***Week 8 Discussion***

[CBXU]

Was leaning the same way but I may settle on the over, as both teams offenses should be able to exploit both defensive weaknesses.

I'm thinking over as well, I can easily see it breaking 50 and nearing the 60s. Both defenses are bad and both offenses are solid.

[Stifler's Mom]

lmfao, line goes to 3.5 as i was typing that

[Stifler's Mom]

I wanted to comment on the Lionesses vs the fighting Tebow's.

Without Tebow, Denver very well may the 2nd worst team in the league (Rams). Actually even with him they are probably an even worse team, except for his strange ability to be able to seem to lead his team for late scores and bone people betting against him ATS. They got thoroughly spanked for 57 minutes by what I'd call the 3rd worst team, Miami, last week, but then Tebow and an onside kick erased that.

Meanwhile, Detroit has lost 2 straight after a 5-0 start, and has people doubting how good they really are. I don't think they're as good as they got credit for after that 5-0 start, but they're definitely better than Denver, no matter where the game is played. If anyone disagrees, I'd certainly be all ears as to why.

So, IMHO, with the 2 game slide for Detroit and the considerable public love for Tebow considered, the oddsmakers cannot make DET any higher of a fave here than -3, which is why they are just juicing it, rather than going to -3.5. It's sitting at DET -3 -125 at both of my books, and has been pretty steady there all week. For some strange reason people are more willing to lay -3 -125 than -3.5 -105 or something similar, and the books know this. I believe if they go to 3.5, they may fear Denver money pouring in.
The books are also showing 85 to 90% on DET, but i'm not buying that for even half a second. There's no way on God's green earth 9 of every 10 bets are coming in on DET today. I believe those similar percentages with NO/STL, but no freakin way that you can look high and low and can't find a soul to back the magical Tebow as a home dog. So why the potentially falsified number? And why if the public was so f'n in love with DET, wouldn't they move the line and INVITE Denver money at +3.5?

With the line example above, at the same time as most would rather lay -3 with hugh juice that probably won't come into play, someone like myself would much rather take +3 +105 than +3.5 -115, knowing that hook probably won't make a difference, therefore a win pays more/loss pays less....so it seems they may be trying to convince people who tend to look anti-public to take DEN?

[Daws1089]

i agree. i think the rams are worth a unit. saints coming off of a huge route now on the road..

[recovering77]

I think if you ever were going to take St. Louis, this would be the week.

New Orleans layed the smack down on Indy on the national spotlight, while the Rams laid an egg for the 6th game in a row. They are also started feely again at QB.

This is the largest line I've seen in a long time, since prob the undefeated NE team. Giving 14 pts is something that you do at home, not on the road. So if New Orleans was at home, this would be a -20 line, so sickening. A team rolling, vs. a team reeling. Public all over the saints. I'm on the Rams on this one.

Not really much to comment on with other games.

I know San Fran always dicks me when I finally believe in them, so I'll probably pass.


The most intriguing game is the SNF game. I believed all week long that Philly was the play, regardless of the line. Now the world knows about Reid's bye week record. The media is just trying to hype up the game saying the cowboys circled this game. Fact of the matter is Philly has been devalued and line would be much higher otherwise. I still can't pull the trigger, but may consider an over as that seems to be how Philly plays Dallas in Primetime.

[recovering77]

I think if you ever were going to take St. Louis, this would be the week.

New Orleans layed the smack down on Indy on the national spotlight, while the Rams laid an egg for the 6th game in a row. They are also started feely again at QB.

This is the largest line I've seen in a long time, since prob the undefeated NE team. Giving 14 pts is something that you do at home, not on the road. So if New Orleans was at home, this would be a -20 line, so sickening. A team rolling, vs. a team reeling. Public all over the saints. I'm on the Rams on this one.

Not really much to comment on with other games.

I know San Fran always dicks me when I finally believe in them, so I'll probably pass.


The most intriguing game is the SNF game. I believed all week long that Philly was the play, regardless of the line. Now the world knows about Reid's bye week record. The media is just trying to hype up the game saying the cowboys circled this game. Fact of the matter is Philly has been devalued and line would be much higher otherwise. I still can't pull the trigger, but may consider an over as that seems to be how Philly plays Dallas in Primetime.

[Stifler's Mom]

Well, Lang has a 100 dime play on NE -2.5 :laughing:

He also has the Colts +8.5 for a smaller play, btw...

[hodown]

Well in a matter of five minutes I just watched the Colts line go from 9 to 8.5 to 8 to 7.5. Wonder what the play is there...

