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Absolute heartbreaker last week. My San Fran, Green Bay, Carolina, Cleveland 4 game parlay went down in flames with a late Flacco pick, then it was all downhill after. At first glance, I didn't really like any games this week, but it's easier to make picks sometimes when you know you have to be less choosey.
Last week 2-3 plays, 2-1 leans.
Plays:
NY Jets +3.5 (L5, P1) vs. Houston (W1). Honestly, I do think this is a decent spot to take the Jets. Tim Boyle was not only benched last game, but cut as well. His NFL career is very likely over, and for good reason. IMO CJ Stroud hasn't faired too well against good defenses. Houston is also going to miss Tank Dell who is out for the rest of the season. They're down to Nico Collins now, who is a good one, but their run game has struggled this season. Young QB playing on the road against Zach Wilson, who really has nothing to lose at this point. The pressure is off. They benched him just to say I'm sorry and bring him back.
Wilson is auditioning for his next team, as the Jets have informed him he will be traded this offseason. His career can't be saved in New York, but he's gonna wanna show some upside so another team invests time in continuing to develop him.
Also a small note. Kaimi Fairbairn is out another week, and his backup Matt Ammendola has not been good with field goals in his absence. So there could be some points left on the field there for Houston.
Jacksonville +2.5 (L1) at Cleveland (L2). I gave Flacco his one chance last week, and I'm not doing it again. CJ Beathard is a bit of a wild card, as he had good games starting in San Fran, but he's up and down like any backup. I think with the weapons Jacksonville has, he can pull out a win. Trevor Lawrence may be a Franchise QB, but his numbers aren't all that impressive this year. Jacksonville is 8-4, but Lawrence only has 14 TDs and 7 INTs in 12 games. That's about 1 TD pass a game, and that's pretty much all it took.
I completely misread the injury report on this one. Trevor Lawrence is expected to start, though he's expected to be severely limited. I highlight the word, expected. It's not a good situation against Cleveland's tough run defense, but I'm still leaning the Jags way for now.
Seattle +14 (W1) at San Francisco (W4). Watching Geno Smith's status for this game, as he is a Game Time Decision. I'd only play Seattle if Lock is starting. Yes he's horrible, but this is a decent spot for a division rival with a backup to creep up on the Niners off one of their biggest wins in years against Philadelphia. The newly crowned "best team in the league" could be ripe for a letdown like after they beat Dallas earlier this year.
This is likely a no play if Geno Smith starts. My best guess is that he does, as it's a groin and Geno went back out there with the game on the line against the Rams with an injured arm. I still may play it anyways even with Geno just because it's a decent spot.
Geno is trending in the wrong direction apparently. I'll lock this in as a play for now. Could drop it later, but for now it's a play.
Minnesota -3 (L1) at LV Raiders (L1). This line really jumps out to me with the Raiders off a bye, off their meltdown not covering +10 after going up 14-0 against the Chiefs. Josh Dobbs off throwing 4 INTs in primetime and almost losing his job during their bye week as well. The fact that Minnesota could/should have won that game just proves how good that Minnesota defense has been this season. For them to be giving a full 3 on the road after Monday's performance is a bit telling.
Leans:
LA Chargers -2.5 (W1) vs. Denver (L1). Whenever the Chargers get down on their record, I usually try and bet them to get closer to .500 because they're usually right there for a playoff spot by the end. A loss here would put them at 5-8, with 4 games to go. Yes, capable of winning out, but a win here makes it more realistic that they will be contending until the last weekend.
Cincinnati +1.5 (W1) vs. Indy (W4). This is a bit of a chase against Indy at this point. They've covered 4 games in a row as a tiny favorite. Last week they got lucky that Tenn missed the XP and didn't take the lead on the last TD. At worst, Indy kicks a FG and Tenn pushes the +2. Browning has played two solid games so far. He said he knows the system, and I guess he really does. Indy's defense continues to not impress me. They allowed 28 points to the Titans who hadn't scored more than 17 in over a month.
