Week 2 Notes

[recovering77]

Not a good start last week, though I did have a good 4 PM and later session that went unposted.


I'll do the usual write-up this weekend, but wanted to get my first play out tonight.


Philly -6 (1-0) vs. Minny (0-1) I went into today with all intention of taking Minnesota after their loss to the Baker Buccaneers. However, I had a change of heart. The main angle on that one is that Minnesota got embarassed by Philly in primetime last year. It's also a myth that Cousins isn't good in all primetimes. He's actually very good on Thursdays.

A strategy I used last weekend was to fade the teams that were really good ATS last year.

Cincy was 14-3 ATS last year including 12 of 13 games in a row. They didn't cover
The NY Giants covered 6 of the first 7 games.


Long story short, Minnnesota covered a ton last year when they were dogs. I think the average game differential was 3 pts or less or something. So if they were getting pts, they were a good bet. I'm trying to fade teams that did well like that last year.


OMG Sorry guys I was writing this and I completely forgot to finish this.

So I'm posting it now. Late I know. With Philly up 3-0.

[recovering77]

Got the push last night, but obviously didn't like it. When Philly was up 20 I told my friend that Minny +7.5 was +575 is crazy value. **** didn't change from last year. Philly gets a big lead they sit on the ball. Almost cost them 16-0 against New England week 1, and almost cost them 27-7 last night.


Anyways, let's restart the week again. Last week 1-2 plays, 1-1 leans. Looking at the lines this week, I'm not really liking anything. I'm gonna be home really late tonight, so I want some idea of what I'm going to take tomorrow.

New season, I need to clarify my notes. The L or W next to a team is their current W/L streak ATS. It's not straight up.


Plays:

Arizona +4.5 (W1) vs. NY Giants (L1). Didn't realize that Arizona was a backup QB system last week. Usually not in week 1, but I guess it was. NY Giants started the year 6-1 SU and ATS. Even though they got crushed by Dallas last week, there is still a lot of mean reversion that needs to happen. Most the Giants wins last season were by 1 possession. Should be another close one.

New England +2.5 (W1) vs. Miami (W1). New England got down 16-0 against Philly last week, and the Eagles let them come back while sitting on the lead. New England's offense must have improved considerably since last year with Bill O'Brien back. If you can get 6 catches and 2 TDs from Kendrick Bourne, you're doing something right. Miami's defense is still as suspect as it was last season. Mac Jones is due for a big bounceback. 2 years ago New England went on that 7 game winning streak with not that much help.

Tampa -2.5 (W1) vs. Chicago (L1). Baker's Bucs with the upset last week against a pretty skilled Minnesota team that looks like they're gonna have the worst defenses against this season. Bucs still can't run the ball, but who needs to run the ball when the Bears defense is allowing Jordan Love to throw for 245 yards and 3 TDs. I mentioned last week, I expect the Bears to be the same old 4-6 win team they usually are this season. This is one of the very winnable ones. I think Vegas may be giving the bears the benefit of the doubt once more this week. But another L, and this line will be 4.5 to 6 eventually. I was actually surprised to see Baker win the job this offseason, as all I heard were good things about Kyle Trask. Baker is coming in with low expectations, to contrast with Justin Fields who is coming in with high expectations.

Indy +1 (L1) at Houston (L1). Indy had the game and the cover in full control until they blew it last week. Houston hung around for a bit, but ultimately their inept offense couldn't score any pts and allowed the Ravens to pull away late. Normally, this would be the type of game I'd take Houston. However, when the crappy team gives pts for the first time that season, it kinda lures people in. So I would take Indy, who the books are saying is the better team, because they are.


Leans:

LA Chargers -2.5 (L1) at Tenn (L1). Chargers fresh off a shootout against Miami. Normally I'd be looking Tenn in this type of game. But the Chargers are a road favorite against a team that's not bad on paper with Vet Tannehill and Derrick Henry still there. The Titans are 0-8 ATS last 8 going back to last season. Tannehill is in the last year of his contract, and most of Derrick Henry's guarantees are finished after this year. I feel like this is a rebuild kinda year for the titans. Eventually they'll want to get the Will Levis his chance to see if he can be the future. I also feel like the Jets would be interested in a Tannehill trade. Him and Cousins are probably the best options remotely possible. So if the Jets offered a 3rd or 4th rounder, I think the Titans would be tempted to take it.

Atlanta -1.5 (W1) vs Green Bay (W1). Me liking Green Bay last week had less to do with Green Bay than it was me thinking Justin Fields and the Bears are horribly overrated. Green Bay had a blowout victory, and Atlanta squeaked by Carolina late. Aaron Jones and Watson may be out for Green Bay. Ridder is okay, but I do like the two headed rushing monster Atlanta has, and some young receivers, and a decent defense. Kinda like Atlanta in a close and low scoring game.

LV Raiders +9 (W1) at Buffalo (L1). Again, another spot where I'd typically take the other team. Josh Allen had a horrible game last week, and the Raiders had one of the worst defenses last year. However, the Raiders were 2-5 ATS to start last season with people calling Josh Mcdaniels overrated. His job and reputation is really on the line this season, and everywhere Jimmy G has gone, the team has won games. So I have a hunch about the Raiders this week. Josh Allen is making mistakes that shouldn't happen with veteran QBs. This is Allen's 7th season, he's no longer a young QB finding his footing.

Jacksonville +3.5 (1-0) vs. Kansas City (0-1). This is just a KC fade, which I should do more often. Ever since Mahomes grew into the best QB in the league, the Chiefs have been awful ATS. If you're getting more than a FG, you must take the dog every time.



No Plays:

When Rodgers went down on MNF, I told my friend I guess Jets are the pick against Dallas. With Wilson at QB and Dallas off a 40-0 destruction of the playoff Giants on Sunday. Unfortunately, the Jets had to go and screw that up with a miraculous comeback with an emotional walkoff victory in overtime. That's not the team you typically want to back. So it's a no play for me. Also, I guess it's technically the backup QB system.

Detroit -4.5 (1-0) vs. Seattle (0-1). Pardon me if I sound like a broken record. Normally I would be on Seattle after their embarassing loss last week, and the Detroit off the big come from behind victory at KC. But I think Geno Smith is due for regression. Never thought he was a franchise QB, and he really struggled to end the season last year. I'll probably pass on this though, as it kinda feels like the common man would probably be all over detroit.



System Play:
Arizona +4.5 (W1) vs. NY Giants (L1). Didn't realize that Arizona was a backup QB system last week. Usually not in week 1, but I guess it was. NY Giants started the year 6-1 SU and ATS. Even though they got crushed by Dallas last week, there is still a lot of mean reversion that needs to happen. Most the Giants wins last season were by 1 possession. Should be another close one.

Half System Play:
Honestly I forget what my criteria was for a half system play. But it would be Tampa -2.5.



I apologize, I'm fiddling back and forth with a lot of these picks last minute.






2023
1-2 Plays, 1-1 Leans.

2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays

2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays

2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans

2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).

2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

[joepa66]

BOL this week and always love reading your takes!