[Underdog88]

carolina laying points is a no win situation in the long run too, imho. may back the viqueens there....

Was leaning the same way but I may settle on the over, as both teams offenses should be able to exploit both defensive weaknesses.

[akatdrake]

Here's what I have today:

Indianapolis +9 - right away this popped out at me as being too big of a line for Tennessee to cover. The team doesn't have an identity, and the line is big because of the SNF disaster vs the Saints last week. I have to go with my gut. It hasn't prevailed this year very often, but I still have to go there.

New York Giants -10 - few of you have said things about this Miami team, heartless, team in disarray, a coach who doesn't care, etc... Daniel Thomas is out, Moore is questionable (if that's the case newly signed JP Losman may start), and starting Reggie Bush is just a recipe for disaster. Udog said Tuck is coming back and will fuel their defense... I'm inclined to agree though wary.

Washington +6 - another influence from you fellas. First off, I have a few points from my bookie who has a lot of action on Buffalo. Fred Jackson doing well, but getting more carries than he ever does... CJ Spiller an answer at WR with all those injuries? Hightower's injury IMO helps clear up the RB situation for the Skins, as we're one little Torain injury from seeing Helu rock out. I'm high on this guy here.

Detroit -3 - everyone was on Det to start the year, they get a little one-dimensional and everyone off. Good point that Tebow will get his backers... but they were four minutes away from losing to the worst team in the league. Got some luck/God on their side and were able to luck out a win. Maurice Morris didn't have a good game last week, and Stafford a bit banged up but should go. Knowshon Moreno getting the start for Denver and a pissed off Detroit DL should make for a play here.

Seattle -1 - I have a crappy line unfortunately but Dalton hasn't played in an environment like Seattle. Lynch is back, Seattle has an underrated defense, and Cincy does too. I'm going to take the home team here to get it done. Perhaps the under is a better play, but I am not good at totals.

Not thrilled, but not excited this week.

Leans: Houston Texans - yes big number, but Jacksonville coming off huge dog win on short week. Pittsburgh Steelers overs - lots of points scored here, both secondaries gashed all season. Cleveland Browns - are the Niners for real? They've been scoring some points, but 9? Philly Eagles -3.5, Reid off a bye and celebrating the late Jim Johnson will have this defense ready...

[Stifler's Mom]

look at the list of wet paper bags the steelers have beaten. sea, indy, ten, jax, ariz. that's a combined record of 8-24. has someone benefitted from a cupcake schedule?? I think so. the 2 non crapbags they played beat them soundly (hou beat them worse than that 17-10 final score would indicate), and one of them just flat out embarrassed them (balt). they scored a combined 17 pts in those 2 losses.

at first glance I think even a declining ne team wins and covers.

i'll go ahead and make sure Lang doesn't pick the pats first, though....

I also think Cleveland (gulp) covers, and in the steel balls play of the century I may have to back the lambs catching in the neighborhood of 2 td's.

carolina laying points is a no win situation in the long run too, imho. may back the viqueens there....

[Reggie Hamlin]

Nice work Howdown make alot of sense Vegas isn't in it to lose money makes me think . Thanks.

Lay the wood with the gmen Daws Miami is no heart Sparano has his house on the market Reggie Bush is talking smack thru the press this team is in disaray big time It's the gmen or no play I will be laying the ten and I think cashing at the window .

[Underdog88]

giants look too damn easy. someone talk me off the horrid dolphins on the road looking for their first win

don't do it, that team is heartless. I know teams coming off the bye haven't fared well, but the Giants got so much healthier- Tuck coming back should give this D motivation. I would be shocked if the defense didn't hold Miami to 17 or less. IMO NYG or no play, actually a game I'm thinking of laying chalk on.

[Daws1089]

giants look too damn easy. someone talk me off the horrid dolphins on the road looking for their first win

[hodown]

Big week for the books it appears vs. the public:

Saints -14 77%
Giants -10 70%
Lions -3 72%
Bills -6 76%
Pats -3 70%

Gotta think this late in the game Vegas knows what its doing. Three of those teams are road faves so Rams, Broncos, and Steelers have to be worth a look. And the Rams are absolutely putrid but they have to be given consideration. Tough to back the Dolphins against anyone, as Udog mentioned they just rolled over and died last week. They were equally pathetic the week before against the Jets. Skins come in off a loss @ Carolina and Buffalo on bye and 6 is the line? That line flat stinks.

FWIW Philly looks like a good play and group Seattle in with the top group. I think Vegas goes 4-2 with that.