***Week 8 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

Favorites I won't be on

Houston- Too high of a line imo, they just won su as a dog and are now favored by 9.5. Run game is what has been winning games for them, and the Jaguars may be able to stop them. I'm not sure if they do or not, but either way I'm not paying to find out.


Panthers- A team that can't stop the run laying chalk vs the best rb in football. Ponder vs Cam interesting game but it's pts or nothing for me.


Saints- they are on the road laying DD of a blowout win. What reason do they have to blow the Rams out?


Buffalo- Oh god no it's starting. Donald Jones still out so Buffalo will look to have Spiller at wr. Bell likely still out on the ol. Merriman done for year (no big loss other than a warm body). Kyle Williams out once again and I have a sneaking suspicion it's way worse than everyone is letting on. Throw a team that just looked horrible on the road in a rookie qb's first start, hightower done for year/Moss & Cooley out and what do you get? An inflated line. Hightower is not too big of a loss, Fred Davis is likely going to be the #1 te regardless of whether or not Cooley plays with them next year. Washington has a physical defense, which is the kind of D that Buffalo struggles with.

Chargers- they are on the road with Rivers and the same old coaching staff. They are fade or no play on the road for me right now.

[Underdog88]

Dogs I won't play

Cardinals- horrid spot for them to come to Balty. Maybe they cover but again no way could I put money on it.


Miami- heartless team. This is a game where IMO the spread doesn't matter, NYG probably win by 30 pts.


Dallas- They beat the Rams last week, I'm not impressed. Philly got healthier out of the bye and I think the Boys lose this one.





I have nothing locked in but at first look I like

Patriots/Steelers o51- two defenses that are a shell of a what they used to be. Brady should shred the secondary, and I think Big Ben does the same.

Ravens tt over. After that horrid performance on MNF both sides of the ball are going to be amped to get back on track. Ravens D could very well score more than once. Rice prop looks good as well, following the game Suggs was wondering why Rice didn't touch the ball more. I think much like the Jets, the Ravens are going to revert back to what works, and run first.

Vikings- May just settle on an AP prop

KC- better coaching home team playing better ball right now, perception is F'ed up because everyone loves the Chargers.

[Daws1089]

glad you got it started UD. I see no reason why this Houston line is -10 in some places. It is on the way down so maybe it will correct itself around 8.5 or 8, but man a ton of pts. Never a good idea to play on a team after a big blowout win on the road.


Has DET come back down to earth? There last two games have been lackluster, now they are laying a measily 3 on the road to the offensively challenged broncos? Maybe a good time to get back on the detroit train. There will be plenty of people ready to back tebow im sure.

I don't know why, but something tells me cincy stumbles out west off of the bye. It is hard to stomach a play backing charlie whitehurst. Maybe an under here.


Just around the water cooler, I havent heard anyone liking Pitt. All are on NE. I think Pitt has a better chance of stopping NE, than NE stopping Pitt. Neither team is as good as they once were, but NE is really beatable. This could be a spot they go down. Or is the fact that the steelers are home dogs tell you to go NE? Not sure yet on this one.

I think the 3.5 says eagles win too. I was thinking lots of pts in this game.

[Billy The Kid]

Agree on all the thoughts on games you guys pointed out but not sure on the Det number (seems fishy). Despite the win last week the Broncos looked terrible until the final 5 minutes of the game and had a lot of things go there way (on side kick, couple great grabs, and t-bone discovering some accuracy) All of which was done with Miami dropping back and not putting to much pressure on the Timmy. The lions are great at getting to the quarterback and should disrupt Tebows timing even more than the dolphins were able to do the first 3 quarters last week yet they are only laying -3? I don't see how this line entices the public anyway to want to play on the Broncos and see the Lions getting hit at about 92% right now which probably means a no play for me. If the books were expecting a Lions bounce back after a few poor performances wouldn't this number be closer to Det -6 or so? IMO this number seems a little off


Agree on your thoughts on Pitt Daws, NE's D is still **** but there is always the Bellicheck off a bye factor...I think the over is looking like a decent play

[akatdrake]

IND/TEN - 8.5 pts? I know IND is off a blowout, so the line is probably inflated... if they stay competitive (within 20), the line's not even seven pts. Going past the crucial numbers because they have to? Britt gone, CJ2K not on track yet... seems like a big number to me.

HOU/JAX - I have at 9.5 at BetUS... such a large number to lay vs a good defense. Now that I think about it, this line might be skewed the other way because of the performance containing the Ravens on MNF. Houston misses Johnson, but Foster is on a roll right now. Jax still only scoring 12 pts a game... I think if you bet it, you grab it under 10.

MIN/CAR - The line is spot on, but as you guys eluded to, this is a game Minnesota can win. AP is best RB in the league, and if the Vikings had any resemblence of an offense outside of him, they might be worth something on that side of the ball. The thing that concerns me is the Vikings defense against the run here. If not Newton, then Stewart or Williams... Vikings haven't came across a running QB yet this year, and usually they're not quick to adjust. Maybe a small play on the ML or Vikes 1H.

[hodown]

Big week for the books it appears vs. the public:

Saints -14 77%
Giants -10 70%
Lions -3 72%
Bills -6 76%
Pats -3 70%

Gotta think this late in the game Vegas knows what its doing. Three of those teams are road faves so Rams, Broncos, and Steelers have to be worth a look. And the Rams are absolutely putrid but they have to be given consideration. Tough to back the Dolphins against anyone, as Udog mentioned they just rolled over and died last week. They were equally pathetic the week before against the Jets. Skins come in off a loss @ Carolina and Buffalo on bye and 6 is the line? That line flat stinks.

