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Another week, another missed parlay by 1 game. It's getting old. But that's why parlays are sucker bets I guess. The worst is when you have Jalen Hurts in a completed same game parlay including over 24.5 rushing yards, and he has 25. Then he loses 4 yards on 3 kneel downs at the end of the game. Why they count those is maddening.
On to the next week. Full slate of games this week with no byes.
Last week 3-2 plays, 2-0 Leans.
Week 7 Bye Weeks: Carolina, Cincinnati, Dallas, NY Jets, Tenn
Week 9 bye weeks: Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, San Fran
Possibles:
Tenn +2.5 (L2) vs. Atlanta (W1). Tenn of their bye week and without their Tannehill still. The coach is keeping it tight lipped, but I believe the main starter will be Will Levis with Malik Willis mixed in. In an offense that was already struggling, against a decent defense, that's usually not good. However, watching that Atlanta game, the falcons repeatedly shot themselves in the foot. Fumbled twice inside the five yard line when they could have put the game away. They did come through in the clutch with 50 seconds left to win with a 50 yard field goal, but it was crazy seeing a team trying to give the game away like that.
New Orleans -2 (L2) at Indy (W1). The Saints have actually played better on the road than at home this season. As I've said before, Minshew is good in small doses. And he helped lead Indy to 38 points last week against a great defense. I like the Saints to bounce back this week after that awful showing on Thursday Night.
LA Rams / Dallas OVER 45.5. Dallas is one of those teams that actually does play pretty well off a bye. Good spot for Dak to get out of that funk he's in.
San Fran -5.5 (L2) vs. Cincy (W2). Line is a tad bit higher than I would expect for a team that has lost 2 in a row against two against a backup QB and a guy that never plays well in primetime. Cincy is off a bye and San Fran is going into their bye. I'd expect this line to be more in the -3 to 3.5 range.
Leans:
Jacksonville -2 (W4) at Pittsburgh (W2). Jacksonville as a road favorite here seemed strange to me, but I guess that's what happens when you've won 4 in a row ATS. I'll have to look into this game some more.
Pittsburgh has just been uncanny about covering spreads of less than 3 for the past two seasons. I don't think I can fade in this spot. I also don't see Jacksonville completely running away with the division. At 6-2, and possibly with a Houston loss, that would be a pretty comfortable lead.
No Plays:
New England +8.5 (W1) at Miami (L1). I like New England, but I admit that it's not a good spot to take them. New England is up a big emotional upset win against Buffalo, and Miami is off a 2 TD loss against Philly in primetime. Miami is going to be known as that team that feasts on bad teams, and comes up way short against elite teams. I may have just talked myself out of this one. Tua has also never lost to New England, and I remember a couple of years ago I was tracking the revenge system, and it did horribly. I didn't track it last year, but this may be a week to make a mental note.
Washington +7 (L1) vs. Philly (W1). Sam Howell has been up and down this season. He plays well every other game. Philly has been the same, they play well every other game. Washington coming off an embarrassing loss to the Giants, and Philly playing like super bowl contenders against Miami on Sunday Night. Coach Rivera is on the hot seat, and they could be sellers at the trade deadline if they don't win this game. They made changes during the long week and moved to a different center. I'm going to keep following the trend for now.
Moving this to a lean. I like the trend, but I don't like the line went up, adjusted for home field. And it opened 6.5 and moved to the hook to the full 7.
Philly could be a lookahead spot with Dallas, KC, and Buffalo on deck. But the Eagles and Washington are division rivals, and Washington gave them all they could handle last meeting. I don't see them looking ahead this week.
System Plays (1-0), Half System Plays (1-2):
System Play: Vegas Raiders +8 (L1) at Detroit (L1)
Half System Play: Carolina +3.5 (L4) vs. Houston (W4)
I don't particularly like either play. Carolina is a no play this season for me at this point. How they managed to not cover +14 when they were winning 14-0 is beyond me. And though I kinda like Vegas getting Jimmy G back, Detroit is off a blowout 38-6 loss against the offensively challenged Ravens.
