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Back for another season. Last season did not end up well for me. Easily my worst season in over 20 years. I don't really have a feel for the NFL anymore, but maybe that can change this season. Not sure how active I'll be on the boards, but I'll try to contribute.
Picks will include some of my season long predictions this week.
Atlanta +1.5 vs. TB, Lean Over 47.5. I'm big on Penix this year. Should have won the Heisman at Washington. Explosive on offense. Doesn't usually translate to the NFL, but he showed me enough last year in his couple of games to prove to me that he's a baller. Drake London possible breakout candidate this year.
New England ML -140 vs. LV Raiders. New England is usually pickem in week 1. Usually put up a good fight, but usually end up losing. Think that changes this year. I'm also pretty big on Drake Maye this season. I know Jayden Daniels got all the attention last year, rightfully so. But Drake Maye quietly had a solid rookie season with some of the worst offensive weapons in the league and a horrid o-line. I don't think Buffalo will run away with the division this year. I think New England will make it interesting at the end. Much of New England's success will also depend on how well Stefan Diggs comes back from an ACL tear at 32. If he's any semblance of his old self, New England will have it's best receiver since Randy Moss.
Indy Pickem vs. Miami. Has Miami fallen that badly to be pickem against a Daniel Jones led team? I've said before that I'm a big fan of Mike McDaniel, but I'm making the prediction that he's the first coach fired this season. Tyreek Hill is old, injury prone, and in legal trouble, but Miami still has Tua, Achane, and Waddle. They should be a playoff team every year. But I see them underachieving this year. And Mike McDaniel will be the one who gets fired cuz of it.
If the first coach fired isn't Mike McDaniel it's going to be Zac Taylor from Cincy.
Arizona -6 at New Orleans. This line is really puzzling because in what world should Arizona be -6 on the road against anyone? I realize the Saints stumbled hard last year, but this line should be no more than -3.5. Leaving it a play, but New Orleans tends to show up when I pick against them.
San Fran -1 at Seattle. The Niners are typically overvalued, and the line is moving towards Seattle. I just feel like there's big question marks here after Purdy's big extension, with CMAC coming off an achilles injury, with Deebo getting traded, and AIyuk starting the season on PUP. And Jennings holding out for the new contract. Darnold is an okay QB, but his success came from being in the 49ers system and Oconnell's system last year IMO. Completely revamped Seattle team with Darnold at QB, but without DK Metclaf or Lockett for the first time in years. May take a few weeks for them to gel.
Batlimore +1.5 at Buffalo. This pick has more to do with how I feel about New England than how I feel about Buffalo. If New England is going to challenge for the division, the Bills have to lose somewhere. Only seeing about 4-5 lose-able games for Buffalo, and they won't lose every one obviously. And they'll also lose 2-3 games that you'd expect them to win. I feel like the Super Bowl favorites go down here that's all.
Lean Washington -6 vs. NYG. The Giants are a very popular play this week. Washington was absolutely horrid in the preseason getting blown out all 3 games. The Giants looked great in their games. I think a lot of this non-belief comes from the fact that Washington has been pretty underwhelming for the past 20+ years, with mediocre spots in between. They were decent at times during the Brunell era, great for one season with RG3, and decent for a couple of years with Kirk Cousins. Otherwise they've been terrible.
Will not make this game a play, as I know Washington historically has not been good ATS as a favorite, and the fact that they kinda went all in this season. They took on Deebo's contract, extended Terry for decent money, and traded for Tunsil. Typically teams that go all in like that don't perform too well. Especially off a surprise NFC championship appearance.
Looking at Minnesota -1.5 at Chicago, but probably not making that pick until Monday.
Picks will include some of my season long predictions this week.
Atlanta +1.5 vs. TB, Lean Over 47.5. I'm big on Penix this year. Should have won the Heisman at Washington. Explosive on offense. Doesn't usually translate to the NFL, but he showed me enough last year in his couple of games to prove to me that he's a baller. Drake London possible breakout candidate this year.
New England ML -140 vs. LV Raiders. New England is usually pickem in week 1. Usually put up a good fight, but usually end up losing. Think that changes this year. I'm also pretty big on Drake Maye this season. I know Jayden Daniels got all the attention last year, rightfully so. But Drake Maye quietly had a solid rookie season with some of the worst offensive weapons in the league and a horrid o-line. I don't think Buffalo will run away with the division this year. I think New England will make it interesting at the end. Much of New England's success will also depend on how well Stefan Diggs comes back from an ACL tear at 32. If he's any semblance of his old self, New England will have it's best receiver since Randy Moss.
Indy Pickem vs. Miami. Has Miami fallen that badly to be pickem against a Daniel Jones led team? I've said before that I'm a big fan of Mike McDaniel, but I'm making the prediction that he's the first coach fired this season. Tyreek Hill is old, injury prone, and in legal trouble, but Miami still has Tua, Achane, and Waddle. They should be a playoff team every year. But I see them underachieving this year. And Mike McDaniel will be the one who gets fired cuz of it.
If the first coach fired isn't Mike McDaniel it's going to be Zac Taylor from Cincy.
Arizona -6 at New Orleans. This line is really puzzling because in what world should Arizona be -6 on the road against anyone? I realize the Saints stumbled hard last year, but this line should be no more than -3.5. Leaving it a play, but New Orleans tends to show up when I pick against them.
San Fran -1 at Seattle. The Niners are typically overvalued, and the line is moving towards Seattle. I just feel like there's big question marks here after Purdy's big extension, with CMAC coming off an achilles injury, with Deebo getting traded, and AIyuk starting the season on PUP. And Jennings holding out for the new contract. Darnold is an okay QB, but his success came from being in the 49ers system and Oconnell's system last year IMO. Completely revamped Seattle team with Darnold at QB, but without DK Metclaf or Lockett for the first time in years. May take a few weeks for them to gel.
Batlimore +1.5 at Buffalo. This pick has more to do with how I feel about New England than how I feel about Buffalo. If New England is going to challenge for the division, the Bills have to lose somewhere. Only seeing about 4-5 lose-able games for Buffalo, and they won't lose every one obviously. And they'll also lose 2-3 games that you'd expect them to win. I feel like the Super Bowl favorites go down here that's all.
Lean Washington -6 vs. NYG. The Giants are a very popular play this week. Washington was absolutely horrid in the preseason getting blown out all 3 games. The Giants looked great in their games. I think a lot of this non-belief comes from the fact that Washington has been pretty underwhelming for the past 20+ years, with mediocre spots in between. They were decent at times during the Brunell era, great for one season with RG3, and decent for a couple of years with Kirk Cousins. Otherwise they've been terrible.
Will not make this game a play, as I know Washington historically has not been good ATS as a favorite, and the fact that they kinda went all in this season. They took on Deebo's contract, extended Terry for decent money, and traded for Tunsil. Typically teams that go all in like that don't perform too well. Especially off a surprise NFC championship appearance.
Looking at Minnesota -1.5 at Chicago, but probably not making that pick until Monday.
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