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Rough season continues. I'm realizing at this point that it's probably just a lost season for me. Too many changes in coaches and personnel, and legends showing their age. So rather than trying to make money, I think NFL is just gonna be betting for fun the rest of the way. I'll still put the time in, because that's what makes it fun. But it's too much of a crapshoot to have great weeks this season.
Last week 3-2 plays, 1-0 leans, 1-0 Half System plays.
Teams with byes the next week, last week: 4-0 ATS (Baltimore, Cincinnati, New England, NY Jets). It doesn't usually go overwhelmingly like that, but it typically does do better than .500.
Teams with byes next week: Jacksonville, Miami, Seattle, Tampa Bay
Plays:
Detroit +3 (W1) at Chicago (W1). The trend continued last week with Chicago covering every other game, and Justin Fields setting records. Fantasy players are probably salivating at the matchup. I'm pretty bad at capping Detroit games, but they're just a really streaky team I guess. Look great for several games, then look like crap for several games. This is really just me playing the trend of Chicago covering every other game. This game probably goes way under too, but I won't touch that. Also keep in mind that I believe Detroit has still never won a road game with Goff as their starting QB, and we've got the line dropping towards 2.5 in some places now.
Tampa Bay -2.5 (P1, L6) vs. Seattle (W4) (Neutral): Full system play on Tampa this week. I said I would be fading Brady this whole season, and I have for the most part. It feels like a lost season for Tampa, but they still have everything in the world to play for. Sitting in 1st place in the division by a half game, with the tiebreaker against Atlanta. The Bucs may just creep into the playoffs. And based on how it ended with Brady and Giselle, I don't think this is his last season. I think he intends on playing after this season. So we're seeing regression, but he's probably not done done this season in that division. Game will be played in England. Geno is just puzzling this season with how well he has played. I watched that Arizona game, and it was pretty embarassing how Arizona just let them drive the field little by little chewing that clock. They shouldn't be able to run like that on Tampa. I like Tampa here as the NFL tries to appease the Europe crowd with a Brady win, even though Rodgers laid an egg in the second half when he was there. Tampa has their bye next week, but so does Seattle, so that cancels out.
Green Bay +4.5 (L1) vs. Dallas (W2). The Packers have lost 5 games in a row, and I said to myself I wouldn't bet Green Bay again, but this is a decent spot. The line is about fair, I guess it correctly before I saw it. Green Bay couldn't have looked any worse last week. They only mustered 9 points offensively against the worst defense in the NFL. If there was ever a week where Rodgers would step it up it's this week.
Week 1 aside, because I liked Minnesota a lot that week, Rodgers has played well vs. the good QBs, and bad vs. the bad ones.
Green Bay covered against Josh Allen, and beat Tom Brady. Green bay lost against Jared Goff, Taylor Heinicke, Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, and didn't cover against Hoyer/Zappe.
Dallas is off their bye. Green Bay is at home vs. Tennessee next week and at Philly the week after. If they fall to 3-7 here the season is completely over.
Houston +5.5 (W1) at NY Giants (L1). The Texans defense has been solid, and I just feel like this will be yet another close game. The Giants have played almost all close games, but Vegas has to set the line this high because the Giants are 6-2 and the Texans are 1-6-1 and the Giants are at home. Setting the line at 3 or 3.5 would make no sense. If you took away the team names, a 6-2 team should be at least -9.5 or -10 at home in this game. Giants are off their bye week. Home favorites off their bye week perform the worst.
Leans:
Indy +4.5 (L3) at LV Raiders (L2). Onto the most puzzling coaching hire in the history of the NFL. The only explanation I have for the hiring of Jeff Saturday as the head coach is that the Colts are tanking for a top draft pick. So rather than deliberately telling the team to lose, Jim Iray is hiring his buddy off the street with no coaching experience, not knowing the playbook, and setting him up for failure. Apparently the existing offensive coordinator will be calling the plays, so there will be some continuity there. I'm so flabbergasted by this move, that I'm considering passing. Because I'd be betting on them to lose by 1, 2, 3 or 4 and that's it.
