***Udoggie's NFL Week 7***

[Underdog88]

Straight 67-70 -6.61 units

Dog MLs 8-17 -5.25 units



Spun my wheels last week. Going to try being more selective


Bears-110

Jets+3-110

Cardinals+4.5+100

4 units each




Bears/Bucs o22.5 1sth

Bears/Bucs o44-105

Falcons tt o21.5

Falcons+200

Peterson o86.5 yards rushing

2 units each



6.5 pt teaser

Fins+9.5
Falcons+10.5
Chiefs/Raiders o34.5

1.75 to win 2.8 units



Redskins+125

Cardinals+185

Vikings+600

1 unit



I think it's the best number I will find, so I went ahead and locked it in @ betus. IMO getting the better team in a more favorable situation on a neutral site. The Bears showed me something last week even if it was vs the Vikings. The Oline protected well, giving Cutler time to make the throws. Hester made plays downfield an Forte was Forte. TB in a tough spot coming off a huge divisional home win as dogs, where NO gave the game away with 4 turnovers. I think the Bears defense gains some swagger from last week's performance. The Bears numbers defensively don't look good but that is to be expected when you have faced off against some top tier offensive teams... I do not put the Bucs in this category. With Blount likely to miss once again, it's up to Graham to keep the run game going. I don't think he will be as effective vs the Bears as he was vs the Saints. I may be in the minority here but I think Freeman is pedestrian with flashes of good qb play- wr are spotty though Preston shows some promise. If the Bucs become one dimensional it could get ugly. Hopefully I get good Cutler and the Bears win the turnover battle. McCoy out again would be a a huge blow to the TB D-line, but really I think the Bears offense produces regardless of whether or not he plays. Bears need it more and I think they come away with the win going into the bye. I'm not even going to mess with the total here, as it could be a sloppy low scoring game or not.

[MrDecipher]

Good Luck with it . This is a tough one for me and I'm just going to stay away but I'm thinking maybe over just because both teams seem to have turned it on lately and the environment might allow them to both play more loose than normal .. Don't know ..

Panthers baby ! I really like that one ...

[Underdog88]

Thanks Mr D! Would lean under as IMO both teams will play the ball control game.


Added Jets and Cardinals to top. Pitt has been unimpressive to say the least, and this is a good situational spot for the Cards IMO. I don't think the Chargers should be favored on the road, and was ready to play the Jets at a pk. Betus made me lock it in early. SD has played an easy schedule (outside of NE), and I will look to fade them in spots like this, as I don't think they are a strong enough team to win on the road.

[akatdrake]

Like your thoughts on the Bears... IMO they're finding ways to keep Cutler safe, even though the Vikes pass rush wasn't there all game.

You had mentioned the Vikings cover in the discussion thread... any further thoughts on that one? It's the most-bet game on the board, with 90 percent of the public over the Packers... I have the Pack, but because of those stats, will keep it a normal bet instead of weighting it. Check my thread with thoughts... would love your input.

Good luck bud.

[akatdrake]

Also, Jets so sporadic, and short week off lackluster MNF win vs the Phins... meanwhile SDC getting healthy and off a bye...

Mendenhall getting back on a roll vs a bad Cards defense off a bye...

[Underdog88]

You had mentioned the Vikings cover in the discussion thread... any further thoughts on that one? It's the most-bet game on the board, with 90 percent of the public over the Packers... I have the Pack, but because of those stats, will keep it a normal bet instead of weighting it. Check my thread with thoughts... would love your input.

Good luck bud.

A couple reasons why I wouldn't touch GB with a ten foot pole today. One is the line opened at 7 and has been climbing all week, some shops have moved this line 4.5 pts, right across key numbers. Now you have to lay double digits in a divisional game with GB headed into the bye. They also went on cruise control 2ndh vs the Rams, and with the Vikings off a horrid performance I think they could come out fired up. I really don't see much of a reason for GB to win convincingly, and many of my wagers are motivation/situation based. AP off a non performance, I think he will be motivated, as this is HIS offense. With Ponder in (if they are smart) Minny likely stays conservative and ap gets 30+ touches

[Underdog88]

Also, Jets so sporadic, and short week off lackluster MNF win vs the Phins... meanwhile SDC getting healthy and off a bye...

Mendenhall getting back on a roll vs a bad Cards defense off a bye...

Jets need this game way more than the Chargers. I fully plan to fade the Chargers on the road until they prove me wrong. The only advantage SD has IMO is that they are off a bye with Gates seeing time. Not enough for me, still a west coast team traveling Eats where they haven't been very successful.


Pitt may win this game, but given their road performances I could never lay chalk with them. Sandwich game with two biggies on deck, Cards getting no respect in a pretty favorable spot for them. Last season they beat the Saints at home off a 41-10 loss @ SD. Just one of those feel plays, given my season record it could be offbase but that's why we do it :sm:

[Underdog88]

teaser play cuz I couldn't bring myself to fully wager on the Dolphins. Denver doesn't deserve to be a road fave. Everyone on Tebow, but unless he is coming in at linebacker I don't see it. Forget the name, this is a guy who was demoted to #3 on depth chart, and all of a sudden he will lead them to a road win? Maybe, but the Denver D is still bad. IMO Miami team total o20 is a good wager but this teaser is enough Fins action for me.

[Underdog88]

dumb parlay

Bears-1
Jets-1
Browns-3
Titans-3
Dolphins+2.5
Chiefs+4.5
Vikings+11.5
Rams+14.5
Ravens-500

.25 to win 31.43 units

[NevadaJay]

To think Adrian P. is going to touch the ball 30+ times isn't realistic IMO. I say 20-22 is more likely. And he'd need to average 4.2-4.4 ypc to get over the 86 yards. With Ponder playing, yes, they'll run more, but I'd think the Packers would be expecting that...7, 8 in the box. I suppose if AP breaks just one long one, that 86 # is realistic.

I think Rodgers has a field day and throws for 3 scores and the Pack cover the 10pts (7 if you got in early). As everyone knows, the Vikes secondary is horrendous and a CB starter (who was horrible anyway) is sitting in county jail today. With Cook out, Asher Allen steps in and Marcus Sherrels (a former MN Gopher ... that kind of says it all) are expected to start.

Fired up or not, this division game means far more to the Pack than the Vikes, who are already out of it. If you read between the lines this week, it sounds as though the Vikes defense (and perhaps team) have given up on their coach.

Today will either prove that out or show that there is at least an ounce of pride left in the locker room. I'd bet on the former rather than the latter.

Good luck today.

[Underdog88]

was joking about the 30+ touches, but I do think he gets a heavy workload. Regarding the Packers, everyone loves them. Maybe they win by 20, but regardless I just wouldn't lay 10 on a line that opened at 7.

[bluedevil12]

GL this week Udog

[Underdog88]

thanks devil...

Bears tt o22.5

Jets tt o21-115

Raiders o22.5

2 units each

[Daws1089]

let's crush em udog. Do you think the AZ/Pitt game is a back and forth game or does Pitt get shutdown?

[Underdog88]

let's crush em udog. Do you think the AZ/Pitt game is a back and forth game or does Pitt get shutdown?

I think it's a close game, but IMO the total is pretty spot