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Last week went 3-2. Bitter taste in my mouth that Tampa Bay covered despite looking like trash for 3 quarters. Brady even admitted that the whole Giselle situation is in his head.
I'm just now looking at the games, so this will probably change, but I wanted to get my notes down first as usual.
I just remembered last year I did each teams ATS streak, so I'll try and remember to do that again this year.
Plays:
Buffalo -4.5 (W2) at Miami (W2). Both teams coming in hot, but Buffalo missing some key players on defense this week. Micah Hyde just confirmed out for the season. I think it's a possible letdown spot after Miami came all the way back to win last week, and -5.5 (not 4.5) is pretty high on the road. I don't care how good Buffalo looked last week.
Indianapolis +5.5 (L2) vs. Kansas City (L1). I guess maybe this is another shot at symmetry. KC is a top consensus play. In theory the Colts should have what it takes to keep it close. Great O-Line, great RB, good defense, veteran QB, and an above average WR (Pittman). This is a reach, but I've gotta put something in the board.
Green Bay +1 (W1) at Tampa Bay (W2). Here's another try at fading Brady. With Evans suspended, Godwin injured, and Julio Jones really banged up. Also Russell Gage injured. Tampa Bay is so desperate for receivers that they just signed Cole Beasley out of retirement. Green Bay got the win on SNF, but it was all on the ground. Their passing offense is still a mess. Sammy Watkins just got put on IR, and Romeo Doubs is the only healthy receiver they have left. Lazard and Watkins have been nursing injuries all week, and Randall Cobb missed the whole week's practice from an illness. This game could really be a freakin mess. Neither team with healthy receivers, and Tampa Bay with their great run defense. After writing all this I'm not even sure anymore.
Minnesota / Detroit OVER 52.5. The lines are obviously clicking now with their playmakers St. Brown and Swift. Minnesota coming off a rough Monday night, but it was Cousins in primetime, you know that's an outlier. They both should be able to get 21 a piece. But it should be way more than that.
New Orleans -1.5 (L2) at Carolina (L2). I'm starting to think New Orleans is a bit overvalued going all the way back to last season, because vegas tends to give them a lot of credit where it's not due. But I'll take another shot.
Leans:
Cincy -6 (L2) at NY Jets (W1). The Jets had the miraculous victory last week. Flacco is like second in the league in passing yards with Garett Wilson, Corey Davis, and Elijah Moore as his wideouts. I've been fading Cincy this year with success, but I think this is a good spot to take them. Joe Burrow just deleted his social media. Time to get serious.
New England +3 (W1) vs. Baltimore (L1). Baltimore had the meltdown last week and New England got the cover but barely. This is purely a public fade. I don't have much on this one. Baltimore's pass defense apparently is still suffering, but New England doesn't have the weapons to attack them. Their best deep threat is Nelson Agoulor.
Kansas City / Indianapolis OVER 50.5. Mahomes has managed to keep KC successful while spreading it around a bit without Tyreke Hill. Kelce was barely involved last game and they still got the Win.Indy has probably been the biggest disappointment of the entire season so far getting blanked by Jacksonville last week 24-0 and miraculously getting the tie against Houston in week 1 after being down 20-3. Kansas City is very high consensus pick this week, and in order for the Colts to cover they're probably going to need to put up a lot of points. William Gay is suspended, so that's a hit to the KC defense. Michael Pittman practiced and will play which will be pretty big for Indy this week. I wouldn't call this a must win for the Colts yet, cuz Houston is 0-1-1, Tennessee is 0-2, and Jacksonville is 1-1. But if the Colts really need to get their stuff together with the Titans on deck for next week.
Buffalo/Miami UNDER 52.5. Another shot at symmetry. You've got Miami coming off what is probably going to be the highest scoring game of the entire season, coupled with Buffalo supposedly missing 5 players on defense. And Buffalo's offense averaging 36 points a game. I was watching this game last year, and it was probably the worst beat I took all season. I believe it was 3-3 for most of the game. Buffalo scored a couple of times late. Specifically, Josh Allen on a third down rollout running for a TD when a FG would have put the game away already.
LA Chargers -3.5 (W2) vs. Jacksonville (W1). Good spot to fade Jacksonville here. Line opened at 10 and has dropped a ton because Herbert is nursing a pretty bad rib injury. Looks like he's not going to play and Chase Daniel will probably get the start. Keenan Allen also missed last game and we won't know how effective he is. Jacksonville on the other hand, has looked very good this season. Should have covered week 1, and gave Tennessee he ugliest loss last week. The Jags are a very chic pick this week. Easier for people to go out on a limb when the team has been playing well and are going against the backup. I'll take the backup again and see if they can go 2-0 on the season after Cooper Rush got it done last week. ***This is only a pick if Justin Herbert is not playing. If he is playing, this pick is void either way.
Seattle -1 vs. Atlanta. Doubling up on the system play.
System Plays (1-0):
Seattle -1 vs. Atlanta. Geno Smith is 4-1 ATS (0-5 O/U) the last 2 seasons as a starter. Seattle was embarassed last week. Atlanta got the miracle cover somehow despite being down 28-3. But that's been happening this season.