The New Coach system is probably the most successful system in all the NFL, so I'm looking closely at this one. But Indy already defied the Backup QB system this year.
Denver +2.5 (W1) at Tennessee (W6). Holy moly. Tennessee has very quietly covered 6 games in a row after that ugly start to the season. Denver is coming off that late victory against Jacksonville in England and is off their bye week. Tannehill has been practicing pretty well this week, so I think he will end up playing. The angle on this one is Denver looks like a team that has given up on the season. They just traded Bradley Chubb before their bye week. Last year when they traded Von Miller they proceeded to clobber the Dallas Cowboys who were like 8-1 at that point or something.
I don't like betting against streaks like this though. So a lean for now. Possibly move it up to a play later.
Cleveland +3.5 (W2) at Miami (L1). This feels like one of the ones that people get bit by cuz of the late line movement. I'm seeing +3 in some places now. I thought people were joking about Tua being the mid-season MVP, but they were serious. This is the same mediocre Tua from last season, except with Tyreke Hill now. And their defense is still pretty bad. Not sure if Cleveland can keep up, but Miami's defense should allow Cleveland to move the ball easily.
No Plays:
Buffalo -3.5 (L2) vs. Minnesota (P1, W2): This is only a play if Josh Allen sits out. I think bettors are trying to grab this before Josh Allen gets ruled out, but Buffalo has been pretty hush about it. Allen hasn't practiced all week and he's got like torn cartilage in his elbow. Probably want to rest him for the long term approach. Minnesota got lucky getting that comeback victory last week, and Buffalo just lost SU to the Jets. I imagine we'll have a good idea of whether or not Allen plays by Saturday night. But I'm comfortable with Keenum and those weapons against that defense. No play if Josh Allen is in.
So apparently Buffalo did not elevate a QB to the main roster on Saturday. Because of this, it strongly hints that Josh Allen will indeed play. Also, the line has been adjusted accordingly to -6.5. This is a no play now.
Arizona +2.5 (L2) at LA Rams (P1, L1): Trend of Arizona playing well every other week ended last week. The Rams blew the game against Tampa, and Stafford ended up in concussion protocol. This is a no play if Stafford doesn't play. Wolford actually started for the Rams in the playoffs and got the win against Seattle. This is a revenge game, and fading the last outcome continues to be a losing proposition. I believe we've had 2 rematches, and the team that covered the first game has covered the second game both times. Although the over/under has been opposite on both. The Rams beat them 20-12 six weeks ago, in a game that really wasn't even that close. The Rams were a -3.5 road favorite in that one and covered, but they're only giving 2.5 here at home. That's a big discrepancy. If Wolford plays, this may flip to the Rams side, but I need more information.
Too many question marks with this game. You've got Murray as a game-time decision, and you've got Stafford that's still in concussion protocol. Could be backup vs. backup, and that's just too much of a crapshoot to play.
System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-0):
Tampa Bay -2.5 (P1, L6) vs. Seattle (W4) (Neutral): Full system play on Tampa this week. I said I would be fading Brady this whole season, and I have for the most part. It feels like a lost season for Tampa, but they still have everything in the world to play for. Sitting in 1st place in the division by a half game, with the tiebreaker against Atlanta. The Bucs may just creep into the playoffs. And based on how it ended with Brady and Giselle, I don't think this is his last season. I think he intends on playing after this season. So we're seeing regression, but he's probably not done done this season in that division. Game will be played in England. Geno is just puzzling this season with how well he has played. I watched that Arizona game, and it was pretty embarassing how Arizona just lead them drive the field little by little chewing that close. They shouldn't be able to run like that on Tampa. I like Tampa here as the NFL tries to appease the crowd with a Brady win, even though Rodgers laid an egg in the second half when he was there. Tampa has their bye next week, but so does Seattle, so that cancels out.