This is just a hunch, but I see a ton of featured Cincy player props tomorrow. Can't take them in that case.
Detroit (O4) / Chicago (U1) OVER 43. This is a bit of a square play, as it is a rematch of earlier in the season where Chicago covered as a 7.5 pt away dog, and the game sailed over the total of 47.5 by a score of 31-26, yet the total dropped by 4.5. I guess Justin Fields learned a thing or two about playing conservatively and winning games by seeing Bagent play. I just feel Justin Fields is ready to implode/explode one of these games, and Detroit's defense has been ripe for getting healthy. They've allowed an average of 30.25 points in their last 4 games.
I probably can't play this one. Too obvious. I checked the weather and it's gonna be 35 degrees and cloudy, but no rain or snow tomorrow. That 4.5 pt drop in the total is too much for me.
No Plays:
LA Rams +7.5 (W3) at Baltimore (W2). Harbaugh off a bye. The Rams have been playing very well offensively lately. Not sure where it's come from, but probably has a lot to do with Kyren Williams' emergence. Baltimore has won and covered 2 in a row, but it's been lucky. They were in trouble going down to Cincinnati on Thursday Night, and got bailed out by the Burrow injury. They let the Chargers hang around the entire game, then got a lucky backdoor cover because Zay Flowers never learned to fall down when the game is over. The Rams are pretty tough against the run this season, and the Ravens haven't been running away with games. They do just enough to win sometimes, and I think taking the TD and the hook may be the best play here.
I'm not too far from Baltimore, and it's gonna be a rainy day with a flood watch. So look out for crappy conditions. One would think that favors the Ravens with Edwards, Mitchell, and Lamar, but if it's that low scoring, then 7.5 pts may come in handy.
Just read that Harbaugh's record off a bye is pretty decent. The Rams offensive resurgence may be a bit overblown. The Cardinals defense has been pretty bad at times, and that was a 20-19 game with 4 minutes left last week. It got a bit inflated after a turnover and the Browns having to go 4th down deep into their own territory.
So I'll make this a lean or a no play. This is a no play with a lean towards Baltimore now.
System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-3):
None
2023
27-28-1 Plays, 18-19 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Last week 2-3 plays, 2-1 leans.
Plays:
NY Jets +3.5 (L5, P1) vs. Houston (W1). Honestly, I do think this is a decent spot to take the Jets. Tim Boyle was not only benched last game, but cut as well. His NFL career is very likely over, and for good reason. IMO CJ Stroud hasn't faired too well against good defenses. Houston is also going to miss Tank Dell who is out for the rest of the season. They're down to Nico Collins now, who is a good one, but their run game has struggled this season. Young QB playing on the road against Zach Wilson, who really has nothing to lose at this point. The pressure is off. They benched him just to say I'm sorry and bring him back.
Wilson is auditioning for his next team, as the Jets have informed him he will be traded this offseason. His career can't be saved in New York, but he's gonna wanna show some upside so another team invests time in continuing to develop him.
Also a small note. Kaimi Fairbairn is out another week, and his backup Matt Ammendola has not been good with field goals in his absence. So there could be some points left on the field there for Houston.
Jacksonville +2.5 (L1) at Cleveland (L2). I gave Flacco his one chance last week, and I'm not doing it again. CJ Beathard is a bit of a wild card, as he had good games starting in San Fran, but he's up and down like any backup. I think with the weapons Jacksonville has, he can pull out a win. Trevor Lawrence may be a Franchise QB, but his numbers aren't all that impressive this year. Jacksonville is 8-4, but Lawrence only has 14 TDs and 7 INTs in 12 games. That's about 1 TD pass a game, and that's pretty much all it took.
I completely misread the injury report on this one. Trevor Lawrence is expected to start, though he's expected to be severely limited. I highlight the word, expected. It's not a good situation against Cleveland's tough run defense, but I'm still leaning the Jags way for now.