2022 Regular Season
6-3 Plays, 0-1 Leans, 1-0 System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
I'm just now looking at the games, so this will probably change, but I wanted to get my notes down first as usual.
I just remembered last year I did each teams ATS streak, so I'll try and remember to do that again this year.
Plays:
Buffalo -4.5 (W2) at Miami (W2). Both teams coming in hot, but Buffalo missing some key players on defense this week. Micah Hyde just confirmed out for the season. I think it's a possible letdown spot after Miami came all the way back to win last week, and -5.5 (not 4.5) is pretty high on the road. I don't care how good Buffalo looked last week.
Indianapolis +5.5 (L2) vs. Kansas City (L1). I guess maybe this is another shot at symmetry. KC is a top consensus play. In theory the Colts should have what it takes to keep it close. Great O-Line, great RB, good defense, veteran QB, and an above average WR (Pittman). This is a reach, but I've gotta put something in the board.
Green Bay +1 (W1) at Tampa Bay (W2). Here's another try at fading Brady. With Evans suspended, Godwin injured, and Julio Jones really banged up. Also Russell Gage injured. Tampa Bay is so desperate for receivers that they just signed Cole Beasley out of retirement. Green Bay got the win on SNF, but it was all on the ground. Their passing offense is still a mess. Sammy Watkins just got put on IR, and Romeo Doubs is the only healthy receiver they have left. Lazard and Watkins have been nursing injuries all week, and Randall Cobb missed the whole week's practice from an illness. This game could really be a freakin mess. Neither team with healthy receivers, and Tampa Bay with their great run defense. After writing all this I'm not even sure anymore.
Minnesota / Detroit OVER 52.5. The lines are obviously clicking now with their playmakers St. Brown and Swift. Minnesota coming off a rough Monday night, but it was Cousins in primetime, you know that's an outlier. They both should be able to get 21 a piece. But it should be way more than that.
New Orleans -1.5 (L2) at Carolina (L2). I'm starting to think New Orleans is a bit overvalued going all the way back to last season, because vegas tends to give them a lot of credit where it's not due. But I'll take another shot.
Leans:
Cincy -6 (L2) at NY Jets (W1). The Jets had the miraculous victory last week. Flacco is like second in the league in passing yards with Garett Wilson, Corey Davis, and Elijah Moore as his wideouts. I've been fading Cincy this year with success, but I think this is a good spot to take them. Joe Burrow just deleted his social media. Time to get serious.
New England +3 (W1) vs. Baltimore (L1). Baltimore had the meltdown last week and New England got the cover but barely. This is purely a public fade. I don't have much on this one. Baltimore's pass defense apparently is still suffering, but New England doesn't have the weapons to attack them. Their best deep threat is Nelson Agoulor.
Kansas City / Indianapolis OVER 50.5. Mahomes has managed to keep KC successful while spreading it around a bit without Tyreke Hill. Kelce was barely involved last game and they still got the Win.Indy has probably been the biggest disappointment of the entire season so far getting blanked by Jacksonville last week 24-0 and miraculously getting the tie against Houston in week 1 after being down 20-3. Kansas City is very high consensus pick this week, and in order for the Colts to cover they're probably going to need to put up a lot of points. William Gay is suspended, so that's a hit to the KC defense. Michael Pittman practiced and will play which will be pretty big for Indy this week. I wouldn't call this a must win for the Colts yet, cuz Houston is 0-1-1, Tennessee is 0-2, and Jacksonville is 1-1. But if the Colts really need to get their stuff together with the Titans on deck for next week.
Buffalo/Miami UNDER 52.5. Another shot at symmetry. You've got Miami coming off what is probably going to be the highest scoring game of the entire season, coupled with Buffalo supposedly missing 5 players on defense. And Buffalo's offense averaging 36 points a game. I was watching this game last year, and it was probably the worst beat I took all season. I believe it was 3-3 for most of the game. Buffalo scored a couple of times late. Specifically, Josh Allen on a third down rollout running for a TD when a FG would have put the game away already.
LA Chargers -3.5 (W2) vs. Jacksonville (W1). Good spot to fade Jacksonville here. Line opened at 10 and has dropped a ton because Herbert is nursing a pretty bad rib injury. Looks like he's not going to play and Chase Daniel will probably get the start. Keenan Allen also missed last game and we won't know how effective he is. Jacksonville on the other hand, has looked very good this season. Should have covered week 1, and gave Tennessee he ugliest loss last week. The Jags are a very chic pick this week. Easier for people to go out on a limb when the team has been playing well and are going against the backup. I'll take the backup again and see if they can go 2-0 on the season after Cooper Rush got it done last week. ***This is only a pick if Justin Herbert is not playing. If he is playing, this pick is void either way.
Seattle -1 vs. Atlanta. Doubling up on the system play.
System Plays (1-0):
Seattle -1 vs. Atlanta. Geno Smith is 4-1 ATS (0-5 O/U) the last 2 seasons as a starter. Seattle was embarassed last week. Atlanta got the miracle cover somehow despite being down 28-3. But that's been happening this season.
2022 Regular Season
6-3 Plays, 0-1 Leans, 1-0 System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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