FWIW Philly looks like a good play and group Seattle in with the top group. I think Vegas goes 4-2 with that.

[Daws1089]

giants look too damn easy. someone talk me off the horrid dolphins on the road looking for their first win

[Underdog88]

giants look too damn easy. someone talk me off the horrid dolphins on the road looking for their first win

don't do it, that team is heartless. I know teams coming off the bye haven't fared well, but the Giants got so much healthier- Tuck coming back should give this D motivation. I would be shocked if the defense didn't hold Miami to 17 or less. IMO NYG or no play, actually a game I'm thinking of laying chalk on.

[Reggie Hamlin]

Nice work Howdown make alot of sense Vegas isn't in it to lose money makes me think . Thanks.

Lay the wood with the gmen Daws Miami is no heart Sparano has his house on the market Reggie Bush is talking smack thru the press this team is in disaray big time It's the gmen or no play I will be laying the ten and I think cashing at the window .

[Stifler's Mom]

look at the list of wet paper bags the steelers have beaten. sea, indy, ten, jax, ariz. that's a combined record of 8-24. has someone benefitted from a cupcake schedule?? I think so. the 2 non crapbags they played beat them soundly (hou beat them worse than that 17-10 final score would indicate), and one of them just flat out embarrassed them (balt). they scored a combined 17 pts in those 2 losses.

at first glance I think even a declining ne team wins and covers.

i'll go ahead and make sure Lang doesn't pick the pats first, though....

I also think Cleveland (gulp) covers, and in the steel balls play of the century I may have to back the lambs catching in the neighborhood of 2 td's.

carolina laying points is a no win situation in the long run too, imho. may back the viqueens there....

[akatdrake]

Here's what I have today:

Indianapolis +9 - right away this popped out at me as being too big of a line for Tennessee to cover. The team doesn't have an identity, and the line is big because of the SNF disaster vs the Saints last week. I have to go with my gut. It hasn't prevailed this year very often, but I still have to go there.

New York Giants -10 - few of you have said things about this Miami team, heartless, team in disarray, a coach who doesn't care, etc... Daniel Thomas is out, Moore is questionable (if that's the case newly signed JP Losman may start), and starting Reggie Bush is just a recipe for disaster. Udog said Tuck is coming back and will fuel their defense... I'm inclined to agree though wary.

Washington +6 - another influence from you fellas. First off, I have a few points from my bookie who has a lot of action on Buffalo. Fred Jackson doing well, but getting more carries than he ever does... CJ Spiller an answer at WR with all those injuries? Hightower's injury IMO helps clear up the RB situation for the Skins, as we're one little Torain injury from seeing Helu rock out. I'm high on this guy here.

Detroit -3 - everyone was on Det to start the year, they get a little one-dimensional and everyone off. Good point that Tebow will get his backers... but they were four minutes away from losing to the worst team in the league. Got some luck/God on their side and were able to luck out a win. Maurice Morris didn't have a good game last week, and Stafford a bit banged up but should go. Knowshon Moreno getting the start for Denver and a pissed off Detroit DL should make for a play here.

Seattle -1 - I have a crappy line unfortunately but Dalton hasn't played in an environment like Seattle. Lynch is back, Seattle has an underrated defense, and Cincy does too. I'm going to take the home team here to get it done. Perhaps the under is a better play, but I am not good at totals.

Not thrilled, but not excited this week.

Leans: Houston Texans - yes big number, but Jacksonville coming off huge dog win on short week. Pittsburgh Steelers overs - lots of points scored here, both secondaries gashed all season. Cleveland Browns - are the Niners for real? They've been scoring some points, but 9? Philly Eagles -3.5, Reid off a bye and celebrating the late Jim Johnson will have this defense ready...

[Underdog88]

carolina laying points is a no win situation in the long run too, imho. may back the viqueens there....

Was leaning the same way but I may settle on the over, as both teams offenses should be able to exploit both defensive weaknesses.

[hodown]

Well in a matter of five minutes I just watched the Colts line go from 9 to 8.5 to 8 to 7.5. Wonder what the play is there...

[Stifler's Mom]

Well, Lang has a 100 dime play on NE -2.5 :laughing:

He also has the Colts +8.5 for a smaller play, btw...

[recovering77]

I think if you ever were going to take St. Louis, this would be the week.

New Orleans layed the smack down on Indy on the national spotlight, while the Rams laid an egg for the 6th game in a row. They are also started feely again at QB.

This is the largest line I've seen in a long time, since prob the undefeated NE team. Giving 14 pts is something that you do at home, not on the road. So if New Orleans was at home, this would be a -20 line, so sickening. A team rolling, vs. a team reeling. Public all over the saints. I'm on the Rams on this one.

Not really much to comment on with other games.

I know San Fran always dicks me when I finally believe in them, so I'll probably pass.


The most intriguing game is the SNF game. I believed all week long that Philly was the play, regardless of the line. Now the world knows about Reid's bye week record. The media is just trying to hype up the game saying the cowboys circled this game. Fact of the matter is Philly has been devalued and line would be much higher otherwise. I still can't pull the trigger, but may consider an over as that seems to be how Philly plays Dallas in Primetime.