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This is usually not my best week. I need to get some notes down because first glance I really don't like much.
Almost pulled off my 4 plays, except Kirk "Brain Fart" Cousins ruined it for me. The guy that threw a 2 yard pass on a 4th and 9 is also the same guy that kneeled the ball instead of spiking it to end the half on MNF when he was with Washington.
Last week 3-1 plays, 0-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
Wild Card Round -
Over/Under: 5-1
Favorite/Underdog: 2-4
Revenge Sides: 2-4
Revenge Totals: 1-5
Last week was really easy week for the public. All you had to do was bet the outcome of the previous meeting and you absolutely killed it.
The team that covered the last meeting went 4-2, including the first 4 games of the weekend. If you bet the same outcome as the last meeting on the total, you went 5-1.
3 of the 6 games went exactly the same as the last meeting, with the side and total covering again.
Due to the over being 5-1 last week, I'm going to look for unders this week, but I don't think they'll sweep or anything. I just don't think the over will hit in more than 2 of the 4 games.
Notes:
Kansas City -8.5 (W1) vs. Jacksonville (W1). Total 52.5. To me this is probably the toughest game on the board this week. If this was the regular season, it would be a decent spot to fade Jacksonville off the emotion, come from behind victory last week. Jacksonville also had an emotional victory to get into the playoffs, which would explain how they came out completely flat last week, despite being able to finish it out. So normally this would be a Jacksonville fade, but it's Kansas City, who have one of the worst defenses in the league, and don't cover very often because of it. This is the same defense that let Denver score 28 and 24 on them.
This is a rematch of earlier this year. I've spoken about this game before. Kansas City won 27-17 as a 10 pt favorite. It went under the total of 51.5.
Officially it was a push, but the line was under 10 for most of the week, so IMO Kansas City covered.
The line has been adjusted down 1 pt on the side and up 1 pt on the total. I don't really know if that's fair or not. Jacksonville is a better team now than the one that played KC earlier in the season, hence why the line went down.
For this game I really could go with anything at this point. Kansas City, Over, and Under are all possibilities. I don't think I can take Jacksonville in this spot.
Edit: I just read that there is suppose to be a wintry mix of weather, turning to all snow during this game.
Small lean to Jacksonville. That's my official pick for now. And I think Jacksonville could win outright.
Philly -7.5 (L4) vs. NY Giants (W5). Total 48.5. Philly didn't close the season well. Hurts got injured in the Chicago game, didn't play in the next 2, and toughed his way through to a win against the Giants backups in the last game of the season, which was a Giants backdoor cover.
Division rivals, so they've played twice this season.
First game Philly won 48-22 as a 7.5 point ROAD favorite. It went wayyyyyy over the total of 44.5.
Hurts had an efficient day through the air, and they really killed the Giants on the ground. Daniel Jones wasn't good, but he wasn't horrible. Had 1 TD pass and 1 rushing TD.
Second game was week 18 with injured Hurts and Giants playing all backups. Philly won the game 22-16 as a 16.5 point favorite. It went under the total of 43.5.
Initial thoughts were Philly and the Under. At this moment, I think the UNDER is the stronger of the two. I think the Giants are making up for last season where they lost like 7 games in a row ATS to close the season. They're 8-1 ATS in their last 9.
I've always envisioned that when the Giants do get knocked out, it will be due to a lack of offense. Daniel Jones is still limited in what he can do offensively, and I think that will be his downfall if they are eliminated this week.
I'm also scared that a KC/Philly 6 point teaser looks a little bit too easy for this week. I could see the Giants winning if Hurts and the Eagles play hurt and rusty, but I don't see the Giants hanging in there if it's a shootout.
Officially, my play for this game is the UNDER unless I change it later.
Buffalo -5.5 vs. Cincinnati. Total 48.5. I believe the original line for the January meeting was Bills -2.5 with a total of 50.5. They only played a little over half a quarter, but Cincy was up 7-3 and driving around midfield when the game was stopped. Cincinnati was moving the ball with ease, and Buffalo was moving pretty good as well, but their drive stalled.
Adjusted for home field, I think this line has dropped a little bit. It opened at -4 and 50, but has gone up because Cincy is decimated on the offensive line.
I don't really have much of a lean or an angle on this one. But I guess tiny lean to Cincy because of the injuries.
Also, does the NFL really want that neutral site AFC championship to happen? Those plans all go away if KC or Buffalo loses. And I think the NFL probably does want to avoid that.
Small lean Cincy for now.
San Fran -3.5 (W2) vs. Dallas (W1). Total 46.5. By Sunday night I knew Dallas was very likely going to win last on Monday. Combination of probability and what have you done for me lately fading.
This is the second hardest game on the board for me. I could go the Niners, Dallas, or the Over on this one. Not interested in taking the under on the only team that played an under last week.
This is a rematch of last season's playoff matchup. San Fran won 23-17 as a 3.5 point road underdog. It went under the total of 51.
Brock Purdy's inexperience will show at some point, but it really hasn't happened much yet. I'm considering buying the hook on the Niners. I usually would never do that, but this is gonna be in a parlay, so it's different than laying -135 to -140 on a straight.
Perhaps Dallas gives them a taste of their own medicine as a 3.5 point road dog this time?
Not sure yet on this one.
Small lean San Francisco for now.
System Plays:
None
I'll finalize the picks before 4:30 kickoff tomorrow.
2022 Playoffs
3-1 plays, 0-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Almost pulled off my 4 plays, except Kirk "Brain Fart" Cousins ruined it for me. The guy that threw a 2 yard pass on a 4th and 9 is also the same guy that kneeled the ball instead of spiking it to end the half on MNF when he was with Washington.
Last week 3-1 plays, 0-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
Wild Card Round -
Over/Under: 5-1
Favorite/Underdog: 2-4
Revenge Sides: 2-4
Revenge Totals: 1-5
Last week was really easy week for the public. All you had to do was bet the outcome of the previous meeting and you absolutely killed it.
The team that covered the last meeting went 4-2, including the first 4 games of the weekend. If you bet the same outcome as the last meeting on the total, you went 5-1.
3 of the 6 games went exactly the same as the last meeting, with the side and total covering again.
Due to the over being 5-1 last week, I'm going to look for unders this week, but I don't think they'll sweep or anything. I just don't think the over will hit in more than 2 of the 4 games.
Notes:
Kansas City -8.5 (W1) vs. Jacksonville (W1). Total 52.5. To me this is probably the toughest game on the board this week. If this was the regular season, it would be a decent spot to fade Jacksonville off the emotion, come from behind victory last week. Jacksonville also had an emotional victory to get into the playoffs, which would explain how they came out completely flat last week, despite being able to finish it out. So normally this would be a Jacksonville fade, but it's Kansas City, who have one of the worst defenses in the league, and don't cover very often because of it. This is the same defense that let Denver score 28 and 24 on them.
This is a rematch of earlier this year. I've spoken about this game before. Kansas City won 27-17 as a 10 pt favorite. It went under the total of 51.5.
Officially it was a push, but the line was under 10 for most of the week, so IMO Kansas City covered.
The line has been adjusted down 1 pt on the side and up 1 pt on the total. I don't really know if that's fair or not. Jacksonville is a better team now than the one that played KC earlier in the season, hence why the line went down.
For this game I really could go with anything at this point. Kansas City, Over, and Under are all possibilities. I don't think I can take Jacksonville in this spot.
Edit: I just read that there is suppose to be a wintry mix of weather, turning to all snow during this game.
Small lean to Jacksonville. That's my official pick for now. And I think Jacksonville could win outright.
Philly -7.5 (L4) vs. NY Giants (W5). Total 48.5. Philly didn't close the season well. Hurts got injured in the Chicago game, didn't play in the next 2, and toughed his way through to a win against the Giants backups in the last game of the season, which was a Giants backdoor cover.
Division rivals, so they've played twice this season.
First game Philly won 48-22 as a 7.5 point ROAD favorite. It went wayyyyyy over the total of 44.5.
Hurts had an efficient day through the air, and they really killed the Giants on the ground. Daniel Jones wasn't good, but he wasn't horrible. Had 1 TD pass and 1 rushing TD.
Second game was week 18 with injured Hurts and Giants playing all backups. Philly won the game 22-16 as a 16.5 point favorite. It went under the total of 43.5.
Initial thoughts were Philly and the Under. At this moment, I think the UNDER is the stronger of the two. I think the Giants are making up for last season where they lost like 7 games in a row ATS to close the season. They're 8-1 ATS in their last 9.
I've always envisioned that when the Giants do get knocked out, it will be due to a lack of offense. Daniel Jones is still limited in what he can do offensively, and I think that will be his downfall if they are eliminated this week.
I'm also scared that a KC/Philly 6 point teaser looks a little bit too easy for this week. I could see the Giants winning if Hurts and the Eagles play hurt and rusty, but I don't see the Giants hanging in there if it's a shootout.
Officially, my play for this game is the UNDER unless I change it later.
Buffalo -5.5 vs. Cincinnati. Total 48.5. I believe the original line for the January meeting was Bills -2.5 with a total of 50.5. They only played a little over half a quarter, but Cincy was up 7-3 and driving around midfield when the game was stopped. Cincinnati was moving the ball with ease, and Buffalo was moving pretty good as well, but their drive stalled.
Adjusted for home field, I think this line has dropped a little bit. It opened at -4 and 50, but has gone up because Cincy is decimated on the offensive line.
I don't really have much of a lean or an angle on this one. But I guess tiny lean to Cincy because of the injuries.
Also, does the NFL really want that neutral site AFC championship to happen? Those plans all go away if KC or Buffalo loses. And I think the NFL probably does want to avoid that.
Small lean Cincy for now.
San Fran -3.5 (W2) vs. Dallas (W1). Total 46.5. By Sunday night I knew Dallas was very likely going to win last on Monday. Combination of probability and what have you done for me lately fading.
This is the second hardest game on the board for me. I could go the Niners, Dallas, or the Over on this one. Not interested in taking the under on the only team that played an under last week.
This is a rematch of last season's playoff matchup. San Fran won 23-17 as a 3.5 point road underdog. It went under the total of 51.
Brock Purdy's inexperience will show at some point, but it really hasn't happened much yet. I'm considering buying the hook on the Niners. I usually would never do that, but this is gonna be in a parlay, so it's different than laying -135 to -140 on a straight.
Perhaps Dallas gives them a taste of their own medicine as a 3.5 point road dog this time?
Not sure yet on this one.
Small lean San Francisco for now.
System Plays:
None
I'll finalize the picks before 4:30 kickoff tomorrow.
2022 Playoffs
3-1 plays, 0-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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