Divisional Round Notes

[recovering77]

Oops, almost forgot to post. It was a weird week last week cuz I made picks on here, but ended up betting something different on a lot of them and not changing it on here.

I have to go back and see what I wrote to even know how I did.

Cleveland Loss, Over Dallas Lean Win, Pittsburgh Lean Loss, LA Rams Win, Philly -3 Loss even though I wrote TB twice and ended up betting them lol.

So that's 1-2 plays, 1-1 leans I suppose.

Play:

Baltimore / Houston UNDER 43.5. I just feel like CJ Stroud's inexperience is really going to catch up to him a bit eventually. Rematch of earlier in the season where the Ravens won 25-9, with a total of 43.5. The total has not changed despite it going way under. That's not a surprise to me. CJ Stroud played in that game, but it was his first start ever. The Texans scored 45 points themselves last week, and the Ravens have been putting up 30 points a week themselves lately.

I don't see this one being a shootout. I see Baltimore with high teens or low 20s in scoring. I don't see Stroud getting much of anything offensively this week. Baltimore's first games have typically been under in the Lamar era. I believe the under is 4-1 for him so far. in the playoffs, and his only over was last year by 1 point.


Green Bay / San Fran OVER 50.5. This is a bit of a square play considering Green Bay scored 48 themselves last week. However, Green Bay's defense does not scare me at all. San Fran's is pretty good, but they give up points as well.

Since this is a bit obvious, I'm going to leave it a lean for now and revisit before the kickoff.







2023 Playoffs
1-2 plays, 1-1 leans, 0-0 System Plays

2023 Regular Season
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans

2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays

2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays

2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans

2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).

2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

[recovering77]

I really need to stop posting here for the playoffs. Just everything gets messed up and I don't come back to fix it.

The total on the Baltimore game went to 44, but I forgot to come back and change it, so rather than getting the push, I'm taking the L.

Because the Baltimore / Houston game went over despite Houston scoring 45 points themselves last week, that made the over on Green Bay a no play for me. No way both teams that scored 45 and 48 points respectively have their totals go over. But I forgot to take that down, so I take the L on that too.

Anyways, I guess I gotta make some picks and try to even up somehow.

Pick

Detroit -6.5 (W2) vs. Tampa Bay (W2). Baker is pretty inconsistent. He looks great one week, and you wonder how multiple teams let him go, but then he looks like crap the next week. The Lions defense isn't anything special, but despite dominating that whole game last week, Tampa was only up 7 pts pretty late into the game. I think a lot of people were just in denial about Philly. Not a good team at the end of the season. One of the league's worst in fact. So don't give the Bucs too much credit for getting that win. The Giants were up 24-0 on Philly a few weeks back.




Buffalo -2.5 vs. Kansas City. Total 45.5. I'm holding off on this pick until I see what happens in other games. What do other games have to do with this one? Nothing really, but there's trends here.

There's been 4 days of playoff football so far, and all 4 days there has been one over, and one under.

There have been 4 days of playoff football so far. All 4 days one favorite has won, and one underdog has won. Albeit Detroit did not cover, but won the game.


From an analysis standpoint, we've got Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Buffalo coming into the playoffs hot. Kansas City without a ton of momentum. Mahomes has never won a road playoff game, and that's the theme here. To me, this game is a complete crapshoot.


From a probability standpoint, there have been two playoff games where the line was -2.5. The underdog won both those games outright. Detroit was -3, and won but did not cover the line.

So thus far, dogs of 3 or less are 3-0 ATS. And I feel it is unlikely they will go 4-0, but there's been a lot of stuff that defied probability happening lately.


If Buffalo wins, I think it has to go under. If Kansas City wins, it can go under, but it can also go over. So I'm looking at how the total in the first game plays out, as well as the side, before i make a pick here.

But I will tell you that I'm looking for a reason to Kansas City at the moment. Buffalo has won and covered the last 2 matchups since the historic playoff game.