2022 Regular Season
19-23 Plays, 9-13 Leans, 2-1 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Last week 3-2 plays, 1-0 leans, 1-0 Half System plays.
Teams with byes the next week, last week: 4-0 ATS (Baltimore, Cincinnati, New England, NY Jets). It doesn't usually go overwhelmingly like that, but it typically does do better than .500.
Teams with byes next week: Jacksonville, Miami, Seattle, Tampa Bay
Plays:
Detroit +3 (W1) at Chicago (W1). The trend continued last week with Chicago covering every other game, and Justin Fields setting records. Fantasy players are probably salivating at the matchup. I'm pretty bad at capping Detroit games, but they're just a really streaky team I guess. Look great for several games, then look like crap for several games. This is really just me playing the trend of Chicago covering every other game. This game probably goes way under too, but I won't touch that. Also keep in mind that I believe Detroit has still never won a road game with Goff as their starting QB, and we've got the line dropping towards 2.5 in some places now.
Tampa Bay -2.5 (P1, L6) vs. Seattle (W4) (Neutral): Full system play on Tampa this week. I said I would be fading Brady this whole season, and I have for the most part. It feels like a lost season for Tampa, but they still have everything in the world to play for. Sitting in 1st place in the division by a half game, with the tiebreaker against Atlanta. The Bucs may just creep into the playoffs. And based on how it ended with Brady and Giselle, I don't think this is his last season. I think he intends on playing after this season. So we're seeing regression, but he's probably not done done this season in that division. Game will be played in England. Geno is just puzzling this season with how well he has played. I watched that Arizona game, and it was pretty embarassing how Arizona just let them drive the field little by little chewing that clock. They shouldn't be able to run like that on Tampa. I like Tampa here as the NFL tries to appease the Europe crowd with a Brady win, even though Rodgers laid an egg in the second half when he was there. Tampa has their bye next week, but so does Seattle, so that cancels out.
Green Bay +4.5 (L1) vs. Dallas (W2). The Packers have lost 5 games in a row, and I said to myself I wouldn't bet Green Bay again, but this is a decent spot. The line is about fair, I guess it correctly before I saw it. Green Bay couldn't have looked any worse last week. They only mustered 9 points offensively against the worst defense in the NFL. If there was ever a week where Rodgers would step it up it's this week.
Week 1 aside, because I liked Minnesota a lot that week, Rodgers has played well vs. the good QBs, and bad vs. the bad ones.
Green Bay covered against Josh Allen, and beat Tom Brady. Green bay lost against Jared Goff, Taylor Heinicke, Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, and didn't cover against Hoyer/Zappe.
Dallas is off their bye. Green Bay is at home vs. Tennessee next week and at Philly the week after. If they fall to 3-7 here the season is completely over.
Houston +5.5 (W1) at NY Giants (L1). The Texans defense has been solid, and I just feel like this will be yet another close game. The Giants have played almost all close games, but Vegas has to set the line this high because the Giants are 6-2 and the Texans are 1-6-1 and the Giants are at home. Setting the line at 3 or 3.5 would make no sense. If you took away the team names, a 6-2 team should be at least -9.5 or -10 at home in this game. Giants are off their bye week. Home favorites off their bye week perform the worst.
Leans:
Indy +4.5 (L3) at LV Raiders (L2). Onto the most puzzling coaching hire in the history of the NFL. The only explanation I have for the hiring of Jeff Saturday as the head coach is that the Colts are tanking for a top draft pick. So rather than deliberately telling the team to lose, Jim Iray is hiring his buddy off the street with no coaching experience, not knowing the playbook, and setting him up for failure. Apparently the existing offensive coordinator will be calling the plays, so there will be some continuity there. I'm so flabbergasted by this move, that I'm considering passing. Because I'd be betting on them to lose by 1, 2, 3 or 4 and that's it.
The New Coach system is probably the most successful system in all the NFL, so I'm looking closely at this one. But Indy already defied the Backup QB system this year.
Denver +2.5 (W1) at Tennessee (W6). Holy moly. Tennessee has very quietly covered 6 games in a row after that ugly start to the season. Denver is coming off that late victory against Jacksonville in England and is off their bye week. Tannehill has been practicing pretty well this week, so I think he will end up playing. The angle on this one is Denver looks like a team that has given up on the season. They just traded Bradley Chubb before their bye week. Last year when they traded Von Miller they proceeded to clobber the Dallas Cowboys who were like 8-1 at that point or something.
I don't like betting against streaks like this though. So a lean for now. Possibly move it up to a play later.
Cleveland +3.5 (W2) at Miami (L1). This feels like one of the ones that people get bit by cuz of the late line movement. I'm seeing +3 in some places now. I thought people were joking about Tua being the mid-season MVP, but they were serious. This is the same mediocre Tua from last season, except with Tyreke Hill now. And their defense is still pretty bad. Not sure if Cleveland can keep up, but Miami's defense should allow Cleveland to move the ball easily.
No Plays:
Buffalo -3.5 (L2) vs. Minnesota (P1, W2): This is only a play if Josh Allen sits out. I think bettors are trying to grab this before Josh Allen gets ruled out, but Buffalo has been pretty hush about it. Allen hasn't practiced all week and he's got like torn cartilage in his elbow. Probably want to rest him for the long term approach. Minnesota got lucky getting that comeback victory last week, and Buffalo just lost SU to the Jets. I imagine we'll have a good idea of whether or not Allen plays by Saturday night. But I'm comfortable with Keenum and those weapons against that defense. No play if Josh Allen is in.
So apparently Buffalo did not elevate a QB to the main roster on Saturday. Because of this, it strongly hints that Josh Allen will indeed play. Also, the line has been adjusted accordingly to -6.5. This is a no play now.
Arizona +2.5 (L2) at LA Rams (P1, L1): Trend of Arizona playing well every other week ended last week. The Rams blew the game against Tampa, and Stafford ended up in concussion protocol. This is a no play if Stafford doesn't play. Wolford actually started for the Rams in the playoffs and got the win against Seattle. This is a revenge game, and fading the last outcome continues to be a losing proposition. I believe we've had 2 rematches, and the team that covered the first game has covered the second game both times. Although the over/under has been opposite on both. The Rams beat them 20-12 six weeks ago, in a game that really wasn't even that close. The Rams were a -3.5 road favorite in that one and covered, but they're only giving 2.5 here at home. That's a big discrepancy. If Wolford plays, this may flip to the Rams side, but I need more information.
Too many question marks with this game. You've got Murray as a game-time decision, and you've got Stafford that's still in concussion protocol. Could be backup vs. backup, and that's just too much of a crapshoot to play.
System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-0):
Tampa Bay -2.5 (P1, L6) vs. Seattle (W4) (Neutral): Full system play on Tampa this week. I said I would be fading Brady this whole season, and I have for the most part. It feels like a lost season for Tampa, but they still have everything in the world to play for. Sitting in 1st place in the division by a half game, with the tiebreaker against Atlanta. The Bucs may just creep into the playoffs. And based on how it ended with Brady and Giselle, I don't think this is his last season. I think he intends on playing after this season. So we're seeing regression, but he's probably not done done this season in that division. Game will be played in England. Geno is just puzzling this season with how well he has played. I watched that Arizona game, and it was pretty embarassing how Arizona just lead them drive the field little by little chewing that close. They shouldn't be able to run like that on Tampa. I like Tampa here as the NFL tries to appease the crowd with a Brady win, even though Rodgers laid an egg in the second half when he was there. Tampa has their bye next week, but so does Seattle, so that cancels out.
2022 Regular Season
19-23 Plays, 9-13 Leans, 2-1 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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