San Francisco is an annoying team. I've noticed with them that the books give them and Cleveland a TON of respect on live lines. San Fran was a HUGE favorite to win last week even with just a 10 pt lead. Line looks too high for San Fran on this one. Cincy should be at least minus something. I guess it opened at -1 then moved to +1.5. Small lean here. Predicting a logjam in Cincy's division. 1.5 games separating first place from last place.
Leans:
Denver -10.5 (L1) vs. Detroit (W4). The Lions seem like a pretty popular pick this week coming off their win against Minnesota. The same Minnesota team that looked great for about 1 half vs. Pittsburgh on Thursday. The line seems outrageously high for a team that looked awful on SNF. Watch out for a last minute line drop as one of the Denver RBs tested positive for COVID (Boone). And it tends to spread among positional groups. If Javonte WIlliams catches it, I imagine this line would go down 4 pts immediately.
So we've got a COVID outbreak in Detroit. Probably the worst one we've seen this season. Normally I don't bet against teams that have COVID issues, but maybe this is the gimme like that Denver game last season. I'm only doing it because Detroit got their big win last week and Denver looked like crap.
Buffalo +3.5 (L1) at Tampa Bay (W3). A lot of people on Buffalo this week. But I kinda like em too. Tampa Bay is 5-0 at home this year, and it's pretty darn hard to go undefeated at home for a whole season. They do have a rematch with New Orleans next week though, and the finale against Carolina, who we don't really know what they are with Cam just yet. Could also be a meaningless game by week 18. Buffalo needs this game or they risk going down 3 games in the division with only 1 game left vs. New England. I like Indy to beat the Patriots at home next week though. That puts Buffalo down 1 game when they meet again.
The more I think about it, the more I think this game is gonna be one of those complete blowout games Tampa has a couple times a year. Buffalo -9.5 +480 alternate line seems kinda juicy to me. But I don't have those kind of guts.
NY Giants +10 (L1) at LA Chargers (W1). The Chargers have a mini COVID outbreak going, so that's something to watch. Keenan Allen has COVID and won't be playing. Mike Williams are a close contact, but I think he can play as long as he tests negative, and he has so far. Small lean here. I don't like Glennon at all, but the Chargers offense showed up big last week, and the Chargers haven't shown the ability to cover large spreads yet this season.
Atlanta +2.5 (L2) at Carolina (L1). Initial lean was to Carolina here, but I realized it's a REVENGE game. Carolina won at Atlanta 19-13. I'm going to stop myself mid write-up and flip this. Carolina off the bye, just lost Mccaffrey again for the season, and just fired their offensive coordinator. Not sure what the record is of a new assistant coach in their first game, but I'd like to know. Small lean Carolina here to cover a second time.
Houston +8.5 vs. Seattle. I will start by saying this is a very, very small lean here. I hate betting on Davis Mills. Seattle covered last week, but they had lost 3 n a row ATS previously. Don't have the stat off the top of my head, but teams that get shut out the previous week usually do better the week after. Unless you're the Texans I guess, who lost 31-3 to Indy then lost by 26 to Arizona the next week.
FYI, there is also 2 other revenge games, one is SNF. It's the Packers and Bears. Won't be playing it, but I guess I would have to go with the Bears or something. The percentage on these revenge games has to even out sometime. For the Chiefs and Raiders I probably small lean to Chiefs in that one.
Edit: There's actually another revenge game (Titans vs. Jacksonville). It's also the top consensus pick this week. Pretty shocking that the Titans are only -8.5 at home off a bye when they beat them 37-19 in the first meeting. I'm going to lay off this game because I think the #1 consensus pick is due for another win in a row, despite winning last week (Rams). There's also dysfunction in Jacksonville as reports say Urban Meyer has pretty much lost the team, players and coaches with his style. I'll bet on injuries, but I don't like betting on dysfunctional franchises.
So that's 6 revenge games, and I really think they'll go at least 4-2 this week.
No Plays:
Washington +4.5 (W4) vs. Dallas (W1). Washington is a pretty popular dog this week. Probably because they've been hot coming out of their bye, winning and covering all 4 games. Line seems a bit high to me. That's a double digit spread if you flip home field. Fitzpatrick is officially out for the season, so this is officially Heinicke's team now. This kinda reminds me of that Pittsburgh game last week where I thought the line was too high, but Pittsburgh was coming off an ugly blowout loss. Washington is coming off a dramatic last minute victory. So I'll lay off this one.
Last Week 3-2 Plays, 3-1 Leans, 2-0 No Plays. It's quite irritating that my no plays are like 5-0 in the last 3 weeks. My No Plays is where I made a pick but I changed it or pulled it by thinking about it some more, or overthinking it.
2021 Season
25-20 Plays, 18-21 Leans