Week 16 Christmas Weekend

[recovering77]

Bad luck last week in multiple facets. May keep the card short for now, but I need to get started early due to scheduling.

Last Week: 2-3 Plays, 0-2 Leans after changing my combo.


Green Bay (U1) / Miami (O1) OVER 48.5. I think Green Bay is clicking enough at this point to make it a shootout with the swiss cheese defense Dolphins. Miami is really coming into a stretch where they need to win some games or they'll be in danger of missing the playoffs. As long as you have had a competent offense, Green Bay has given up points.


Philly +4.5 (L1) at Dallas (L2): I wonder how much this line moves after Jalen Hurts is confirmed out. Minshew came in last year and covered as a TD road favorite at the Jets last year, then got creamed by Dallas by 25 pts in week 18. Minshew didn't practice today because he was attending Mike Leach's funeral. Does he play inspired ball? Maybe. Philly is up 3 games on Dallas, but if Philly were to sit hurts for those 3 weeks and they lose every game and Dallas wins out, I believe Dallas would get the #1 seed and the bye.

Philly is home against New Orleans next week and at NY Giants to close the regular season where the Giants will probably have everything to play for. Dallas is at Tennessee and at Washington who both have everything to play for at the moment.

I think this game goes complete opposite the high scoring affair that Cooper Rush orchestrated earlier in the season. In a division rivalry game, I see this being a 3-4 point game where they both get close to 20 pts after Dallas's 74 point game last week.

I have switched my pick to Dallas for this game. I have a few reasons that I'll list here.

#1. Dallas has looked really bad the last couple of weeks. Needing a late TD to beat the Texans as a 17 point favorite and losing a lead to jacksonville where the defense just fell apart.

#2. Dallas has not lost 3 games in a row ATS in over 5 years. The last time it happened was in 2017. So Dallas typically does not play a string of bad games like this.

#3. This is still a revenge game from earlier in the season where Philly jumped out to a huge lead but nearly didn't cover.

Indy +4.5 (W1) vs. LA Chargers (P1, W1). The Colts melted down last week giving up the worst comeback in NFL history. They've swapped quarterbacks and Foles will be starting the rest of the year, and Taylor will be missing the rest of the year as well. The Colts are still a mediocre team. The coaching change hasn't changed that much. Jeff Saturday and Frank Reich are about the same, and that's saying something. I think the Colts defense can keep it close. Justin Herbert hasn't been putting up huge numbers this year.

Also, we've got a couple of veteran backups starting games this week in Nick Foles here and Gardner Minshew starting in the Dallas game. Backup QBs have been around .500 lately. I stopped tracking, but I feel like I need to take Foles if I'm betting against Minshew in the Dallas game.


Leans:

I did an 8 game parlay and I'll put most of those picks here. Mainly just eyed them, but I'm going to need a lot of wins to get above .500 on leans before the end of the year, so I'm taking a shot.

Baltimore -6.5 (L1) vs. Atlanta (W1). I know Baltimore never covers and they're in the thick of the playoff race, but the line seems a bit high considering Tyler Huntley has not been able to move the ball at all since he started filling in for Lamar. Logically, Baltimore is tough against the run, and you've got a rookie QB that's likely going to need to take to to the air to win.

Washington +7 (L1) at San Francisco (W5). The Niners are arguably the hottest team in the league, but Heinicke has only lost 1 game by more than 3, and that one game on Sunday night everyone knows why. I expect another close one as Washington is playing for their playoff lives here. They need to win 2 of the next 3 at minimum to stay alive.


Seattle +10 (L5) at Kansas City (L5). Purely a Chiefs fade as they've lost 6 of 7 ATS and they're back to their no covering ways.

Cincy (O1) / New England (O1) OVER 41.5. I'm looking at my ticket and I could have sworn that I took Cincy, but I took the over so I'm putting it down. I realize it was a rivalry game, but I lost all respect for Cincy's defense when they allowed Pittsburgh to score 30 on them about a month ago. I actually like Cincy more to blow them out. But I only need New England to put up more than 10 to do that probably. So the over should be good as well.

I guess I will also add Cincy -3 (W6) at New England (L1). I think this line is too high, despite Cincy covering 6 in a row. The Patriots are in the thick of the playoff race as well. They're no sloaches. And this line should really be New England -1 or Cincy -1. This line is moving toward Cincy giving the hook and I think that's too high for a potential playoff team like New England.