Seattle +14 (W1) at San Francisco (W4). Watching Geno Smith's status for this game, as he is a Game Time Decision. I'd only play Seattle if Lock is starting. Yes he's horrible, but this is a decent spot for a division rival with a backup to creep up on the Niners off one of their biggest wins in years against Philadelphia. The newly crowned "best team in the league" could be ripe for a letdown like after they beat Dallas earlier this year.
This is likely a no play if Geno Smith starts. My best guess is that he does, as it's a groin and Geno went back out there with the game on the line against the Rams with an injured arm. I still may play it anyways even with Geno just because it's a decent spot.
Geno is trending in the wrong direction apparently. I'll lock this in as a play for now. Could drop it later, but for now it's a play.
Minnesota -3 (L1) at LV Raiders (L1). This line really jumps out to me with the Raiders off a bye, off their meltdown not covering +10 after going up 14-0 against the Chiefs. Josh Dobbs off throwing 4 INTs in primetime and almost losing his job during their bye week as well. The fact that Minnesota could/should have won that game just proves how good that Minnesota defense has been this season. For them to be giving a full 3 on the road after Monday's performance is a bit telling.
Leans:
LA Chargers -2.5 (W1) vs. Denver (L1). Whenever the Chargers get down on their record, I usually try and bet them to get closer to .500 because they're usually right there for a playoff spot by the end. A loss here would put them at 5-8, with 4 games to go. Yes, capable of winning out, but a win here makes it more realistic that they will be contending until the last weekend.
Cincinnati +1.5 (W1) vs. Indy (W4). This is a bit of a chase against Indy at this point. They've covered 4 games in a row as a tiny favorite. Last week they got lucky that Tenn missed the XP and didn't take the lead on the last TD. At worst, Indy kicks a FG and Tenn pushes the +2. Browning has played two solid games so far. He said he knows the system, and I guess he really does. Indy's defense continues to not impress me. They allowed 28 points to the Titans who hadn't scored more than 17 in over a month.
This is just a hunch, but I see a ton of featured Cincy player props tomorrow. Can't take them in that case.
Detroit (O4) / Chicago (U1) OVER 43. This is a bit of a square play, as it is a rematch of earlier in the season where Chicago covered as a 7.5 pt away dog, and the game sailed over the total of 47.5 by a score of 31-26, yet the total dropped by 4.5. I guess Justin Fields learned a thing or two about playing conservatively and winning games by seeing Bagent play. I just feel Justin Fields is ready to implode/explode one of these games, and Detroit's defense has been ripe for getting healthy. They've allowed an average of 30.25 points in their last 4 games.
I probably can't play this one. Too obvious. I checked the weather and it's gonna be 35 degrees and cloudy, but no rain or snow tomorrow. That 4.5 pt drop in the total is too much for me.
No Plays:
LA Rams +7.5 (W3) at Baltimore (W2). Harbaugh off a bye. The Rams have been playing very well offensively lately. Not sure where it's come from, but probably has a lot to do with Kyren Williams' emergence. Baltimore has won and covered 2 in a row, but it's been lucky. They were in trouble going down to Cincinnati on Thursday Night, and got bailed out by the Burrow injury. They let the Chargers hang around the entire game, then got a lucky backdoor cover because Zay Flowers never learned to fall down when the game is over. The Rams are pretty tough against the run this season, and the Ravens haven't been running away with games. They do just enough to win sometimes, and I think taking the TD and the hook may be the best play here.
I'm not too far from Baltimore, and it's gonna be a rainy day with a flood watch. So look out for crappy conditions. One would think that favors the Ravens with Edwards, Mitchell, and Lamar, but if it's that low scoring, then 7.5 pts may come in handy.
Just read that Harbaugh's record off a bye is pretty decent. The Rams offensive resurgence may be a bit overblown. The Cardinals defense has been pretty bad at times, and that was a 20-19 game with 4 minutes left last week. It got a bit inflated after a turnover and the Browns having to go 4th down deep into their own territory.
So I'll make this a lean or a no play. This is a no play with a lean towards Baltimore now.
System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-3):
None
2023
27-28-1 Plays, 18-19 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs