Week 16 Notes

[recovering77]

The Washington Commanders really let me down last week. The worst part was that Jacoby Brissett came in and immediately threw 2 TD passes. Woulda covered that game if 1) the Rams didn't go for 2 up 19 pts in the 4th quarter. And 2) if Washington didn't miss the XP and Ron Rivera was a bit more creative like some of these head coaches and went for 2 down 8 just to put pressure on the other team.

The Buffalo / Seattle combo came together nicely last week, and Dallas is still firmly in the driver's seat for the division.

Last week 2-2 plays, 2-0 leans.

Getting my Saturday play out now. We'll see what I come up with otherwise.



Plays:

Pittsburgh +3 (L3) vs. Cincinnati (P1, W2). Cincinnati with the 2 TD comeback last week, and Pittsburgh blowing a 2 TD lead. I was on the losing end of both of those, unposted though. I pause a bit, because Cincy giving 3 on the road, without Burrow and Chase, seems a bit high to me. But I feel like I can't use the standard home field deviation with Pittsburgh, because their lines tend to be pickem whether they're on the road or at home. This is a rematch, earlier in the season the Steelers won 16-10 in Cincinnati as a two point favorite in Browning's first start.

The Steelers are really a mess right now. Down to their third string QB, no run game with overweight Najee Harris as their lead back, and George Pickens Jr. refusing to block for fear of getting hurt. Still, Mike Tomlin's teams are usually in the mix for a playoff spot, and they've got at Seattle and at Baltimore on deck. A loss to the Bengals would be a huge blow, as the Steelers could only get to a max 9 wins with a loss, and Cincy would already have 9 with a win (at KC, vs. Cleveland on deck).

This could just be a spite play for last week, but short line, Pittsburgh at home, high consensus underdog, Cincy off a come from behind OT win, in a game Pittsburgh really needs, I give them the nod.

I don't think Mason Rudolph is the type of QB that will ever orchestrate a game winning drive, so the key will be to keep the game low scoring, in the single digits to teens for both teams, rely on the defense, and keep it within a field goal either way.

And maybe George Pickens will come to realize how dumb and selfish he sounded last week. When you're on a team, and you help with the block that springs your RB, it really is a time for everyone to celebrate.


Leans:

LA Chargers +12.5 (L2) vs. Buffalo (W2, P1, W1). New Coach system with Brandon Staley finally getting fired last week, after one of the biggest blowouts of the season. Buffalo finally rolling with their backs against the wall fighting for a playoff spot. New Coach system is 2-0 so far this season with Carolina and the LV Raiders both covering in their first game. Not fool proof though, and there's usually one coach that loses every year. Not many weeks left to be firing someone mid season. I'll leave it as a lean right now, cuz I don't really feel like stepping in front of a freight train with the way Buffalo has been playing. That's also a pretty high line for a road team.



Favorites went 2-0-1 last Saturday. Time for the dogs to even it up.




System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4):
Nothing this week.





2023
31-31-2 Plays, 22-20 Leans

2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays

2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays

2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans

2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).

2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

[recovering77]

I might be busy and getting home late tonight, so I'll drop down some picks before I head out.

Plays:

Cleveland -2.5 (W2) at Houston (W1). Flacco is 2-1 as a starter, and that loss to the Rams is looking better and better every week as the Rams offense continues to hum. The Texans got the win last week with the backup QB. They'll likely be without stroud again this week. Houston has performed admirably this season with the emergence of Stroud, but without him I don't think it's gonna be enough to make the playoffs. A win here would put Cleveland in a commanding position for a playoff spot, which I said they would get. Cleveland would have 10 wins, and face the Jets at home, and at Cincinnati, needing just 1 or even 0 wins to get into the playoffs at that point.

Also adding a layer to this, with wins by Buffalo and Pittsburgh last night, Cleveland cannot clinch a playoff spot this week, even with a win. So that will add to the suspense going into the last 2 weeks of the season.

Dallas +1.5 (L1) at Miami (W1). Back to earth again for the Cowboys that fall flat after big wins sometimes. Miami still awful against top tier teams. Tyreek Hill will probably be back. I'm not sure about tie breakers, but if Dallas were to lose one of the next two against Miami or Detroit, and Philly wins out against a soft schedule, they'd be tied in the division, with a split in the series. So I'll keep giving Dallas the benefit of the doubt to win going into the end of the season.

Baltimore +6 (W1) at San Francisco (W1). Baltimore tends to play up again good teams, and play down when they're facing crappy teams. Baltimore has 3 losses this year. 2 of them were by less than 3 points. Also 2 of them were blown leads when they got too conservative. I'll take Baltimore to hang in there against anyone.



Leans:

Jacksonville -1 (L3) at Tampa Bay (W2). Both teams fighting for a playoff spot, and both in 3 way races for the division. It's been 3 weeks since Trevor Lawrence suffered that high ankle sprain against the Bengals, and he should be nearing full health at this point. Baker off his best game of the season, and a perfect passing rating against Green Bay. But let's be honest here, Green Bay's defense is not good. Tommy Devito was coming in averaging like 6 sacks a game going into that Monday night, and Green Bay got ZERO sacks on him that night. Really a coin flip type game, but I think both divisions come down to the last weekend or so. Jax division has all pickem games this week, and Saints have already lost, and Falcons possibly can cause a 3 way tie going into next weekend with a win.


Arizona +4.5 (L1) at Chicago (L1). I have Chicago pegged at no more than 6 wins this year. Next week against Atlanta at home is very winnable. Possible shootout here, but I'm looking at the side for now.


Not liking much else otherwise. Also don't like that I picked 5 away teams, but here were are.

[recovering77]

Play:



New England +7.5 at Denver. No writeups. I just think it's gonna be a low scoring game, and I hope the 7.5 factors into it. Zappe has played okay lately, and I think 10-13 pts will probably be enough to cover the line tonight. No, I don't think Denver's defense is going to allow New England to pick them apart like Detroit did last week. But I don't think New England will need much.

[recovering77]

Great weekend so far. Not really feeling the early Christmas games, but I'm gonna try and even out those leans I'm underwater on this week. I did grab Arizona at +13.5 live yesterday, so I made money on that. Didn't have money on the +4.5.

I feel like this is a combo, where one DD favorite covers and one loses, so I could go 2-0 or 0-2 very easily.

Leans:

LV Raiders +11 (W1) at Kansas City (L3). The Raiders are off long rest after their 63-21 throttling of the Chargers last Thursday. Obviously that game is an outlier, cuz Aiden O'Connell is not that good. The Chiefs, similar to philly, have lost 3 in a row ATS, though I don't really remember the line gettting to 10.5 against the Patriots. This is a rematch of earlier in the season where KC beat LV 31-17 in Vegas as a 9.5 point favorite on a total of 43. That was the game where the Raiders jumped out to a 14-0 lead on a couple of big plays, then proceeded to **** the bed and got outscored 31-3 afterwards. Taking into consideration home field advantage, the line has been adjusted several points in favor of the Raiders, which would make sense after the Thursday game and considering how the Chiefs have been playing lately.

This is normally a spot where I wouldn't play the game, and I would have a small lean towards Kansas City based on the last few weeks play. But I hate giving that many points. I think it's Raiders + Under or KC + Over, and I don't wanna bet a repeat of last meeting.

Philly -14 (L3, P1) vs. NY Giants (L1). I may flip this if the Chiefs cover the first game. I made a mistake thinking Dallas was in the driver's seat for the division. They were tied going into yesterday. Looks like it's gonna be Philly now, barring a SU loss to the Giants one of these two meetings, or a loss to Arizona. They'll be heavily favored in all, but the next meeting at NY will be a bit lower. Tommy Devito came back down to earth last week against the Saints after that big MNF win against the Pack. I think the Giants defense could keep it close if they can step up. Philly's defense is ripe for scoring pts, but I just don't think the Giants have enough offensive firepower to take advantage of the matchup. This line has gotten pretty steamed even though Philly is gonna be missing several players. Lookin for Philly to get back on track this week.



As of right now, I'm leaning Philly. However, if KC covers I will likely flip to the Giants and just ride with all 3 dogs today, as I already have Baltimore as a Play for MNF.