2023
15-13-1 Plays, 8-12 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
On to the next week. Full slate of games this week with no byes.
Last week 3-2 plays, 2-0 Leans.
Week 7 Bye Weeks: Carolina, Cincinnati, Dallas, NY Jets, Tenn
Week 9 bye weeks: Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, San Fran
Possibles:
Tenn +2.5 (L2) vs. Atlanta (W1). Tenn of their bye week and without their Tannehill still. The coach is keeping it tight lipped, but I believe the main starter will be Will Levis with Malik Willis mixed in. In an offense that was already struggling, against a decent defense, that's usually not good. However, watching that Atlanta game, the falcons repeatedly shot themselves in the foot. Fumbled twice inside the five yard line when they could have put the game away. They did come through in the clutch with 50 seconds left to win with a 50 yard field goal, but it was crazy seeing a team trying to give the game away like that.
New Orleans -2 (L2) at Indy (W1). The Saints have actually played better on the road than at home this season. As I've said before, Minshew is good in small doses. And he helped lead Indy to 38 points last week against a great defense. I like the Saints to bounce back this week after that awful showing on Thursday Night.
LA Rams / Dallas OVER 45.5. Dallas is one of those teams that actually does play pretty well off a bye. Good spot for Dak to get out of that funk he's in.
San Fran -5.5 (L2) vs. Cincy (W2). Line is a tad bit higher than I would expect for a team that has lost 2 in a row against two against a backup QB and a guy that never plays well in primetime. Cincy is off a bye and San Fran is going into their bye. I'd expect this line to be more in the -3 to 3.5 range.
Leans:
Jacksonville -2 (W4) at Pittsburgh (W2). Jacksonville as a road favorite here seemed strange to me, but I guess that's what happens when you've won 4 in a row ATS. I'll have to look into this game some more.
Pittsburgh has just been uncanny about covering spreads of less than 3 for the past two seasons. I don't think I can fade in this spot. I also don't see Jacksonville completely running away with the division. At 6-2, and possibly with a Houston loss, that would be a pretty comfortable lead.
No Plays:
New England +8.5 (W1) at Miami (L1). I like New England, but I admit that it's not a good spot to take them. New England is up a big emotional upset win against Buffalo, and Miami is off a 2 TD loss against Philly in primetime. Miami is going to be known as that team that feasts on bad teams, and comes up way short against elite teams. I may have just talked myself out of this one. Tua has also never lost to New England, and I remember a couple of years ago I was tracking the revenge system, and it did horribly. I didn't track it last year, but this may be a week to make a mental note.
Washington +7 (L1) vs. Philly (W1). Sam Howell has been up and down this season. He plays well every other game. Philly has been the same, they play well every other game. Washington coming off an embarrassing loss to the Giants, and Philly playing like super bowl contenders against Miami on Sunday Night. Coach Rivera is on the hot seat, and they could be sellers at the trade deadline if they don't win this game. They made changes during the long week and moved to a different center. I'm going to keep following the trend for now.
Moving this to a lean. I like the trend, but I don't like the line went up, adjusted for home field. And it opened 6.5 and moved to the hook to the full 7.
Philly could be a lookahead spot with Dallas, KC, and Buffalo on deck. But the Eagles and Washington are division rivals, and Washington gave them all they could handle last meeting. I don't see them looking ahead this week.
System Plays (1-0), Half System Plays (1-2):
System Play: Vegas Raiders +8 (L1) at Detroit (L1)
Half System Play: Carolina +3.5 (L4) vs. Houston (W4)
I don't particularly like either play. Carolina is a no play this season for me at this point. How they managed to not cover +14 when they were winning 14-0 is beyond me. And though I kinda like Vegas getting Jimmy G back, Detroit is off a blowout 38-6 loss against the offensively challenged Ravens.
2023
15-13-1 Plays, 8-12 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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