Houston +3.5 (W2) at Tennessee (P1, L3). I hesitate to take Houston to play 3 good games in a row, but I'm looking back at the writeup I did a couple of days ago. According to my calculations, Tennessee does not need to win either of the next 2 games. The week 18 game vs. Jacksonville is going to be a play in for the division title either way as long as Jacksonville beats Houston next week. With the Jags win on Thursday, I don't think they even need to win against Houston next week if Tennessee were to lose this game.

Malik Willis has had some of the worst performances by a backup QB this year. And Tennessee is vulnerable through the air.

NY Giants (U1) / Minnesota (O4) OVER 49.5. Minnesota may be in for a letdown after last week's comeback. This is kind of a hedge play because I took the over 49.5 in the Green Bay game as well. I believe the books are pricing in 3 TDs from the Giants. And if we can get a 24-24 type game the total should go over. Vegas is pricing in 1 Daniel Jones TD pass, 1 Saquon Barkley rushing TD, and 1 Daniel Jones rushing TD from what I'm seeing. And the Vikings have shown they can score at will when they need to other than the Dallas and Philly games or Washington really. The under is 3-0 when Minnesota plays the NFC East, and it probably shouldn't go 4-0.



System Plays:
None


2022 Regular Season
39-38 Plays, 16-21 Leans, 4-3 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays

2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans

2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).

2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

[recovering77]

Some quick thoughts on Thursday Night while it's still fresh in my head.

So Tannehill is likely out for the season. Surprised he was able to play basically the entire game with that type of injury, and orchestrate a game tying drive no less.

Tennessee was up so many games in the division that I didn't even notice that Jacksonville is right back in the division race.

Tennessee and Jacksonville play the last week of the season, which I have a feeling will be flexed to Sunday Night.

Sunday night being a playoff game has so many different plausable scenarios.

Jacksonville wins at NY Jets, then at Houston next week. Tennessee loses both games. In this scenario Jacksonville is up 1 game going into the last game, but would get in from sweeping Jacksonville this season.

Jacksonville loses at NY Jets, but wins at Houston next week. Tennessee beats Houston, but loses to Dallas. Jacksonville likely gets in with a win against Tenn because of the 4th tiebreaker, the strength of victory, which is the +/-.


So after writing all that, it occurs to me that Tennessee doesn't have that much to play for before the last game. The only way the last game doesn't matter is if Jacksonville gets completely blown out by the jets, and I mean badly, and Tennessee blows out their next 2 opponents. Or if Jacksonville loses at Houston next week, which probably isn't happening.

The Houston game matters a lot more than the jets game for Jacksonville's chances, because it's a division game. If Jacksonville beat Tenn the last week, the division records would be the same, as well as their conference record.

I really thought Tennessee winning a game would matter, but apparently it doesn't. And this jets game doesn't really matter either. I'm not saying Jacksonville won't win, but the motivation to win might not be there. If they keep it the loss under 20 pts that's probably all that matters, and the Jets may not even put up 20 in that game.

For reference, Tenn is currently -38 differential. Jacksonville is +6. So Tenn would have to gain 44 pts on them, including playing Dallas next week, between the next 2 games to catch up.


So the 3:30 AM lean is the NY Jets -1.5 right now.

[recovering77]

Gonna do a quick Jets and Miami playoff scenario right now because it doesn't look that complicated. I'm leaving New England out for the moment. You know that lateral cost them anyways.


The Jets beat Miami earlier this season, so if they end up tied record wise, the Jets would get in.

The Jets play Jacksonville and Seattle before Miami in the last game.

Miami plays Green Bay at home, then at New England next week.

So disregarding the Patriots for the moment, the Jets really just need to stay within 1 game of Miami going into the last week. But the Miami / New England game next week probably matters a lot for both of them. The Patriots play vs. Cincy this week.


I can't really do that scenario cuz what New England does matters. But if the Jets win tomorrow, and New England loses to Cincy and Miami, the Patriots would be out anyways.

I'll get back to this tomorrow. But I've said since week 1 that I think the NFL really wants Miami in the playoffs. So if it gets to a play in game, I expect Miami to get in over the Jets and Patriots.

The New England / Miami game is probably a play-in game for New England where they really have to win to get in, which if Miami wins will make the NY Jets / Miami game another play in the week after. The NFL would love that I'm sure. On top of the Jacksonville / Tenn play in.

[recovering77]

Updated Plays and Leans in the first post.

Bonus College Bowl Play: Middle Tennessee St. +6.5 vs. San Diego St. Just a probability chase play. ( Saturday 12/24 at 8 PM)